Match Prediction
Match Prediction
Costa-Rica
LD Alajuelense
€7.40m
Deportivo
€6.14m
Preview
The air at Estadio Alejandro Morera Soto will crackle with tension on April 22, 2025, as LD Alajuelense and Deportivo Saprissa renew one of Central America's fiercest rivalries. This isn't just a game—it's a battle woven into the fabric of Costa Rican football, where pride outweighs points and history hangs on every tackle. The numbers suggest a cagey affair, but derbies have a habit of defying logic.
Alajuelense stride into this match as favorites, with bookmakers pricing a home win at 1.87. There's good reason for this confidence: Primera Division trends show home teams win 46.5% of matches, while away sides scrape just 26.1% victories. Add Alajuelense's slightly superior squad value (€7.40m vs Saprissa's €6.14m), and the odds start to make sense. Their stadium transforms into a fortress on nights like these—a place where opponents' game plans go to die.
NerdyTips' AI projects a 1-0 finish, with under 2.5 goals carrying tempting 1.58 odds. This aligns perfectly with recent history—their last meeting ended 1-1, and league-wide data reveals both teams score in only 54.3% of matches. These are two sides that prioritize defensive structure over flamboyant attacks when the stakes are highest. Expect a chess match where one moment of quality—or madness—decides everything.
At 4.20 odds, Saprissa's potential payout is juicy enough to make bettors pause. Their shock 3-2 win over Philadelphia Union as 6.6 underdogs last year proves they can rise to the occasion. But here's the rub: replicating that magic away to their arch-rivals is a different beast entirely. The numbers suggest their best hope might be grinding out a draw (priced at 3.20), something they managed in September 2024's 1-1 stalemate.
Watch for Saprissa to sit deep and exploit Alajuelense's high defensive line with rapid counters—a strategy that could either produce a smash-and-grab victory or leave them pinned in their own half. Alajuelense, meanwhile, will dominate possession but must avoid frustration against what will likely be a packed defense. Set pieces could prove decisive in such a tight matchup.
While Saprissa's underdog story tempts, the data points firmly toward Alajuelense. NerdyTips' 4.6/10 confidence in a home win (1x2 market tip: 1) reflects both the historical edge and current form. For those seeking value, the under 2.5 goals market at 1.58 feels like the safer play in what should be a tense, tactical battle. One goal might decide this chapter of Costa Rica's greatest football rivalry—just don't expect either side to blink easily.
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1 -115
LD Alajuelense is expected to win with odds of -1151 -115
LD Alajuelense is expected to win with odds of -115Under 2.5 -172
No more than 2 goals will be scored in the matchNo -139
At least one team is not expected to score1X&U4.5 -286
Home win/draw and under 4.5 goals
1:0
|
|
17
-
20
-
24
|
|
 Deportivo |
31-Aug-25
0:1
| Alajuelen  |
| Alajuelen |
22-May-25
1:0
| Deportivo |
| Deportivo |
18-May-25
3:3
| Alajuelen |
| Alajuelen |
22-Apr-25
1:1
| Deportivo |
| Deportivo |
09-Feb-25
1:1
| Alajuelen |
| Deportivo |
03-Nov-24
3:0
| Alajuelen |
| Alajuelen |
01-Sep-24
1:1
| Deportivo |
| Deportivo |
18-Jul-24
1:3
| Alajuelen |
| Deportivo |
26-May-24
3:0
| Alajuelen |
| Alajuelen |
23-May-24
1:0
| Deportivo |
Recent Matches of Alajuelen| 14 Dec |
Alajuelense.
|
-
| Liberia.
|
Recent Matches of Deportivo
| 14 Dec | Saprissa. |
- |
Cartagines. | |
| 12 Dec | W | Cartagines. |
1:2 |
Saprissa. |
Costa-Rica - Primera División| Team | Matches | Goals | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
CS Herediano | 22 | 38-18 | 46 |
| 2 |
LD Alajuelense | 22 | 28-12 | 42 |
| 3 |
Puntarenas FC | 22 | 29-18 | 41 |
| 4 |
Deportivo Sapr | 22 | 30-18 | 39 |
| 5 |
CS Cartagines | 22 | 29-16 | 38 |
| 6 |
Sporting San J | 22 | 25-28 | 31 |
| 7 |
Municipal Libe | 22 | 26-26 | 24 |
| 8 |
Santos DE Guap | 22 | 26-33 | 24 |
| 9 |
Perez Zeledon | 22 | 16-28 | 23 |
| 10 |
San Carlos | 22 | 16-23 | 19 |
| 11 |
AD Guanacastec | 22 | 12-33 | 16 |
| 12 |
Santa Ana | 22 | 22-44 | 14 |
