Lok. Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia Prediction

Lok. Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia prediction for Sunday’s derby

The Lok. Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia prediction sits right in the middle of a tense Sofia derby at Lokomotiv Stadium, kicking off at 10:00 GMT on 2026-02-22. Round 22 matters in different ways: Lokomotiv Sofia want a top-half finish before the league split, while Septemvri Sofia are playing with survival alarms ringing loud, especially with the First League shrinking from 16 to 14 teams next season.

Context, form, and why this derby feels heavy

Lokomotiv Sofia start the day in 8th on 27 points, a position that looks comfortable until you remember their recent home wobble. They drew 2–2 away at Spartak Varna on February 13, but earlier in the month they were beaten 1–3 at home by Ludogorets. The bigger issue is the trend: three losses in their last six league matches at their own ground. For a team with top-eight ambition, that is like bringing an umbrella indoors and still getting wet.

Septemvri Sofia, meanwhile, are 16th with 15 points and need points like a goalkeeper needs gloves. The mood improved after a crucial 1–0 win over Montana on February 16, which helped stop a rough run that included a 0–7 loss to Levski Sofia and a 0–3 defeat to Dobrudzha. They are also four points from safety, and with automatic relegation threatening the bottom three, every draw now feels like a mini victory.

Tactical notes, staff changes, and key players

On the benches, the contrast is clear. Lokomotiv keep stability with Stanislav Genchev, supported by Zhivko Milanov. Genchev tends to set Lokomotiv up in a balanced way, often leaning on the leadership and end product of Spas Delev. For Septemvri, the big story is the coaching change: Hristo Arangelov returned on February 12 for his fourth spell, a familiar firefighter known for getting young players organized quickly.

• Lokomotiv Sofia attacking hinge: Spas Delev leads the team with 6 goals and 7 assists, and much of Lokomotiv’s best work flows through his movement and final pass.
• Septemvri Sofia main threat: Bertrand Fourrier has 10 league goals and will be the player Lokomotiv cannot allow to run in behind.
• Creative outlet: Galin Ivanov remains Septemvri’s key passer between the lines.
• Team news: Lokomotiv winger Mitko Mitkov is still out injured, while defenders Reyan Daskalov, Angel Lyaskov, and Sadio Dembélé are one yellow away from suspension.
• Discipline watch: Fourrier and Ivanov are also one card away from a ban, which may influence Septemvri’s pressing and tackling choices.

There is also the Jordon Ibe situation at Lokomotiv: he is registered with the club, but off-field issues and an upcoming UK court date add uncertainty around his availability and focus. In derby weeks, even “small distractions” have a habit of becoming big headlines.

Head to head and recent surprises

The head to head has been tight, and recent meetings have not always followed the script. In the most recent H2H on 2024-12-08, Lokomotiv scored once but Septemvri scored twice. Both teams have also shown they can land a punch as underdogs: Lokomotiv won 0–1 away at Cherno More on 2025-11-22 at huge betting odds of 5.1, while Septemvri beat Arda Kardzhali 0–1 away on 2025-10-20 priced at 6.88. This is why sports betting markets rarely feel “safe” in Sofia.

Lok. Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia prediction: picks and betting odds

Now to the numbers that shape this Lok. Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia prediction. The current 1x2 betting odds show Lokomotiv as clear favorites: Home win 1.62, Draw 4.1, Away win 6.4. That pricing matches the squad value gap too: Lokomotiv (€8.98m) vs Septemvri (€5.24m), plus Lokomotiv’s stronger league position.

Best tip (NerdyTips) and what supports it

NerdyTips’ best tip is 1 (home win) with a trust rating of 6.7/10 at odds of 1.62. The AI’s best 1x2 bet also points to Lokomotiv Sofia to win, trust 6.8, odds 1.62. In plain words: the model expects Lokomotiv to control the match more often than not, even if their recent home form is not perfect.

• Possession forecast: Lokomotiv 56% vs Septemvri 44% suggests the hosts should dictate tempo.
• Shots forecast: 9–6 overall, and 4–2 on target, leans toward a home win without needing a goal fest.
• Corners: 7–3 (10 total) hints at sustained Lokomotiv pressure and more time spent in Septemvri’s half.
• Cards: 2–2 yellows points to a competitive but not chaotic derby.

Goals angle and correct score lean

For totals, our AI predicts over 1.62 goals with a lower trust of 3.9 at odds of 1.35. That lower trust is a warning: Septemvri may arrive in a more cautious shape under Arangelov, and relegation teams often prefer a locked door to an open game. Still, the projected scoreline is 2:0, with a half-time prediction of 1:0, which fits the idea of Lokomotiv building pressure and eventually turning control into goals.

Recommended sports betting approach

1. Main pick: Lokomotiv Sofia to win (1) at 1.62, supported by market odds, projected control, and shot/corner edges.
2. Secondary lean: Over 1.62 goals at 1.35 if you want safer coverage, but treat it as a lower-confidence add-on.
3. Correct score note: 2:0 fits the data, but derby history says do not bet your rent on perfection.