Match Prediction
Match Prediction
Brazil
Marilia
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Sertaozinho
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Preview
As the sun sets over Estádio Municipal Bento de Abreu Sampaio Vidal on April 4th, fans will gather for what promises to be a tight and tactical battle between Marilia and Sertaozinho. Kickoff is set for 23:00 GMT, and while the Paulista A3 might not grab international headlines, this fixture has all the ingredients of a low-scoring chess match with a touch of drama.
Last time these two sides met back in February, Marilia edged a narrow 1-0 win, and that result wasn’t exactly out of character. This fixture tends to be more about grind than glamour. With both teams struggling to find the net consistently this season, don’t expect fireworks—unless you count the halftime popcorn stand lighting up.
Let’s talk goals—or rather, the lack thereof. The Paulista A3 is not exactly the Brazilian league you turn to for goalfests. According to our data, only 32.0% of matches have featured over 2.5 goals, and just 15.6% have gone over 3.5. That’s not exactly samba football. In fact, only 55.5% of games even manage to scrape past 1.5 goals.
So, when we tell you that the most valuable bet here is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.53, we’re not just pulling numbers out of a hat. Our AI gives this tip a confidence score of 6.7 out of 10, which is like your most reliable mate saying, “Trust me, I’ve seen this movie before.”
And there’s more—only 39.5% of matches in this league see both teams scoring. That stat alone should raise an eyebrow or two when you consider the attacking form (or lack thereof) of both sides. Both teams to score? Probably not. A dull 0-0 at halftime wouldn’t surprise anyone here, and guess what? That’s exactly what our prediction model suggests.
Now here’s where things get interesting. Despite being the away team and having slightly longer odds at 3.53, our AI model surprisingly leans toward Sertaozinho to sneak a win here. Yes, you read that right. It might sound bold considering Marilia are the hosts and historically, home teams win 40.2% of the time in this league—but Sertaozinho seem due a bit of revenge after their February loss.
Here's what we predict for Marilia vs Sertaozinho: our AI suggests an away win (Sertaozinho) with a confidence rating of 2.0 and odds of 3.53, while the best value bet remains under 2.5 goals at 1.53 with a trust score of 6.7/10.
It’s the kind of prediction that makes you pause just before placing your bet—and then go for it anyway because the numbers don’t lie. A final score of 0:1 in favor of Sertaozinho is the forecast, with a cagey, goalless first half setting the stage for a late decider. Basically, don’t blink in the 78th minute.
So, if you’re tuning in expecting a goal bonanza, maybe keep that remote handy. But if you're the type who enjoys tactical battles, gritty midfield duels, and the sweet tension of a one-goal game, this one’s for you. And for the punters out there, keep your eyes on that under 2.5 market—it’s where the real value lives.
Will Sertaozinho finally turn the tables? Or will Marilia once again do just enough to keep their visitors quiet? Either way, this isn’t just another match—it’s a slow-burning drama with three points on the line and very few goals to spare.
Read More
U2.5 -189
No more than 2 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -1892 253
Sertaozinho is expected to win with odds of 253Under 2.5 -189
No more than 2 goals will be scored in the matchNo -143
At least one team is not expected to scoreX2&U3.5 125
Away win/draw and under 3.5 goals
0:1
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5
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2
-
1
|
|
 Marilia |
04-Apr-25
1:0
| Sertaozinho  |
| Sertaozinho |
29-Mar-25
2:0
| Marilia |
| Sertaozinho |
01-Mar-25
0:0
| Marilia |
| Marilia |
24-Feb-24
1:0
| Sertaozinho |
| Sertaozinho |
01-Mar-23
1:3
| Marilia |
| Sertaozinho |
13-Aug-22
1:1
| Marilia |
| Marilia |
09-Jul-22
2:0
| Sertaozinho |
Recent Matches of Marilia
Recent Matches of Sertaozinho
| 14 Jan | W |  Piracicaba. |
3:4 |
Sertaozinho. |
| 10 Jan | D | Sertaozinho. |
0:0 |
Taubate. |
Brazil - Paulista - A3| Team | Matches | Goals | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Monte Azul | 15 | 27-14 | 30 |
| 2 |
Marília | 15 | 24-17 | 28 |
| 3 |
Desportivo Bra | 15 | 19-16 | 25 |
| 4 |
Sertãozinho | 15 | 14-8 | 25 |
| 5 |
Catanduva | 15 | 17-17 | 24 |
| 6 |
Rio Branco SP | 15 | 25-15 | 23 |
| 7 |
União São Jo | 15 | 18-13 | 22 |
| 8 |
Itapirense | 15 | 14-13 | 20 |
| 9 |
Rio Preto | 15 | 12-14 | 20 |
| 10 |
USAC | 15 | 15-22 | 17 |
| 11 |
XV de Jau | 15 | 9-12 | 17 |
| 12 |
Francana | 15 | 17-19 | 17 |
| 13 |
EC São Bernar | 15 | 11-15 | 16 |
| 14 |
Bandeirante SP | 15 | 12-20 | 15 |
| 15 |
EC Lemense | 15 | 12-21 | 13 |
| 16 |
Comercial | 15 | 8-18 | 11 |
