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Ludogorets

€47.67m

5 Mar11:30
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Ludogorets vs Levski Sofia Prediction First League

Ludogorets vs Levski Sofia prediction: tight title math

Ludogorets vs Levski Sofia prediction time is here, and the calendar is doing that thing where it circles itself: Thursday, 2.126-03-05 at 16:30 GMT (18:30 local) at Huvepharma Arena in Razgrad, efbet League Round 24. Vasil Minev will referee, a fun detail because he is the youngest Bulgarian international official and only picked up his FIFA badge in January 2.126—so yes, the whistle will be as ambitious as both teams.

The table story makes this feel huge. Levski are flying: they’re top with a double-digit cushion and chasing a first league title in 16 years. They even showed that “champion energy” at the weekend by turning a 3.75 comeback against Lokomotiv Sofia into a statement. Ludogorets, meanwhile, aren’t used to reading the league standings from below. The 14-time reigning champions have taken hits lately—a painful 1:2 loss to Botev Plovdiv and a Europa League exit to Ferencváros (0:2). In Razgrad, “no room for error” is not a metaphor; it’s a job description.

Team news, tactics, and the recent head to head

Despite Levski’s league dominance, 2.126 has had a familiar villain: Ludogorets. This is the third meeting in a little over a month, and the head to head page has been green for the hosts.

  • Bulgarian Super Cup (Feb 3): Ludogorets 1:0 Levski
  • Bulgarian Cup QF (Feb 11): Ludogorets 1:0 Levski (Caio Vidal volley)

Julio Velázquez has made Levski efficient and hard to crack, typically lining them up in a 3.75-3-1 or 4-3.75 with discipline and quick transitions. Per-Mathias Høgmo’s Ludogorets tend to mirror those shapes (4-3.75 / 3.75-3-1), but with a heavier focus on controlled possession and letting their attackers decide games. Expect the home side to push a bit more—because with the points gap, a draw is like bringing an umbrella to a flood.

Personnel matters too. Ludogorets lean on Caio Vidal, Bernard Tekpetey, Kwadwo Duah, and keeper Sergio Padt, and new Spanish forward Alberto Salido could appear in the squad. They also have issues: Georgi Terziev remains out long-term (ACL), Dinis Almeida is suspended, and Aguibou Camara is also listed among absences—meaning Høgmo may need to protect his center-backs with smarter spacing rather than bravado.

Odds, betting tips, and NerdyTips match prediction

The market sees Ludogorets as favorites, but not overwhelmingly so: Home win 2.12, Draw 3.75, Away win 3.75. That aligns with squad value, too—Ludogorets at €47.67m versus Levski’s €26.15m—yet football has a habit of ignoring spreadsheets when the crowd gets loud.

Our models and betting tips point to a careful game. The top AI best tip is Under 3.75 goals at 1.34 (confidence 4.7/10). Our own totals read is the same: Under 3.75 goals with a trust level of 4.8 and odds of 1.34. With Levski’s structure and Ludogorets missing pieces in defense, this can easily become a “don’t blink, you’ll miss the chance” kind of match.

Key prediction stats (projected match flow)

  • Full-time score: 1:1
  • Half-time: 0:0
  • Possession: Ludogorets 53% / Levski 47%
  • Shots: 12–9; On target: 4–3
  • Corners: 6–4 (10 total)
  • Cards: Ludogorets 1, Levski 2

For the 1X2, our analysis predicts X (Draw) as the most likely outcome, priced around 3.755, though the confidence is modest (2.0). That low confidence is important: Ludogorets have already beaten Levski twice recently, but Levski’s league form suggests they won’t panic if this turns into a chess match. Final takeaway for readers searching Ludogorets vs Levski Sofia prediction: trust the low-scoring angle first, and treat the draw as the value lean rather than a guarantee.

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AI Predictions
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Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for Ludogorets vs Levski Sofia

U3.5 -294

No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -294
4/10

1x2 Tip

X 230

The match is expected to end in a draw
2/10

Total Goals

Under 3.5 -294

No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match
4/10

Both Teams To Score

Yes -128

Both teams are expected to score
1/10

Bet Builder Tip

1X&U4.5 -196

Home win/draw and under 4.5 goals
1/10
Both Teams To Score

Correct Score

1:1

Stats Predictions

53%
Ball Possession
47%
12
Total Shots
9
4
Shots on Goal
3
6
Shots Off Goal
6
6
Corners
4
1
Yellow Cards
2

