MTK Budapest vs Ferencvaros Prediction

MTK Budapest vs Ferencvaros prediction: goals, angles, value

The MTK Budapest vs Ferencvaros prediction for Monday, 2026-02-23 (19:00 GMT) starts with a familiar Budapest script: MTK trying to turn tempo and nerve into points, and Ferencváros arriving with the bigger wallet, the bigger squad, and the bigger expectations. The Hidegkuti Nándor Stadium hosts another chapter of the Örökrangadó, with Fradi sitting 2nd on 40 points and MTK 9th on 25.

It is also the kind of derby that can feel like two matches in one: the league game everyone sees, and the European calendar everyone feels. Ferencváros are coming off a Europa League play-off first leg on 2026-02-19, a 2-1 defeat to Ludogorets, and the return leg is already peeking around the corner. If there is a “trap game” in a title chase, this is usually what it looks like.

Context, team news, and how the game may unfold

MTK under Máté Pinezits lean into an attacking approach, and it shows: they have scored in each of their last six games, but they have also conceded far too easily, with no clean sheets in their last eight. Their latest outing, a 2-2 draw with Puskás Akadémia, summed it up nicely—Adrian Zeljković and Benedek Varju delivered up front, while the back line delivered drama.

• MTK availability: Captain Mihály Kata is back in full training after a serious ankle injury (a major boost), but Jakub Plsek (Achilles) and István Bognár (sole inflammation) remain out.
• Ferencváros availability: Stefan Gartenmann is the key long-term concern; the bigger issue is fatigue and rotation after Europe.

On the Ferencváros side, January brought a headline: the permanent signing of Naby Keïta. Even if his minutes have not always matched the name, he adds control and pedigree. Fradi also sold young star Alex Tóth to Bournemouth for a reported £10.4m—great for the balance sheet, less convenient when you still need a midfield to run a derby.

Robbie Keane’s usual 4-2-3-1 should still appear, even if the personnel changes. Expect players like Kristoffer Zachariassen and Yusuf Bamidele to carry the attacking load, while Keane tries to keep the league push on track—Tottenham rumors or not.

Odds, head to head, and the betting story

The market has a clear favorite: Home win 5.0, Draw 4.4, Away win 1.62. That gap mirrors the squad values—MTK at €11.38m versus Ferencváros at €43.47m—and also the trend that matters for a head to head reader: Fradi are unbeaten in their last 11 away league matches against MTK.

Still, MTK have shown they can bite. The most recent head to head on 2025-07-26 ended 1-1, despite Ferencváros being priced like a near lock (away odds 1.53). Fradi also drew 1-1 away at Fenerbahçe on 2025-11-27 with win odds around 6.9—proof they can survive tough nights, but also that they do not always finish the job.

Our MTK Budapest vs Ferencvaros prediction and betting tips

For this MTK Budapest vs Ferencvaros prediction, NerdyTips points to goals. The best tip is Over 2.5 goals at 1.53 with a trust rating of 8.0/10, and our model agrees: over 2.5 is the strongest under/over pick (confidence 8.0, odds 1.53). The logic is simple—MTK’s recent habit of conceding, plus Ferencváros’s shot volume, is a recipe that rarely ends 0-0 unless someone forgets to bring the strikers.

• AI projected score: 1-3 (half-time: 0-1)
• 1X2 call: Away win “2” (confidence 5.7, odds 1.62)
• Possession: MTK 43% vs Ferencváros 57%
• Shots: MTK 8 (3 on target) vs Ferencváros 15 (4 on target)
• Corners: MTK 2 vs Ferencváros 5 (total 7)
• Yellow cards: 2-2

The away-win price is fair given the talent gap, but rotation risk keeps it from being a “print money” selection. That is why the goals market stands out in our betting tips: even if Fradi rotate, the game state still favors chances at both ends. If MTK defend like they have lately, the Over 2.5 does not need a miracle—just the usual derby honesty.