Mirandes vs Malaga Prediction

Mirandes vs Malaga prediction: form, absences, betting angles

Our Mirandes vs Malaga prediction starts with a simple picture: Monday night football in Anduva, and two teams living very different seasons. Mark your calendars for 2026-02-02 at 19:30 GMT (20:30 local time), because Mirandés welcome Málaga to the Estadio Municipal de Anduva with pressure on both sides—just in completely opposite directions.

Málaga arrive sitting 3rd with 38 points, riding a six-game winning run that has turned them into one of the league’s most serious promotion candidates. Mirandés, meanwhile, are stuck in 22nd on 17 points, winless in eight, and they’ve been leaking goals like a cracked water bottle—conceding at least two in each of their last six league games, including a 3–0 loss to Sporting Gijón.

Match story so far: momentum vs survival

There’s a strong “can’t stop them” feel around Málaga right now. A 3–0 win over Burgos and a 1–0 away win at Córdoba show they can win pretty or win ugly—and promotion teams usually need both. Mirandés, to be fair, have shown they can bite back when nobody expects it: the 0–0 draw away at Las Palmas on 2025-12-08 came with huge win odds (6.5), so they clearly didn’t forget how to defend… they just misplace it most weeks.

Málaga also had their own “nice surprise” recently: a 1–1 draw away at Valladolid on 2025-11-29, when their win odds were 5.1. Not a win, but it screamed resilience.

Tactics and key players (and who is missing)

Málaga have looked more direct and aggressive since Juan Francisco Funes replaced Sergio Pellicer in November 2025. The base shape is a bolder 4-3-3, with an emphasis on getting actions closer to goal rather than sitting deep and hoping for a miracle. Up front, the goals have been shared, but Chupete (10) is the headline act, supported by Adrián Niño (6) and Rafael Rodríguez (5). If the attack is the band, goalkeeper Alfonso Herrero is the bouncer—he leads the league in saves and has played every minute so far (over 2,000). That’s “iron man” stuff.

Mirandés, coached by Antxón Muneta, tend to switch between a compact block and counter-attacks. With their recent defensive fragility, expect them to lean more conservative early, trying to keep the stadium calm. Their main threat is Carlos Fernández (8), with Gonzalo Petit (4) next in line.

• Málaga absences: Suspended Diego Murillo, Carlos Dotor. Injured Álex Pastor, Darko Brasanac, Luismi, Moussa Diarra, Ramón Enríquez.
• Mirandés absences: Suspended Iker Córdoba, Juan Gutiérrez. Injured Pablo López, Iker Varela, Selvi Clua.
• Referee: Daniel Palencia Caballero.

Head to head notes: Anduva can be tricky

The head to head history is not as one-sided as the table: in the last 13 meetings, Mirandés have 5 wins, Málaga 3, with 5 draws. Their last head-to-head on 2025-01-20 ended Mirandés 3–2 Málaga (Mirandés were 2.03 to win, Málaga 4.4), which is a good reminder that “bottom vs top” doesn’t always behave nicely for bettors.

Betting odds and NerdyTips picks

Let’s talk betting odds for the 1X2: Home 3.3, Draw 3.3, Away 2.3. The market leans Málaga, and our numbers lean even more.

• Best tip: X2 (Málaga win or draw) at 1.36, confidence 8.5/10.
• 1X2 pick: Away win (2) at 2.3, trust level 8.2.
• Total goals: Under 3.5 at 1.27, confidence 3.3 (lower confidence, but still supported by the match script).

Why does X2 rate so high? Málaga’s form and league position suggest they should avoid defeat, while Mirandés’ recent trend (conceding 2+ regularly) lines up with Málaga’s forward depth. Our projected match flow also fits: possession 47% vs 53%, shots 12 vs 14, on-target 3 vs 6, and corners 4 vs 5. That’s not domination, but it’s steady away control—the kind that wins 0–1 or 0–2.

Final score call and quick betting summary

Expected final score: 0:2, with a half-time prediction of 0:1. Cards are projected at 2-2, so nothing screams “card chaos,” just the usual Segunda stress.

Our second mention for clarity: this Mirandes vs Malaga prediction points to Málaga avoiding defeat (X2) as the safest route, while the braver option is the away win. If you like total goals markets, under 3.5 matches the expected scoreline—even if Mirandés make it uncomfortable for a while, as Anduva often does.