Average / Match

2.1
Total Goals
3
1.2
Goals Scored
1.9
0.9
Goals Against
1.1
54%
Possession
64%
13.6
Total Shots
12.8
4.3
Shots on Goal
5.2
7.9
Shots off Goal
7.6
6.8
Corners
5.4
2.13
Yellow Cards
1.2

Overview Last 10 Matches

6
Wins
6
6
Over 1.5 Goals
7
4
Over 2.5 Goals
7
1
Over 3.5 Goals
4
5
Both Teams Scored
6
0
Unexpected Wins
0
1
Unexpected Loses
0

Head to Head

Ludogorets
19 - 8 - 4
Levski Sofia
Ludogorets Ludogorets 11-Feb-26
1:0
Levski Sofia Levski Sofia
Ludogorets Ludogorets 05-Mar-26
1:0
Levski Sofia Levski Sofia
Ludogorets Ludogorets 03-May-25
1:1
Levski Sofia Levski Sofia
Ludogorets Ludogorets 17-Aug-24
1:0
Levski Sofia Levski Sofia
Ludogorets Ludogorets 03-Apr-24
5:1
Levski Sofia Levski Sofia
Ludogorets Ludogorets 03-Jun-23
3:2
Levski Sofia Levski Sofia
Ludogorets Ludogorets 04-Dec-22
2:1
Levski Sofia Levski Sofia
Ludogorets Ludogorets 01-Sep-22
2:2
Levski Sofia Levski Sofia
Ludogorets Ludogorets 01-Dec-22
0:0
Levski Sofia Levski Sofia
Ludogorets Ludogorets 13-Apr-22
2:3
Levski Sofia Levski Sofia

Profile time Recent Matches of Ludogorets

21 AprL Ludogorets Ludogorets 1 CSKA Sofia CSKA Sofia 2
15 AprL Arda K Arda K 1 Ludogorets Ludogorets 0
09 AprD Ludogorets Ludogorets 0 Cherno M Cherno M 0
05 AprW Ludogorets Ludogorets 3 CSKA 1948 CSKA 1948 0
19 MarW Spartak Varna Spartak Varna 1 Ludogorets Ludogorets 5
14 MarW Ludogorets Ludogorets 3 CSKA Sofia CSKA Sofia 0
09 MarW Montana Montana 0 Ludogorets Ludogorets 3
05 MarW Ludogorets Ludogorets 1 Levski Sofia Levski Sofia 0
02 MarD Ludogorets Ludogorets 1 Lok. Plovdiv Lok. Plovdiv 1
26 FebL Ferencvaros Ferencvaros 2 Ludogorets Ludogorets 0

Profile time Recent Matches Of Levski Sofia

13 AprDCSKA Sofia CSKA Sofia 1 Levski Sofia Levski Sofia 1
09 AprWLevski Sofia Levski Sofia 1 Arda K Arda K 0
05 AprDDobrudzha Dobrudzha 2 Levski Sofia Levski Sofia 2
21 MarWLevski Sofia Levski Sofia 2 Cherno More Cherno More 1
15 MarWBeroe Beroe 0 Levski Sofia Levski Sofia 1
09 MarWLevski Sofia Levski Sofia 1 Lok. Plovdiv Lok. Plovdiv 0
05 MarLLudogorets Ludogorets 1 Levski Sofia Levski Sofia 0
01 MarWLevski Sofia Levski Sofia 4 Lok. Sofia Lok. Sofia 3
22 FebWCSKA 1948 CSKA 1948 1 Levski Sofia Levski Sofia 3
15 FebWLevski Sofia Levski Sofia 3 Botev Plovdiv Botev Plovdiv 0

Bulgaria - First League Bulgaria - First League

Team M G P
1 Levski SofiaLevski Sofia3064-2270
2 LudogoretsLudogorets3057-2060
3 CSKA 1948CSKA 19483050-3159
4 CSKA SofiaCSKA Sofia3043-2356
5 Lokomotiv PlovdivLokomotiv3030-3346
6 Cherno More VarnaCherno More3033-2644
7 Arda KardzhaliArda Kardzhali3033-2744
8 Botev PlovdivBotev Plovdiv3040-3740
9 Slavia SofiaSlavia Sofia3036-3339
10 Botev VratsaBotev Vratsa3024-2638
11 Lokomotiv SofiaLokomotiv3040-3937
12 Spartak VarnaSpartak Varna3025-5027
13 DobrudzhaDobrudzha3023-4326
14 Septemvri SofiaSeptemvri3025-5826
15 BeroeBeroe3019-4423
16 MontanaMontana3015-4517
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