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Lyon

€224.75m

19 Mar12:45
0 : 2

Celta Vigo

€146.90m

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Lyon vs Celta Vigo Prediction UEFA Europa League

Lyon vs Celta Vigo prediction: tight tie, tighter margins

The Lyon vs Celta Vigo prediction starts with a simple fact: this Europa League Round of 16 second leg is still wide open. Kick-off is set for 17:45 GMT on 2.276-03-19 at Groupama Stadium, and the first meeting in Spain left just enough drama to make the return feel like it could turn on one touch, one card, or one goalkeeping mistake.

Second-leg story so far: a 1-1 that changed twice

Last week at Balaídos, Celta struck first in the 25th minute when Javi Rueda finished a fast break, set up by Williot Swedberg. It looked like a classic home-leg punch, but the tie flipped in the 54th minute: striker Borja Iglesias saw red for a second yellow. Lyon took over the ball after that, kept the pressure steady, and finally got their reward late—Endrick’s long-range equaliser in the 87th minute, helped by an error from keeper Andrei Radu.

Tactical frame: Lyon’s control vs Celta’s transition plan

With the second leg in Lyon, the game shape points toward the home side trying to pin Celta back and manage the tempo. Lyon have the bigger squad value on paper (€224.75m vs €146.90m), and at home they typically look more comfortable building attacks with patience. Celta’s best moments in the first leg came when they broke quickly and directly, and that is likely their route again—especially if the crowd turns the night into a “just keep pushing” test for the hosts.

  • Key reminder from the first leg: Celta’s counter-attacks worked before the red card; Lyon’s possession game worked after it.
  • Discipline angle: the Iglesias dismissal matters—Celta can’t afford another second-half swing caused by cards.
  • Squad depth note: Lyon have been dealing with an injury crunch, with youngster Rémi Himbert suffering a serious right ankle sprain after coming on. That sort of setback can reduce bench options late on.

And both teams have shown they can spoil a giant’s evening away from home. Lyon’s 0-1 win at PSG on 2.273-03.82 landed at massive odds (6.5). Celta’s 0-2 win at Real Madrid on 2.275-12-07 was even louder (10.5). So if you’re looking for head to head-style psychology, this pair won’t be intimidated by reputation alone.

Best betting tips: AI picks, odds, and likely match stats

Now to the numbers for this Lyon vs Celta Vigo Prediction. The 1X2 odds price Lyon as favourites: Home win 2.27, Draw 3.45, Away win 3.8. Our model’s main betting tips lean toward Lyon not losing rather than promising fireworks.

AI market calls (with trust scores)

  • Best tip: 1X (Lyon win or draw) at 1.34, trust 7.7/10
  • 1X2 pick: Home win (1) at 2.27, confidence 6.1
  • Goals market: Under 3.45 goals at 1.3, trust 5.2

The predicted scoreline is 1-0, with a 0-0 half-time. That fits the forecasted match flow: Lyon 61% possession to Celta’s 39%, total shots 12-7, and shots on target expected at 3-3. In other words, Lyon may have more of the ball and more attempts, but Celta could still land similar “true chances” when they do get forward—often a sign of a tight, tactical contest rather than a goal rush.

  1. Corner lean: 6 total corners (3.8 to Lyon) supports home pressure without guaranteeing goals.
  2. Cards forecast: 2 yellows each suggests controlled intensity—important after the first-leg red card story.
  3. Practical angle: 1X protects you from a stubborn draw if Lyon’s injury issues reduce late-game edge.

Verdict: the smartest read is Lyon to edge control, Celta to threaten in bursts, and the tie to be decided by a single moment—exactly why 1X and under 3.45 sit neatly at the top of our betting preview.

