Match Prediction
Match Prediction
Preview
The Modena vs Palermo prediction is on every Serie B fan’s mind ahead of the much-anticipated meeting at Stadio Alberto Braglia on January 24, 2026. With a 16:15 UTC kickoff, over 2,000 tickets already snapped up (1,650 by the ever-passionate Sicilian faithful), and Modena captain Antonio Pergreffi preparing for his emotional farewell, this fixture is shaping up to be as dramatic off the pitch as on it.
Palermo, currently sitting pretty in 4th place, have quietly become one of Serie B’s most consistent sides this season. Their recent 1-0 win over Spezia—thanks to a lightning-fast strike from Segre—showed both their attacking intent and their ability to grind out results under Filippo Inzaghi’s guidance. They’re now just a point behind third-placed Monza, and the pressure is on to keep that momentum alive.
Modena, meanwhile, are enjoying a resurgence. After a rough patch of three consecutive defeats, they bounced back with a convincing 2-0 victory over Pescara. Zampano and De Luca found the net, with Massolin’s assist providing the creative spark. That win nudged them back into the playoff zone and restored some much-needed confidence ahead of this crucial home fixture.
If you’re a fan of head to head stats, here’s something to chew on: Palermo have dominated recent meetings, winning five of the last ten encounters. Modena’s solitary win in that span is a reminder that the Gialloblù often find themselves playing catch-up. Across those ten games, Palermo outscored Modena 19 to 11, and the last time these two met (October 2024), it ended in a lively 2-2 draw.
Modena will have to make do without Fabio Ponsi, Giuseppe Caso, and Gregoire Defrel, all sidelined with injuries. That’s a blow for Pergreffi’s farewell, but the home side has shown resilience before—just ask Napoli, who were held to a 0-0 draw by Modena earlier this season despite the odds being stacked against the visitors.
Palermo, on the other hand, are reporting a clean bill of health. Inzaghi’s squad got back to work on January 19, focusing on possession drills and small-sided games, keeping things sharp and competitive. The Rosanero’s tactical approach has been pragmatic but effective, often prioritizing structure and quick transitions. Modena, with home advantage and the emotional boost of Pergreffi’s send-off, will likely look to control the tempo and exploit set pieces.
The anticipation is palpable, and with so many away fans traveling north, the Stadio Alberto Braglia is set for an electric atmosphere. If you’re looking for betting tips, remember: history favors Palermo, but Modena’s recent form and emotional motivation could tip the scales.
Now let’s get nerdy with the numbers—because this is NerdyTips, after all. The Modena vs Palermo prediction from our AI is as follows: expect a tight affair, with under 3.5 goals looking like the most valuable bet. The odds for this are 1.3, and while the trust score is a modest 4.6/10, it’s worth noting that both teams have been involved in low-scoring games lately.
The 1x2 market leans towards the home side, with a 1X prediction (Modena win or draw), confidence at 2.0, and odds of 1.38. The under/over market strongly favors under 3.5 goals (confidence 4.7), suggesting that fireworks might be limited to the stands rather than the scoreline.
Our predicted final score? A hard-fought 1:1 draw, with Modena likely to edge the first half 1:0 before Palermo claw their way back. Modena are expected to control 56% of possession, take 18 shots (6 on target), and win 6 corners. Palermo, despite less of the ball (44% possession), should still muster 12 shots (3 on target) and 3 corners. Expect 1 yellow card for Modena and 3 for Palermo—so maybe keep your popcorn handy for some spicy moments.
Looking at the financials, Palermo’s squad is valued at €34.50m, compared to Modena’s €27.15m—a gap that reflects Palermo’s depth but not necessarily the intangibles of motivation and home support. Remember, Modena’s last home game against Napoli saw them defy 14.25 odds to earn a draw, proving they’re no strangers to upsetting the script.
