Mirassol vs Corinthians

Mirassol vs Corinthians prediction for a tight Sunday night

Mirassol vs Corinthians prediction time comes with a small twist in the clock: the ball rolls on 2026-05-04 at 00:30 GMT, but in Brazil it is Sunday evening, May 3, 20:30 in Brasília Time. Round 14 of the Campeonato Brasileiro Série A brings them to Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia (Maião) in Mirassol, with coverage spread across Record in selected regions, CazéTV on YouTube, Premiere pay-per-view, plus R7.com, RecordPlus, and Desimpedidos.

The table suggests nerves. Mirassol sit 18th with 9 points, while Corinthians are 14th with 15, yet both clubs have been drawing energy from continental nights. Mirassol are living a once-in-a-generation story after a miracle 4th-place finish in the 2025 Brasileirão and a first-ever Copa Libertadores run. They arrive buoyant from a 2–0 Libertadores win over Always Ready on April 29, where Eduardo and Alesson did the damage. Corinthians, guided by Fernando Diniz, are also riding a wave after beating Peñarol 2–0, and you can expect them to try to bring that confidence into the league.

Match context, tactics, and what to watch early

Maião often rewards teams that stay patient, and this feels like a game where the first 15 minutes matter more than the last 15. Mirassol’s recent pattern points to a compact base and quick releases into the channels, especially when they sense a bigger-name opponent might overcommit. That approach was visible in the surprising 1–1 away draw at RB Bragantino on 2026-04-23, a result few saw coming given the 6.25 win odds.

Corinthians under Diniz are usually associated with more ball circulation and structured build-up, but the league grind has forced pragmatism at times. Their own shock 1–1 away draw at Cruzeiro on 2026-02-25 (priced at 5.4) is a reminder that they can suffer without breaking, then nick moments. In simple terms, Mirassol may try to make the pitch feel small, while Corinthians will try to make the game feel calm.

• Competition details: Brasileirão Série A 2026, Round 14 at Maião in Mirassol, SP.
• Broadcast options: Record, CazéTV, Premiere, R7.com, RecordPlus, Desimpedidos.
• Head to head note: last meeting on 2025-05-10 ended Mirassol 2–1 Corinthians, with earlier betting odds of 3.28 vs 2.2.

Mirassol vs Corinthians prediction based on odds and stats

From a sports betting angle, the betting odds lean slightly to the hosts: Home win 2.35, Draw 3.25, Away win 3.3. That is interesting when you also consider squad value: Mirassol at €30.40m versus Corinthians at €154.30m. The market is basically saying “yes, Corinthians have the bigger name and budget, but this spot is tricky.” That lines up with the recent head to head and the way Mirassol tend to compete at home.

NerdyTips’ numbers push the story toward caution. The best tip is under 2.5 goals at 1.62, confidence 8.0/10. The AI-generated 1x2 leans to draw (X) at 3.25, albeit with a low trust score of 2.0, which is a polite way of saying the result is harder to pin down than the tempo. The projected full-time score is 0:0, with 0:0 at half-time as well, which fits a game where both sides protect themselves first.

The stat model supports that quieter script: Mirassol are forecast for 55% possession, 13 shots and 3 on target; Corinthians for 45%, 7 shots and 2 on target. With 9 total corners (6–3) and just three yellows overall (2–1), it reads like a match of territory swings rather than open chaos. Put together, our Mirassol vs Corinthians prediction for readers comparing betting odds is simple: the under 2.5 goals angle matches the expected shot quality, while the draw call fits a tight head to head that may not offer many clean chances.