Match Prediction
Match Prediction
England
Millwall
€39.72m
Middlesbrough
€113.25m
Preview
The Championship is heating up as Millwall and Middlesbrough prepare to face off at The Den on April 12, 2025. With both teams jostling for playoff positions, this match promises tension, tactical battles, and—if the stats are anything to go by—a tight, low-scoring affair. Let’s break down why the numbers point to a cagey contest and where the betting value lies.
Millwall, sitting 9th with 57 points, are just three points behind 6th-placed Middlesbrough (60 points). A win for either side could be pivotal in their push for promotion. The stakes are high, and that often translates to cautious football—especially when the margins are this slim.
The odds reflect the fine balance: Middlesbrough are slight favorites at 2.380 for an away win, while Millwall sit at 3.10. The draw, priced at 3.2, is also in play. But the real story here isn’t just who might win—it’s how the game will unfold.
NerdyTips’ AI has flagged under 3.5 goals as a near-certain bet (1.26 odds, 10/10 confidence), and the stats back it up emphatically. Championship matches see over 3.5 goals just 24.6% of the time, and this fixture has all the hallmarks of a defensive grind.
Middlesbrough’s expected possession (55%) and higher shot count (13 total, 3 on target) suggest they’ll control the game, but Millwall’s compact style at The Den—where they concede fewer chances—could neutralize that advantage. The projected final score of 0-1 (HT: 0-0) hints at a single decisive moment rather than a goal fest.
Looking back, Middlesbrough won the last meeting 3.1 in January 2024, but this time feels different. Millwall’s recent 1-0 away win over Sheffield Wednesday (a shock at 5.90 odds) shows they can dig deep, while Boro’s 3-0 thrashing of Leeds (5.20 odds) proves their attacking threat. Yet, both results had one thing in common: they stayed under 3.5 goals.
Home wins in the Championship happen 42.8% of the time, but Millwall’s mid-table position and Middlesbrough’s superior squad value (€113m vs. Millwall’s €39m) tilt the scales slightly toward the visitors. Still, the Den is a fortress, and Millwall won’t make it easy.
Corners and cards could also play a role. Millwall are expected to edge Middlesbrough in corners (4 vs. 3), while both teams are projected to pick up just one yellow card each. This reinforces the idea of a disciplined, low-event game.
Critically, both teams score in only 49.8% of Championship matches, and with Middlesbrough’s defense looking sturdy, a clean sheet isn’t out of the question. The AI’s 0-1 prediction aligns with Boro’s ability to grind out narrow wins on the road.
For punters, the smart money is on under 3.5 goals. The odds are short (1.26), but the confidence level is sky-high. If you’re after a bigger payout, a Middlesbrough win to nil (likely around 3.50) or a correct score of 0-1 (around 6.00) offers value.
This Millwall vs Middlesbrough prediction boils down to one word: tight. Expect few chances, fewer goals, and a battle where one moment of quality—or one mistake—decides it.
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Middlesbrough didn't play better in the last H2H match!
U3.5 -385
No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -3852 138
Middlesbrough is expected to win with odds of 138Under 3.5 -385
No more than 3 goals will be scored in the matchNo -105
At least one team is not expected to scoreX2&U4.5 -179
Away win/draw and under 4.5 goals
0:1
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8
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6
-
10
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|
 Millwall |
12-Apr-25
1:0
| Middlesbrough  |
| Middlesbrough |
14-Dec-24
1:0
| Millwall |
| Millwall |
13-Jan-24
1:3
| Middlesbrough |
| Middlesbrough |
05-Aug-23
0:1
| Millwall |
| Middlesbrough |
14-Jan-23
1:0
| Millwall |
| Millwall |
08-Oct-22
2:0
| Middlesbrough |
| Millwall |
12-Mar-22
0:0
| Middlesbrough |
| Middlesbrough |
20-Nov-21
1:1
| Millwall |
| Millwall |
20-Mar-21
1:0
| Middlesbrough |
Recent Matches of Millwall| 13 Dec | L |
Millwall.
|
1:3
| Hull.
|
| 10 Dec | D |
Derby.
|
1:1
| Millwall.
|
Recent Matches Of Middlesbrough| 13 Dec | W | Middlesbroug. |
3:1 |
QPR. |
| 09 Dec | W |  Charlton. |
1:2 |
Middlesbroug. |
England - Championship| Team | Matches | Goals | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
 Leeds |
46 | 95-30 | 100 |
| 2 |
 Burnley |
46 | 69-16 | 100 |
| 3 |
 Sheffield Utd |
46 | 63-36 | 90 |
| 4 |
 Sunderland |
46 | 58-44 | 76 |
| 5 |
 Coventry |
46 | 64-58 | 69 |
| 6 |
 Bristol City |
46 | 59-55 | 68 |
| 7 |
 Blackburn |
46 | 53-48 | 66 |
| 8 |
Millwall |
46 | 47-49 | 66 |
| 9 |
 West Brom |
46 | 57-47 | 64 |
| 10 |
 Middlesbrough |
46 | 64-56 | 64 |
| 11 |
 Swansea |
46 | 51-56 | 61 |
| 12 |
 Sheffield Wedn |
46 | 60-69 | 58 |
| 13 |
 Norwich |
46 | 71-68 | 57 |
| 14 |
 Watford |
46 | 53-61 | 57 |
| 15 |
 QPR |
46 | 53-63 | 56 |
| 16 |
 Portsmouth |
46 | 58-71 | 54 |
| 17 |
 Oxford United |
46 | 49-65 | 53 |
| 18 |
 Stoke City |
46 | 45-62 | 51 |
| 19 |
Derby |
46 | 48-56 | 50 |
| 20 |
 Preston |
46 | 48-59 | 50 |
| 21 |
Hull City |
46 | 44-54 | 49 |
| 22 |
 Luton |
46 | 45-69 | 49 |
| 23 |
 Plymouth |
46 | 51-88 | 46 |
| 24 |
 Cardiff |
46 | 48-73 | 44 |
