Moreirense vs Gil Vicente Prediction

Moreirense vs Gil Vicente prediction: Minho derby tips

The Moreirense vs Gil Vicente prediction for Saturday, 7 February 2026 (kickoff 15:30 GMT) comes with a rare bonus: context that actually matters. This Minho derby lands right in the middle of the European race, with Gil Vicente 5th on 34 points and Moreirense 6th on 30. One good afternoon in Moreira de Cónegos can turn the table into a different story by nightfall.

What’s at stake at the Comendador

Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas has been a helpful ally for Moreirense. Even with mixed form overall and a recent 2-1 defeat to Alverca, they’ve collected five home wins in their last nine league games there. Gil Vicente arrive with a steadier season under César Peixoto, even if the recent 3.1 loss at FC Porto is still fresh.

• Moreirense can cut the gap to one point with a win and put real pressure on the final European place.
• Gil Vicente can strengthen their hold on 5th, which is exactly where you want to be when spring starts feeling close.

Tactical notes and team news you should not ignore

Moreirense coach Vasco Costa is expected to keep the flexible base: 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1, with a high press designed to disturb build-up play. The big question is whether they have enough punch if Guilherme Schettine (9 league goals) misses out again; he’s a major doubt after sitting out the last two with a knock. Alan remains central to their transitions, but the squad has taken a hit with Vasco Sousa still out (broken fibula) and Lawrence Ofori no longer around after his move to Santa Clara.

Gil Vicente, usually in a fluid 4-2-3-1, have been more pragmatic this season. Peixoto has leaned into defensive order, giving them one of the better defensive records outside the top four. They’ll still have to manage absences: Zé Carlos is out long-term, Martín Fernández is suspended after a red card, and Facundo Cáseres is nearing a return but may not start. Luís Esteves (5 assists) is the creative reference, while Santi García offers that “something happens when he gets it” threat in the final third. Gil Vicente also added depth on 3 February 2026 with a young arrival from Porto’s academy.

Head to head: a derby that rarely feels settled

The head to head history is balanced: across the last 23 meetings, Moreirense have 8 wins to Gil Vicente’s 6, with 9 draws. The last meeting on 2024-11-08 ended 3-2 to Moreirense, a reminder that this fixture can swing quickly. And both teams have recent “nobody saw that coming” moments—Moreirense beating Sporting 2-1 as 8.7 underdogs (2024-12-05), and Gil Vicente holding Sporting 1-1 when Sporting were priced at 1.5 (2026-01-02).

Moreirense vs Gil Vicente prediction: AI picks and betting odds

Now to the numbers that drive sports betting decisions. The main betting odds are: Home win 3.55, Draw 3.1, Away win 2.35. That away price tells you the market respects Gil Vicente’s structure, even away from home.

Our AI angles: value, risk, and how the stats connect

The standout is the under 2.5 goals bet (odds 1.52) with a confidence of 3.55/10 (trust level 3.6). That’s not a “lock”, it’s a “most logical” angle—especially when the expected match flow looks competitive but not chaotic.

• Projected possession is almost split (Moreirense 51% vs Gil Vicente 49%), suggesting long spells without clear domination.
• Expected shots: Moreirense 9, Gil Vicente 14, but shots on target are level (4-4). That often points to pressure without constant high-quality finishing.
• Estimated cards: 2 yellow cards each—enough bite for a derby, not necessarily enough to break the game open.
• 12 total corners (5-7) hints at territory battles and blocks, which can still end in low totals.

1X2 market: away win is the lean, but keep discipline

For the 1X2, our model recommends 2 (Gil Vicente to win) at 2.35, with a low trust level of 2.1. Translation: the pick aligns with Gil Vicente’s steadier setup and squad continuity, but the margin is thin—especially with Moreirense’s home strength and the derby factor.

Correct score leans conservative

The final score prediction is 0-2, with a 0-1 first half. If Schettine is limited or out, that fits the idea of Moreirense working hard for entries but struggling to convert. For bettors, pairing Moreirense vs Gil Vicente prediction thinking with sensible bankroll management matters: under 2.5 looks like the cleaner route than over-committing on the away win.