Kisvarda vs Paks Prediction

Kisvarda vs Paks prediction: goals, form and value in NB I

The Kisvarda vs Paks prediction for Saturday, 28 February 2026 (13:30 GMT) comes with a familiar feeling: Kisvárda trying to steady the ship, and Paks arriving with their usual “we’ll score one more than you” mindset. They meet at Várkerti Stadion (2,850 seats), where the table context adds spice—Paks sit 4th on 36 points, Kisvárda 7th on 32.

Match context: styles that naturally create chances

Kisvárda Master Good, under Attila Révész (back on the bench since October 2025), have leaned into structure first. Recent form has been mixed (L-D-W-L-D), but the plan is clear: stay compact and break quickly, especially down the wings. Paks, coached by György Bognár, remain one of the league’s most entertaining sides—sometimes for their fans, sometimes for neutral spectators who enjoy a bit of chaos.

• Kisvárda tactical note: expected 4-2-3-1, with counters and wide transitions. Bence Bíró (6 league goals) is the key finisher, while Marko Matanović has been important for chance creation.
• Paks tactical note: usually aggressive 3-5-2 or 4-4-2 diamond. After the wild 3-4 loss to Győri ETO on Feb 22, expect the same attacking intent, but with a louder message about tracking runners.
• Identity factor: Paks continue as the top-flight’s all-Hungarian squad, and they play like a team that knows its patterns by heart.

Team news, motivation and head to head storylines

Squad depth matters late in the season, and both teams have issues. Kisvárda are without István Soltész (foot inflammation), and Bernardo Matić’s deal ended in January as his long recovery dragged on. Defender Martin Chlumecky is also one yellow card from suspension—something to watch if Paks start running at him early.

Paks have longer-term absences too: Gábor Vas (shoulder), Bence Lenzsér (knee), and Zsolt Haraszti (ankle ligament). Add a busy year with Conference League involvement, and you can see why “European fatigue” comes up in conversations around their squad management.

• Head to head trend: Paks have dominated recent meetings, winning the last five competitive games.
• Recent warning sign: on 2025-08-03, Kisvárda lost 1-5 to Paks, and Kisvárda have conceded 10 goals in their last two home league games vs Paks.
• Upset capability: Kisvárda held Ferencváros 0-0 away in 2024 at huge odds, and Paks drew 1-1 at Ferencváros in 2025—so neither side is shy about surprising people.

AI picks, odds and best betting tips for this game

Bookmakers lean slightly to the visitors: Home win 2.95, Draw 3.7, Away win 2.35. That pricing fits the head to head dominance and Paks’ attacking output, but it also respects Kisvárda’s improved organization at home.

NerdyTips predictions and how the stats support them

The top betting tips angle is goals. NerdyTips’ best tip is Over 2.5 goals at 1.62 (trust 6.5/10). The 1X2 lean is X2 at 1.45 (confidence 2.0), suggesting Paks avoid defeat more often than not.

• Expected score: 2-2, with a 1-1 half-time projection—very on brand for Paks matches.
• Game flow: possession is close (49% vs 51%), pointing to trading phases rather than one-way traffic.
• Chance volume: Kisvárda 10 shots (3 on target) vs Paks 15 shots (6 on target), which supports Over 2.5 more than a low-scoring grind.
• Set pieces: corners lean Paks (3 vs 6, total 9), another small boost for goal expectancy.
• Discipline: 2 yellows each suggests competitiveness without the match constantly stopping.

In short, our Kisvarda vs Paks prediction leans toward an open contest: Paks’ forward commitment should generate chances, while Kisvárda’s counters can punish the space. If you want a clean, practical angle, Over 2.5 looks like the smartest play—because when Paks are involved, defending often becomes an optional hobby.