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Match Prediction

Matsumoto Yamaga vs Thespakusatsu Gunma Prediction

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J3 League

Matsumoto

€275.00Th.

5 Jul10:00
1 : 3

Thespakus

€325.00Th.

Preview

Matsumoto vs Thespakus Prediction J3 League

Matsumoto Yamaga vs Thespakusatsu Gunma Prediction: Betting Preview, Odds & Insights

The Matsumoto Yamaga vs Thespakusatsu Gunma prediction for July 5, 2025, at Sunpro Alwin Stadium is capturing the imagination of J3 League followers and betting enthusiasts alike. With both teams eyeing vital points, the stage is set for a tactical chess match where every move could tip the scales. As we break down the head to head, betting odds, and league trends, this preview will help you navigate the numbers and nuances before placing your wager.

Setting the Scene: Statistical Undercurrents and Squad Value

On paper, Thespakusatsu Gunma holds a slight edge in squad value—€325,000 compared to Matsumoto Yamaga’s €275,000. While not a gulf, this difference hints at marginally greater depth and quality for the visitors. However, Sunpro Alwin Stadium has seen its fair share of tense, low-scoring encounters, a trend that could continue given both teams’ recent defensive discipline.

  • Home win odds: 2.2
  • Draw odds: 3.2
  • Away win odds: 3.1

The betting odds suggest a finely balanced contest, with the draw priced attractively at 3.2, just a shade above Gunma’s away win odds. This aligns with the Matsumoto Yamaga vs Thespakusatsu Gunma prediction from NerdyTips’ AI, which leans toward a stalemate.

League Trends: The Draw Is No Coincidence

J3 League data offers a telling backdrop:

  • Home teams win 40.8% of matches
  • Away teams win 29.1%
  • Draws occur in 30.1% of fixtures

With nearly a third of matches ending level, the AI’s draw prediction (trust score 2.0/10) isn’t just a statistical afterthought—it’s a real possibility. The predicted 0:0 final and half-time scores reinforce expectations of a tight, risk-averse affair.

Goals Market: Why Under 3.5 Goals Is the Smart Play

If you’re looking for fireworks, this might not be your match. The AI’s top wager is under 3.5 total goals at odds of 1.25, albeit with a moderate confidence rating of 3.2/10. Here’s why that makes sense:

  1. Only 21.4% of J3 matches feature over 3.5 goals
  2. Most games (63.1%) see over 1.5 goals, but only 37.9% go above 2.5
  3. Both teams have scored in just 49.5% of games

The numbers point to a tactical battle with few clear chances—perfect for those seeking value in the total goals market.

Recent Form: Gunma’s Away Resilience

Thespakusatsu Gunma’s recent 1:1 draw at Blaublitz Akita—snatched with pre-match odds of 5.25 for a win—showed their ability to frustrate hosts and grind out results against the odds. This resilience, paired with their slightly higher squad value, could make them a tough nut to crack for Matsumoto Yamaga, even on home turf.

Final Verdict: Matsumoto Yamaga vs Thespakusatsu Gunma Prediction & Betting Tips

Taking into account the head to head stats, squad values, and league-wide trends, the Matsumoto Yamaga vs Thespakusatsu Gunma prediction is for a low-scoring, evenly matched contest. The smart money is on:

  • Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.25): Supported by league data and both teams’ defensive tendencies.
  • Draw (X) in the 1x2 market (odds 3.2): Backed by a significant 30.1% draw rate in J3 and AI analysis.

In a fixture where margins are slim and defences are likely to dominate, patience could be your most valuable asset—both on the pitch and at the betting window.

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AI Predictions
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Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for Matsumoto vs Thespakus

U3.5 -400

No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -400
3/10

1x2 Tip

X 220

The match is expected to end in a draw
2/10

Total Goals

Under 3.5 -400

No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match
3/10

Both Teams To Score

No -110

At least one team is not expected to score
1/10

Bet Builder Tip

1X&U4.5 -227

Home win/draw and under 4.5 goals
1/10
Both Teams To Score

Correct Score

0:0

Average / Match

2.9
Total Goals
2.7
1.3
Goals Scored
1.2
1.6
Goals Against
1.5

Overview Last 10 Matches

3
Wins
3
8
Over 1.5 Goals
6
6
Over 2.5 Goals
4
3
Over 3.5 Goals
4
6
Both Teams Scored
4
0
Unexpected Wins
0
0
Unexpected Loses
0

Head to Head

Matsumoto Yamaga
8 - 3 - 4
Thespakusatsu Gunma
Thespakusatsu Gunma Thespakus 30-Oct-21
1:0
Matsumoto Matsumoto Yamaga
Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto 25-Apr-21
1:0
Thespakus Thespakusatsu Gunma
Thespakusatsu Gunma Thespakus 02-Dec-20
1:0
Matsumoto Matsumoto Yamaga
Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto 19-Jul-20
2:0
Thespakus Thespakusatsu Gunma
Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto 16-Sep-17
3:0
Thespakus Thespakusatsu Gunma
Thespakusatsu Gunma Thespakus 18-Jun-17
0:2
Matsumoto Matsumoto Yamaga
Thespakusatsu Gunma Thespakus 18-Sep-16
1:1
Matsumoto Matsumoto Yamaga
Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto 23-Apr-16
2:1
Thespakus Thespakusatsu Gunma
Thespakusatsu Gunma Thespakus 31-Aug-14
1:3
Matsumoto Matsumoto Yamaga

Japan - J3 League Japan - J3 League

Team Matches Goals Points
1 Tochigi City Tochigi City38
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2 Vanraure Hachinohe Vanraure Hachi38
46-23
72
3 Osaka Osaka38
55-33
71
4 Tegevajaro Miyazaki Tegevajaro Miy38
61-45
67
5 Kagoshima United Kagoshima Unit38
69-44
66
6 Kanazawa Kanazawa38
53-45
59
7 Tochigi SC Tochigi SC38
42-36
58
8 Kitakyushu Kitakyushu38
46-41
56
9 Nara Club Nara Club38
50-46
56
10 Fukushima United Fukushima Unit38
60-67
56
11 Gainare Tottori Gainare Tottor38
44-49
51
12 Sagamihara Sagamihara38
38-50
50
13 FC Gifu FC Gifu38
52-60
47
14 Thespakusatsu Gunma Thespakusatsu 38
56-59
46
15 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yama38
41-50
43
16 FC Ryukyu FC Ryukyu38
41-57
40
17 Kamatamare Sanuki Kamatamare San38
41-57
38
18 Kochi United Kochi United38
40-60
38
19 Parceiro Nagano Parceiro Nagan38
29-57
35
20 Azul Claro Numazu Azul Claro Num38
40-57
28
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