Kasimpasa vs Fatih Karagumruk Prediction

Kasimpasa vs Fatih Karagumruk prediction for a tense derby

The Kasimpasa vs Fatih Karagumruk prediction for Monday, 16 February 2026 (kickoff 17:00 GMT) comes with the kind of nervous energy only a relegation six-pointer can create. It’s an Istanbul district derby at the Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadium, with Kasımpaşa sitting 16th on 16 points and Karagümrük 18th on 12. In other words: nobody is “fine,” everyone is “one good week away,” and every loose ball will feel like a season-defining moment. If you’re looking for a Kasimpasa vs Fatih Karagumruk prediction that matches the mood, think tight, careful, and a bit scratchy.

Derby context, tactics, and what the teams might try

Kasımpaşa’s story has been messy lately. Emre Belözoğlu only arrived in December 2025, and the club has just gone through an ownership change with Kazancı Holding taking over in early February. That “new era” talk can lift a stadium… or make legs feel even heavier when the first pass goes astray. Add the fact Kasımpaşa have been winless in eight matches across all competitions and still haven’t tasted a home league win this season, and you can see why the early minutes could be played like a chess match where nobody wants to touch the queen.

Karagümrük, meanwhile, have at least felt a small bounce: a 1-0 win over Antalyaspor on 7 February was their first league victory under Aleksandar Stanojevic, who took charge in January. He’s been trying to steady a defense that has conceded around 2.17 goals per game, but his natural instinct is still to control the ball. In the reverse fixture earlier this season, Karagümrük had 72% possession and still lost 1-0—proof that possession is great, but it doesn’t count as a shot on target (sadly for coaches everywhere).

Team news that could shape the game

• Kasımpaşa absences include muscle issues for Erdem Çetinkaya and Cláudio Winck, while Ali Ablak and Salem M’Bakata remain out long-term. Haris Hajradinović has been missing with a knee injury but is nearing a return, and İrfan Can Kahveci is still a major doubt.
• Karagümrük concerns include Tiago Çukur and Daniel Johnson battling illness and fitness, João Camacho out with a thigh injury, and Muhammed Kadıoğlu unavailable. New faces Bartuğ Elmaz and Davide Biraschi have been integrated to add stability.

Historically, this rivalry rarely gives easy answers. The head to head record across the last 10 meetings is perfectly balanced (3 wins each, 4 draws), and the most recent H2H on 2024.12-16 ended 1-1. That pattern fits two teams who know each other well enough to cancel out the obvious plans.

AI betting tips, odds, and scoreline call

The market leans toward Kasımpaşa at home, with odds around 1.95 for a home win, 3.45 for the draw, and 4.1 for an away win—helped by the gap in squad value (€29.95m vs €15.68m). Still, both sides have shown they can spoil the script: Kasımpaşa drew 1-1 with Fenerbahçe on 2025-09-21 despite long odds against them, and Karagümrük grabbed a wild 2-2 at Alanyaspor on 2026-01-13 when priced at 6.4 for the win.

Our main betting tips angle is goals. The AI’s best tip is under 3.45 goals at 1.29 odds, with 6.2/10 confidence. That lines up with the match model: possession is forecast at 54% for Kasımpaşa and 46% for Karagümrük, but shots are modest (11 vs 9) and on-target efforts even smaller (2 vs 3). Corners are projected at 5-3, and only two yellow cards in total—signs of a game that could be tense without turning into chaos.

For the 1X2, the AI leans to X (draw) at 3.45 odds, though with a low trust level of 2.0. The predicted final score is 0:0, with the anticipated half-time score also 0:0. It’s not the kind of scoreline you frame on the wall, but in a relegation derby it can feel like both teams are holding a fragile vase and nobody wants to be the one who trips.