Mallorca vs Betis Prediction

Mallorca vs Betis prediction: value angles for Sunday night

The Mallorca vs Betis prediction for Sunday, February 15, 2026, comes with a familiar La Liga tension: a strong home side at Son Moix trying to punch above its weight, and a more expensive squad trying to behave like it. Kick-off is set for 20:00 GMT at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, and this Matchday 24 game lands with both teams still talking about results against Atlético Madrid and Barcelona rather than just the table.

Mallorca arrive looking more “grown-up” than in past seasons under Jagoba Arrasate. The shape usually sits in a 4-2-3-1 or a compact 4-4-2, and the plan is clear enough to translate into any language: win duels, play forward early, and make opponents defend facing their own goal. With Vedat Muriqi as the focal point, Mallorca often turn aerial battles into second-ball chances for the runners, especially Sergi Darder and Dani Rodríguez. Arrasate has also tried to reduce the old dependency on one man, and the recent performances suggest it’s working.

On the team news front, Mallorca look relatively steady. Takuma Asano is out with a muscle issue from early February, but the big lift is the return of captain Antonio Raíllo, back in full training after a shoulder dislocation and expected to start. Marash Kumbulla and Manu Morlanes have also returned to the matchday squad, which matters because Mallorca’s best home nights usually start with control and calm at the back.

Betis, meanwhile, continue to juggle absences. Sofyan Amrabat is out after ankle surgery, and Johnny Cardoso is also sidelined with a muscle injury and not expected back until late February. Isco and Juan “Cucho” Hernández are pushing for mid-February returns, but this match may be too soon for a full role, while Héctor Bellerín and Giovani Lo Celso have been monitored with minor issues. The brighter note is that Junior Firpo and Rodrigo Riquelme have rejoined the group, adding depth out wide for Manuel Pellegrini.

How the game may look: control vs counters

Pellegrini’s Betis usually keep their 4-2-3-1, with the “10” role adapted when the star creators are not fully fit. Recent reports suggest Nelson Deossa has been used there, while Pablo Fornals provides a lot of the clean passing that helps Betis play through pressure. Up front, Antony’s recent goal threat gives Betis a more direct edge; Mallorca will not want to let him receive facing goal too often.

What makes this fixture fun for analysts (and stressful for defenders) is the contrast. Betis tend to want 50%+ possession and to “defend with the ball,” while Mallorca are happy to bait pressure, then spring forward quickly. Arrasate has openly pushed his side to be brave and make opponents run backwards. If Raíllo marshals the box well, Mallorca can keep the match close long enough for one Muriqi moment to flip the script.

• Home form factor: Mallorca have been tough at Son Moix, with only two losses in their last 11 home games.
• Betis mentality: After taking a surprise 0-1 away win at Atlético on 2026-02-08 (at huge 7.0 betting odds), Betis will feel they can win anywhere.
• Head to head trend: Betis have looked like a bogey team; Mallorca have not beaten them in the last five home meetings, losing four.

Mallorca vs Betis prediction based on odds and data

The current betting odds frame a slightly stronger away side: Home win 3.05, Draw 3.25, Away win 2.55. That aligns with the squad values too—Mallorca at €85.40m versus Betis at €228.30m—though football has never asked the transfer market for permission. Mallorca’s 1:1 draw with Atlético on 2025-09-21, despite Atlético being priced around 1.75, is a good reminder that this stadium can ruin clean models.

In the most recent head to head on 2025-01-25, Betis won 0-1. Interestingly, the market then gave Mallorca shorter odds (2.4) than Betis (3.22), yet Betis still found a way—another small signal that the matchup has suited Pellegrini’s structure.

Sports betting angles: where the value sits

For our Mallorca vs Betis prediction, the AI points to goals rather than a firm winner. The most valuable bet is over 1.5 goals (at least two total), priced at 1.35 with a trust score of 4.8/10. The under/over market prediction also lands on over 1.5 goals with 4.9 confidence and the same 1.35 odds, which fits the idea of Betis creating enough chances while Mallorca remain dangerous on transitions and set pieces.

In the 1x2 market, the model leans to 2 (Betis to win) at odds of 2.55, but the confidence is only 2.3. That low confidence feels fair: Mallorca’s home resistance is real, and Betis arrive with injuries in key midfield areas. Still, Betis have shown they can “park the vanity” and do the hard defensive work when needed—especially after that statement win at Atlético.

Predicted scoreline

The projected final score is 1:2, with an expected half-time of 0:1. If that happens, expect the second half to be messy, loud, and full of long balls toward Muriqi—basically, a normal night at Son Moix, just with slightly better sports betting reasons to watch until the final whistle.