Match Prediction
Match Prediction
Brazil
Monte Azul
€25.00Th.
Itapirense
-
Preview
Monte Azul and Itapirense are set to battle it out in the Paulista A3 on March 26, 2025, at 18:00 GMT, with Estádio Otacília Patrício Arroyo hosting the action. With both teams coming off surprising results in their previous matches, this one could be tighter than the odds suggest. But will Monte Azul justify their favorite status, or can Itapirense pull off another upset? Let’s break it down.
Monte Azul grabbed headlines recently by stunning XV de Piracicaba with a 4-2 victory, despite entering the game as clear underdogs. That kind of confidence-boosting result could be significant as they return to their home turf, where they tend to be much stronger. Historically, home teams win 39.8% of matches in the Paulista A3, and with Monte Azul priced at 1.76 for the win, the bookmakers clearly see them as favorites.
However, one thing stands out—Monte Azul’s goal-scoring exploits in that game were an exception rather than the rule. They are typically a more conservative side, and given the nature of this competition, a low-scoring affair seems likely.
On the other side, Itapirense defied expectations with a goalless draw against USAC in their last outing. That result may not have been flashy, but it showed their ability to grind out results, especially on the road. They were massive underdogs in that match, yet they frustrated their opponents for 90 minutes.
With their defensive setup proving effective, they might look to replicate that strategy here. The draw is priced at 3.18, and while it’s not the most exciting bet, it holds some value given how evenly matched these teams could be in a tactical battle.
If there’s one trend that stands out in the Paulista A3, it’s that goal-fests aren’t all that common. Just 31.5% of matches see over 2.5 goals, while 55.0% finish with at least two goals. This suggests that while goals aren’t rare, expecting a high-scoring game might be a stretch.
That’s why the smartest AI bet for Monte Azul vs Itapirense is under 2.5 goals, which comes with a trust rating of 7.0/10 and odds of 1.43. Given that Itapirense just played a 0-0 draw and Monte Azul isn’t known for consistently high-scoring games, this prediction makes a lot of sense.
Everything points to a tight, low-scoring contest. Monte Azul has the edge at home, but Itapirense won’t be easy to break down. Our AI leans towards a 1-0 Monte Azul win, with a goalless first half expected before the hosts find a way through in the second half.
While Monte Azul is favored at 1.76, the confidence level in this pick is only 1.8/10, indicating that while they should win, it’s not a lock. If you’re looking for a safer bet, under 2.5 goals is the way to go.
With both teams showing defensive resilience recently, this could be a match decided by a single moment of quality. Expect a cagey affair, with Monte Azul likely edging it—but don’t rule out another determined performance from Itapirense.
Read More
Monte Azul has an unusually high recent form. Be cautious!
U2.5 -233
No more than 2 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -2331 -132
Monte Azul is expected to win with odds of -132Under 2.5 -233
No more than 2 goals will be scored in the matchNo -200
At least one team is not expected to score1X&U3.5 -217
Home win/draw and under 3.5 goals
1:0
|
|
2
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1
-
0
|
|
 Monte Azul |
26-Mar-25
3:2
| Itapirense  |
| Itapirense |
22-Mar-25
0:0
| Monte Azul |
Recent Matches of Monte Azul| 14 Jan | W |
Santo Andre.
|
0:4
| Monte Azul.
|
| 11 Jan | D |
Monte Azul.
|
1:1
| Inter L.
|
Recent Matches of Itapirense
Brazil - Paulista - A3| Team | Matches | Goals | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Monte Azul | 15 | 27-14 | 30 |
| 2 |
Marília | 15 | 24-17 | 28 |
| 3 |
Desportivo Bra | 15 | 19-16 | 25 |
| 4 |
Sertãozinho | 15 | 14-8 | 25 |
| 5 |
Catanduva | 15 | 17-17 | 24 |
| 6 |
Rio Branco SP | 15 | 25-15 | 23 |
| 7 |
União São Jo | 15 | 18-13 | 22 |
| 8 |
Itapirense | 15 | 14-13 | 20 |
| 9 |
Rio Preto | 15 | 12-14 | 20 |
| 10 |
USAC | 15 | 15-22 | 17 |
| 11 |
XV de Jau | 15 | 9-12 | 17 |
| 12 |
Francana | 15 | 17-19 | 17 |
| 13 |
EC São Bernar | 15 | 11-15 | 16 |
| 14 |
Bandeirante SP | 15 | 12-20 | 15 |
| 15 |
EC Lemense | 15 | 12-21 | 13 |
| 16 |
Comercial | 15 | 8-18 | 11 |