In summary, the Modena vs Palermo prediction points to a closely-fought contest, with nerves, nostalgia, and tactical discipline all playing a part. Whether you’re placing a bet or just tuning in for the drama, this is one Serie B fixture you won’t want to miss.
Read More
U3.5 -333
No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -3331X -294
Modena to win or drawUnder 3.5 -333
No more than 3 goals will be scored in the matchYes -118
Both teams are expected to score1X&U4.5 -192
Home win/draw and under 4.5 goals
1:0
1:1
|
|
0
-
2
-
5
|
|
 Palermo |
19-Oct-25
1:1
| Modena  |
| Palermo |
12-Jan-25
2:0
| Modena |
| Modena |
19-Oct-24
2:2
| Palermo |
| Palermo |
20-Jan-24
4:2
| Modena |
| Modena |
07-Oct-23
0:2
| Palermo |
| Palermo |
17-Mar-23
5:2
| Modena |
| Modena |
29-Oct-22
0:2
| Palermo |
Recent Matches of Modena| 31 Jan |
Empoli.
|
-
| Modena.
| |
| 24 Jan | D |
Modena.
|
0:0
| Palermo.
|
| 18 Jan | W |
Pescara.
|
0:2
| Modena.
|
| 11 Jan | L |
Padova.
|
2:0
| Modena.
|
| 26 Dec | L |
Modena.
|
1:2
| Monza.
|
| 20 Dec | L |
Modena.
|
1:2
| Venezia.
|
| 13 Dec | W |
Spezia.
|
0:2
| Modena.
|
| 08 Dec | L |
Modena.
|
1:2
| Catanzaro.
|
| 28 Nov | L |
Cesena.
|
1:0
| Modena.
|
| 23 Nov | D |
Modena.
|
0:0
| Sudtirol.
|
Recent Matches of Palermo
| 30 Jan |  Bari. |
- |
Palermo. | |
| 24 Jan | D | Modena. |
0:0 |
Palermo. |
| 18 Jan | W | Palermo. |
1:0 |
Spezia. |
| 11 Jan | D |  Mantova. |
1:1 |
Palermo. |
| 27 Dec | W | Palermo. |
1:0 |
Padova. |
| 20 Dec | D |  Avellino. |
2:2 |
Palermo. |
| 12 Dec | W | Palermo. |
1:0 |
Sampdoria. |
| 07 Dec | W |  Empoli. |
1:3 |
Palermo. |
| 29 Nov | W | Palermo. |
5:0 |
Carrarese. |
| 22 Nov | D |  Entella. |
1:1 |
Palermo. |
Italy - Serie B| Team | Matches | Goals | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Frosinone | 21 | 39-18 | 45 |
| 2 |
Venezia | 21 | 42-18 | 44 |
| 3 |
Monza | 21 | 32-17 | 41 |
| 4 |
Palermo | 21 | 30-14 | 38 |
| 5 |
Cesena | 21 | 28-24 | 34 |
| 6 |
Modena | 21 | 28-17 | 33 |
| 7 |
Juve Stabia | 21 | 23-22 | 33 |
| 8 |
Catanzaro | 21 | 27-24 | 32 |
| 9 |
Carrarese | 21 | 30-30 | 29 |
| 10 |
Empoli | 21 | 26-28 | 27 |
| 11 |
Sudtirol | 21 | 22-22 | 25 |
| 12 |
Padova | 21 | 20-25 | 25 |
| 13 |
Avellino | 21 | 24-34 | 25 |
| 14 |
Reggiana | 21 | 24-31 | 20 |
| 15 |
Spezia | 21 | 19-28 | 20 |
| 16 |
Virtus Entella | 21 | 18-28 | 20 |
| 17 |
Bari | 21 | 18-31 | 20 |
| 18 |
Sampdoria | 21 | 20-28 | 19 |
| 19 |
Mantova | 21 | 20-34 | 19 |
| 20 |
Pescara | 21 | 25-42 | 14 |