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AI Predictions
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Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for Lyon vs Celta Vigo

1X -294

Lyon to win or draw with odds of -294
7/10

1x2 Tip

1 127

Lyon is expected to win with odds of 127
6/10

Total Goals

Under 3.5 -357

No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match
5/10

Both Teams To Score

No -102

At least one team is not expected to score
1/10

Bet Builder Tip

1X&U4.5 -192

Home win/draw and under 4.5 goals
5/10
Both Teams To Score

Correct Score

1:0

Stats Predictions

1.13
xG
0.96
61%
Ball Possession
39%
12
Total Shots
7
3
Shots on Goal
3
5
Shots Off Goal
2
4
Corners
2
2
Yellow Cards
2

Average / Match

1.03
Expected Goals
1.31
2.3
Total Goals
2.3
1.3
Goals Scored
1.3
1
Goals Against
1
57%
Possession
49%
11.4
Total Shots
10.8
3.8
Shots on Goal
4.4
5.2
Shots off Goal
4.2
12
Fouls
10.4
4.8
Corners
3.9
1.6
Offsides
2.3
2.1
Yellow Cards
1.9
516
Total Passes
490

Overview Last 10 Matches

4
Wins
4
7
Over 1.5 Goals
8
3
Over 2.5 Goals
5
3
Over 3.5 Goals
1
5
Both Teams Scored
7
0
Unexpected Wins
0
0
Unexpected Loses
0

Head to Head

Lyon
0 - 1 - 2
Celta Vigo
Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 12-Mar-26
1:1
Lyon Lyon
Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 29-Jul-23
1:0
Lyon Lyon

Profile time Recent Matches of Lyon

25 AprW Lyon Lyon 3 Auxerre Auxerre 2
19 AprW Paris S Paris S 1 Lyon Lyon 2
12 AprW Lyon Lyon 2 Lorient Lorient 0
05 AprD Angers Angers 0 Lyon Lyon 0
22 MarL Lyon Lyon 1 Monaco Monaco 2
19 MarL Lyon Lyon 0 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 2
15 MarD Le Havre Le Havre 0 Lyon Lyon 0
12 MarD Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 1 Lyon Lyon 1
08 MarD Lyon Lyon 1 Paris FC Paris FC 1
05 MarD Lyon Lyon 2 Lens Lens 2

Profile time Recent Matches Of Celta Vigo

26 AprLVillarreal Villarreal 2 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 1
22 AprLBarcelona Barcelona 1 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 0
16 AprLCelta Vigo Celta Vigo 1 SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 3
12 AprLCelta Vigo Celta Vigo 0 R. Oviedo R. Oviedo 3
09 AprLSC Freiburg SC Freiburg 3 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 0
05 AprWValencia Valencia 2 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 3
22 MarLCelta Vigo Celta Vigo 3 Alaves Alaves 4
19 MarWLyon Lyon 0 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 2
15 MarDBetis Betis 1 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 1
12 MarDCelta Vigo Celta Vigo 1 Lyon Lyon 1

World - UEFA Europa League World - UEFA Europa League

Team M G P
1 LyonLyon818-521
2 Aston VillaAston Villa814-621
3 FC MidtjyllandFC Midtjylland818-819
4 Real BetisReal Betis813-717
5 FC PortoFC Porto813-717
6 SC BragaSC Braga811-517
7 SC FreiburgSC Freiburg810-417
8 AS RomaAS Roma813-616
9 GenkGenk811-716
10 BolognaBologna814-715
11 VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart815-915
12 Ferencvarosi TCFerencvarosi812-1115
13 Nottingham ForestNottingham815-714
14 PlzenPlzen88-314
15 FK Crvena ZvezdaFK Crvena87-614
16 Celta VigoCelta Vigo815-1113
17 PAOKPAOK817-1412
18 LilleLille812-912
19 FenerbahçeFenerbahçe810-712
20 PanathinaikosPanathinaikos811-912
21 CelticCeltic813-1511
22 LudogoretsLudogorets812-1510
23 Dinamo ZagrebDinamo Zagreb812-1610
24 BrannBrann89-119
25 BSC Young BoysBSC Young Boys810-169
26 Sturm GrazSturm Graz85-117
27 FCSBFCSB89-167
28 GO Ahead EaglesGO Ahead86-147
29 FeyenoordFeyenoord811-156
30 FC Basel 1893FC Basel 189389-136
31 Red Bull SalzburgRed Bull810-156
32 RangersRangers85-144
33 NiceNice87-153
34 UtrechtUtrecht85-151
35 Malmo FFMalmo FF84-151
36 Maccabi Tel AvivMaccabi Tel82-221
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