Mantova vs Sampdoria Prediction

Mantova vs Sampdoria prediction: tight tactics, tighter goals

Mark your calendars for 2026-02-21 at 14:00 GMT, because this Mantova vs Sampdoria prediction comes wrapped in survival pressure, playoff ambition, and a stadium mood that should feel a bit like a cup night. At Stadio Danilo Martelli in Mantua (15:00 local time), Mantova’s fight to escape the play-out zone meets a Samp side still searching for a clean run of results.

Mantova’s winter has been about change as much as points. In December 2025, the club moved on from Davide Possanzini and handed the keys to Francesco Modesto, a coach often associated with the Gasperini-style ideas: brave pressing, busy wing-backs, and a back three that needs to be brave in space. It is a fun plan when it clicks, but it can also look risky when confidence is low.

Sampdoria’s season has also had its plot twists. After Andrea Sottil’s exit earlier in the campaign, Angelo Gregucci has steadied the ship into mid-table. The football is more pragmatic than poetic, usually a 3-5-2 built to be hard to beat. That fits their recent trend: lots of draws, not many collapses, and not always enough punch to finish teams off.

Team news, injuries, and the likely shapes

Both coaches have reasons to keep the game plan simple, because the treatment room is busy and suspensions bite.

• Mantova absences: S. Cella is suspended; Nicholas Bonfanti and Come Bianay remain long-term outs; Nikolas Muci is doubtful (calf); Francesco Ruocco has a muscle issue.
• Sampdoria absences: Salvatore Esposito’s hamstring issue looks serious (weeks out); Lorenzo Malanca and Lorenzo Venuti are out with cruciate ligament injuries; Fabio Depaoli is also sidelined (hamstring).

Modesto is expected to lean into a 3-4-2-1 or 3-4-3, with Simone Trimboli the main source of ideas—he leads the side in big chances created. January business has aimed to patch defensive problems too: Ali Dembélé (loan from Torino) and Andrea Meroni (loan from Bari) were brought in to add bite and structure to a unit that has been caught out by poor preventive marking.

Gregucci’s Samp will likely mirror with a 3-5-2, looking to keep the middle crowded and feed Massimo Coda early. In midfield, Manuel Cicconi has been the steady engine, topping the charts for assists and key passes. Gregucci recently spoke about needing “ruthless finishing” after another draw—an honest summary of their season.

Recent form and head to head: patterns that matter

Mantova’s last five read L-L-D-L-D, and they have struggled to score, failing to net in their last two matches. Sampdoria’s D-W-D-D-D is more comforting, if slightly frustrating. Interesting context for the head to head crowd: the last meeting on 2025-01.25 ended 2-2, and the reverse fixture earlier this season (2025-11-02) saw Mantova win 1-0 at Marassi. Over the last three Serie B meetings, it’s perfectly balanced: one win each and one draw.

Betting tips and our Mantova vs Sampdoria prediction

The market expects a close game: home win 3.1, draw 3.15, away win 2.65. Those numbers respect Sampdoria’s bigger squad value (€41.05m vs €26.23m), but they also leave room for Mantova’s home urgency and expected control.

• Main betting tip: Under 3.5 goals at 1.25 (confidence 6.4/10).
• 1X2 lean: Draw (X) at 3.15 (trust level 2.0).
• Correct score call: 0:0, with a 0:0 half-time.

Why does the numbers story point to caution? Our model expects Mantova to have about 55% possession, with shot volume fairly even (14–12) and identical on-target output (4–4). That profile often produces long stretches of “almost” rather than “inevitable.” Add the projected 9 corners (5–4) and a modest card count (2–2), and you get a game that is competitive without necessarily boiling over.

So, this Mantova vs Sampdoria Prediction is not about fireworks; it’s about margins. With Mantova still finding fluency under Modesto and Sampdoria missing a key midfield piece in Esposito, the most sensible angle among our betting tips remains keeping goals on a short leash: under 3.5, with the draw a smaller-stake sprinkle for those who like their stories to end level.