Las Palmas vs Burgos CF Prediction

Las Palmas vs Burgos CF prediction: points, pressure, and a 1-0 feel

The Las Palmas vs Burgos CF prediction for Saturday, 2026-02-07 (kickoff 15:15 GMT) comes with that familiar Segunda feeling: tight margins, louder nerves, and one moment that decides everything. They meet at the Estadio de Gran Canaria (about 32,400 seats), with Las Palmas 4th on 39 points and Burgos 7th on 38—so yes, it’s basically a one-point argument in football form.

Match context: promotion talk and a stadium that expects more

Las Palmas have been a bit of a “now you see it, now you don’t” team since the calendar turned. A 1-1 draw away to Real Sociedad B on Jan 30 stopped the bleeding, but it came after losses to Córdoba (1-2) and Racing Santander (1-4). Back at home, the message is simple: they need to look like the late-2025 version again—calm on the ball, but sharper where it matters.

Burgos arrive in a better mood. They beat Leganés 2-1 on Jan 31 thanks to a 90th-minute winner from Mario González, and they’ve taken three wins from their last four league games. In a league where every match feels like carrying groceries in the rain, that kind of resilience matters.

Style notes: possession vs patience (and the counters in between)

Las Palmas under Luis García usually lean into ball retention, often in a 4-2-3-1 or 4-4-2 shape, trying to stretch teams wide and play through runners like Marvin Park and Manuel Fuster. García has been clear in recent comments: it’s not enough to “deserve” points—they need to be more decisive in both boxes.

Burgos, coached by Luis Miguel Ramis, are typically compact in a 4-4-2. They’re gritty, comfortable without the ball, and happy to wait for the moment to bite on the counter. Ramis has also pointed to January additions as key for keeping intensity during the long second half of the season—because Segunda doesn’t forgive tired legs.

Team news: absences could shape the script

Both sides are carrying enough missing names to make the pre-match sheet interesting.

Las Palmas: injuries, bans, and fresh attacking help

• Injuries/doubts: Sandro Ramírez (knee) and Viti Rozada (thigh) are major doubts.
• Out long-term: Jeremia Recoba (cruciate ligament).
• Unavailable: Stefan Bajčetić remains sidelined.
• Suspensions: Sergio Barcia (red card) and Mika Mármol (yellow accumulation).
• January boost: Taisei Miyashiro and Iker Bravo (both loans) expected in the squad to add options up front.

Burgos: defensive issues, but reinforcements ready

• Suspensions: Captain/center-back Aitor Córdoba (fifth yellow) is out; Florian Miguel (left-back) is also reportedly banned.
• Injuries: Kévin Appin (ligament) and Mateo Mejía (discomfort) likely miss out.
• January additions: Oier Luengo (loan from Oviedo) and Pablo Galdames (free agent) available and already involved.

Head to head: the “bogey” vibes are real

If Las Palmas fans have a football superstition, it might just be called Burgos. The head to head trend is rough: in the last five meetings, Las Palmas haven’t won (3 draws, 2 losses) and—here’s the painful part—haven’t scored in that run. The last recorded H2H on 2022-02-13 ended Las Palmas 0-2 Burgos, with Burgos priced at 6.0 and still leaving the island with all three points.

And yet, Las Palmas have shown they can write weird stories when they feel like it—like that surprising 1-0 win over Atlético Madrid on 2025-04-19 at odds of 5.5. So yes, history matters, but it doesn’t always get the final word.

Betting odds: Las Palmas favored, but not by a mile

The market leans home, which makes sense given the table position, squad value, and home record. Still, Burgos’ away grit keeps the prices honest.

• Home win: 1.9
• Draw: 3.35
• Away win: 4.65

There’s also a clear financial gap: Las Palmas’ squad is valued around €49.40m versus Burgos at €20.20m. Money doesn’t score goals, but it often buys you more ways to solve problems—especially when injuries hit.

Las Palmas vs Burgos CF prediction: NerdyTips AI picks

Now to the numbers that matter for bettors. Our Las Palmas vs Burgos CF prediction model expects Las Palmas to control more of the ball and grind this into a low-scoring home win—exactly the kind of match where one clean chance feels like a treasure.

Best value bet: Las Palmas to score (HS)

• Tip: HS (Home team will score)
• Odds: 1.28
• Trust score: 7.8/10

This connects nicely with the possession forecast (60% home) and shot profile (12 total shots, 4 on target for Las Palmas). Even if Burgos stay stubborn, the model still expects Las Palmas to find at least one goal—possibly through sustained pressure rather than a pretty move.

1X2 pick: home win

• Prediction: 1
• Odds: 1.90
• Trust score: 7.3/10

This is the “back the home side, but don’t expect fireworks” angle. Burgos’ suspensions at the back also nudge the scale toward Las Palmas, even with that ugly head to head record hanging around in the background like a rainy cloud.

Total goals lean: under 2.5 (low confidence)

• Prediction: Under 2.5 total goals
• Odds: 1.52
• Trust score: 1.7/10

Important note: the model’s trust here is very low. Yes, the predicted score is tight, but the confidence number says “handle with care.” If you’re playing totals, consider smaller stakes—or avoid entirely—because one early goal can flip the match script fast.

Expected match stats (model forecast)

• Predicted final score: Las Palmas 1-0 Burgos
• Half-time score: 1-0
• Possession: Las Palmas 60% / Burgos 40%
• Shots: Las Palmas 12 / Burgos 9
• Shots on target: Las Palmas 4 / Burgos 2
• Corners: Las Palmas 3 / Burgos 3 (total 6)
• Yellow cards: Las Palmas 1 / Burgos 2

The corners and card numbers hint at a match that’s competitive without turning into chaos. In other words: plenty of duels, but not necessarily a referee performance that steals the headlines.

Final word: what to bet and why

If you want the safest angle from our data, HS (Las Palmas to score) is the cleanest fit with the predicted control and shot volume. The 1X2 home win is the bolder step that assumes Las Palmas finally break their Burgos curse—without needing to score twice. For totals, the model whispers “under,” but with such a low trust score, it’s more a lean than a headline.

Overall, this Las Palmas vs Burgos CF prediction reads like a classic Segunda afternoon: one-point gap, tense stands, and a match that might be decided by the one time Burgos switch off—or the one time Las Palmas actually take their chance.