Metz vs Auxerre Prediction

Metz vs Auxerre prediction: tense six-pointer with few goals

Metz vs Auxerre prediction time, and it comes with the kind of pressure you can almost hear from the stands. This Ligue 1 relegation six-pointer is set for Sunday, 15 February 2026 at Stade Saint-Symphorien, with kick-off at 16:15 GMT (17:15 local). Both sides are stuck in the bottom three, so the stakes are simple: win, breathe; lose, sink deeper.

Match context, tactics, and team news

Metz arrive in 18th on 13 points, but they finally stopped the bleeding with a gritty 0-0 draw against Lille on 6 February. Considering Lille were priced around 1.57 to win, that result felt like a loud “we’re not done yet.” New coach Benoît Tavenot, appointed on 20 January, called it a turning point, and you can see why: the team looked more compact and committed, even if goals are still hard to find.

Auxerre are 17th on 14 points and carrying a very different kind of problem: a serious goal drought. They have not scored in their last five league matches, and even their surprising 0-0 away draw at Toulouse on 1 February (at huge odds of 5.4) screamed “survival mode.” Christophe Pélissier has tried to plug leaks with a 5-4-1, but the fanbase wants more ambition—and quickly.

What to watch on the pitch

• Metz structure: Tavenot has leaned toward a tougher, defensive 4-3-3, with veteran Benjamin Stambouli brought back to add control in midfield.
• Auxerre approach: Pélissier’s 5-4-1 can keep games tight, but it leaves their forwards isolated—especially painful during a scoring drought.
• The Hein storyline: Gauthier Hein (6 league goals) is Metz’s main spark and a former Auxerre man. He already hurt them in the first leg with a free-kick, even though Metz lost 3-1.

Players missing (and why it matters)

• Metz absences: Joseph Mangondo (knee) and Pape Sy (concussion) remain out; Alpha Touré is a major doubt (illness); Jean-Philippe Gbamin is suspended after a red card.
• Auxerre absences: Danny Namaso is suspended, a big blow to an attack already running on empty; Francisco Sierralta is a doubt but close to returning.
• New face: Romain Faivre (loan from Bournemouth) is expected to start as Auxerre look for any switch to flip their 450+ minute goal drought.

For head to head notes, Auxerre won the reverse fixture 3-1 on 7 December 2025, and they’ve also won their last three visits to Metz with no draws. Still, with both teams desperate, history does not always pay the bills.

Our betting tips and AI picks for Metz vs Auxerre

The 1X2 odds are tight: Metz win 3.0, draw 3.0, Auxerre win 2.85. That pricing fits the table: two struggling sides, one-point gap, and little margin for error.

Best bet: under 3.5 goals

Our top betting tips lean to a low-scoring match. The AI recommends Under 3.5 goals at 1.26 with a 5.9/10 trust rating (also shown as 6.0 in the totals model). With both teams coming off 0-0 draws and Auxerre unable to score for weeks, “maximum three goals” feels more like the default than the gamble.

1X2 angle: X2 (Auxerre or draw)

The model’s 1X2 market pick is X2 at 1.47 (confidence 2.0). The reasoning is practical: Auxerre’s squad value (€69.85m) is higher than Metz’s (€46.00m), and recent head to head trends in Metz lean Auxerre. Even with their scoring issues, Auxerre have shown they can grind out results away from home.

Projected match stats and scoreline

• Final score prediction: 0-1
• Half-time score: 0-0
• Possession: Metz 56% vs Auxerre 44%
• Shots: Metz 11 vs Auxerre 14 (on target: 3 vs 4)
• Corners: 4 vs 7 (11 total)
• Cards: 1 yellow each

In short, this Metz vs Auxerre prediction points to a careful, nervy game where one moment decides it. If you want the safer route, under 3.5 goals is the cleanest fit for the data, the form, and the mood around both camps.