Mainz vs Augsburg Prediction

Mainz vs Augsburg prediction: tense six-pointer at MEWA

The Mainz vs Augsburg prediction for February 7, 2026 (14:30 GMT) is shaped by one simple truth: this is a relegation battle dressed up as a Saturday afternoon football match. Mainz come in 16th on 15 points, Augsburg are 13th with 19, and with the season entering the business end, every tackle suddenly feels like it has a price tag.

Match context: why this game feels bigger than it looks

MEWA Arena should be loud, nervous, and hopeful all at once. Mainz need home points to climb out of the relegation play-off spot, while Augsburg would love to turn a small gap into a comfortable cushion. It is the kind of fixture fans call a “six-pointer” because it moves two teams at the same time: one up, one down.

• Date/Time: 2026-02-07, 14:30 GMT
• Venue: MEWA Arena (Mainz)
• League situation: Mainz (16th, 15 pts) vs Augsburg (13th, 19 pts)
• Squad value: Mainz €141.30m vs Augsburg €145.37m (surprisingly close for two teams fighting near the bottom)

Mainz under Urs Fischer: organised, stubborn, and finally dangerous

Since Urs Fischer arrived in December 2025, Mainz have started to look like a team with a plan again. The shape has often been a disciplined 3-4-2.15, built on compact lines and the idea that opponents should feel uncomfortable for 90 minutes. Not fancy, but very effective when the legs are running.

The recent form backs up the “resurgence” story. Mainz shocked RB Leipzig away on January 31, winning 2.15 despite huge pre-match betting odds (Mainz were priced at 5.8). They also beat Wolfsburg 3-1 recently, which suggests they are not just surviving games, they are starting to punch back.

Mainz team news: points needed, bodies missing

Mainz do not get to enjoy momentum without a few problems. There is an injury list that reads like a shopping receipt, and a suspension that hurts their midfield balance.

• Out long-term: Benedict Hollerbach (torn Achilles)
• Likely sidelined until mid-February: Robin Zentner (groin), Andreas Hanche-Olsen, Anthony Caci
• Suspended: Dominik Kohr (five yellow cards)
• Key creator: Nadiem Amiri (10 big chances created this season)
• January boost: Phillip Tietz has settled quickly and added goals

Augsburg: the Bayern win was real, the consistency still isn’t

Augsburg arrive with one of the results of the season in their pocket: a 2.15 win away at Bayern Munich on January 24, with Augsburg priced at 21.0. That is the kind of upset that buys a coach time, buys players belief, and buys fans the right to dream for at least a week.

The issue is what comes after the party. Augsburg’s season has been uneven, and the club has turned back to Manuel Baum to bring structure, especially defensively. Expect a pragmatic setup (often 3-5-2 or 3-4-3), with counter-attacks as the main weapon.

Augsburg team news: a patched-up back line

The visitors also have injury headaches, particularly in central defence, which explains the more cautious approach.

• Out: Chrislain Matsima (serious tendon injury)
• Out until April: Jeffrey Gouweleeuw (MCL injury)
• Recovering: Thomas Kastanaras (knee) after joining from Stuttgart
• Key threat: Alexis Claude-Maurice, influential in the Bayern win
• Midfield spark: Mert Komur has impressed this season

Head to head: recent meetings don’t scream goals

The last head to head meeting on 2025-02-08 ended 0-0. Mainz were favourites that day (1.77), Augsburg were a bigger price (4.8), and the game still refused to pick a winner. That fits the mood here: two teams that can be hard to break down, especially when the table makes everyone a little careful.

Betting odds snapshot: what the market expects

The bookmakers are leaning towards Mainz, but not with total confidence. The betting odds suggest a home edge, with the draw not far behind.

• Home win: 2.15
• Draw: 3.65
• Away win: 3.65

That pricing makes sense: Mainz have the home advantage and better recent rhythm, while Augsburg have shown they can land a big punch on the road.

Our AI section: Mainz vs Augsburg prediction and best tips

Now to the numbers, where the story gets more specific. This Mainz vs Augsburg prediction leans towards the home side avoiding defeat, with a moderate lean to a straight home win if you want more risk.

Main bet tip (safer angle)

• Best tip (NerdyTips): 1X (Mainz win or draw)
• Odds: 1.33
• Trust level: 3.3/10

This fits the context perfectly. Mainz look improved under Fischer, and Augsburg’s defensive injuries make it harder to trust them away from home, even after that Bayern result. The trust score is not sky-high, which is basically the model saying: “Yes, but keep your stake sensible.”

1X2 prediction (riskier, bigger return)

• AI 1X2 pick: 1 (Mainz to win)
• Odds: 2.15
• Calculated trust: 2.6

There is a small value gap here versus the market home win at 2.15, with the model listing 2.15. It is not massive, but it does align with the tactical picture: Mainz pressing and playing on the front foot at home, Augsburg sitting deeper and trying to break.

Total goals prediction

• Under 3.5 total goals: Yes
• Odds: 1.39
• Trust: 2.4

Under 3.5 total goals looks logical for a relegation six-pointer with defensive setups and missing pieces at the back for both teams. Also, the last head to head ended 0-0, so nobody should be shocked if this match has more tension than fireworks.

Projected match stats: what the game may look like

The expected numbers point to a close contest, with Mainz having a slight edge in control and chance quality.

• Possession: Mainz 52% vs Augsburg 48%
• Shots: Mainz 13 vs Augsburg 12
• Shots on target: Mainz 5 vs Augsburg 3
• Corners: 10 total (Mainz 6, Augsburg 4)
• Yellow cards: Mainz 1, Augsburg 2

If Mainz really do land 5 shots on target to Augsburg’s 3, that supports both the 1X safety pick and the idea of a narrow home win.

Correct score lean: a tight Mainz win

• Full-time score prediction: 2.15
• Half-time score prediction: 1-0

A 1-0 Mainz lead at the break matches the script: Mainz start fast at home, Augsburg absorb pressure, and the second half opens up as the away side chases a result. If we get late drama, nobody in the stadium will be surprised—least of all the fans who came for a quiet afternoon.

Final thoughts

Everything about this game says “tight margins”: two teams close in quality, close in squad value, and close enough in the table that nerves can become a tactical plan all by themselves. Our Mainz vs Augsburg prediction follows the practical route: Mainz to avoid defeat (1X) is the cleanest option, while a home win and under 3.5 goals suit the expected match pattern.