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Match Prediction

Nacional vs Rio Ave Prediction

Finished
Portugal flag Portugal
Primeira Liga

Nacional

€16.77m

10 May10:30
3 : 3

Rio Ave

€40.15m

Preview

Nacional vs Rio Ave Prediction Primeira Liga

Nacional vs Rio Ave Prediction: A Tight Mid-Table Tussle in Madeira

When Nacional vs Rio Ave meet on May 10th at Estádio da Madeira, it won’t just be a battle for bragging rights—it’s a fight for crucial points in the Primeira Liga’s mid-table scramble. With just three points and two places separating these sides, this matchup promises tension, tactical chess, and perhaps a moment of magic to tip the scales. But where does the value lie for bettors? Let’s dive into the numbers, trends, and betting tips to uncover the smart plays.

The Stakes: Survival, Pride, and a Dash of Drama

Nacional (13th, 33 points) and Rio Ave (11th, 36 points) aren’t fighting for Europe, but don’t underestimate the desperation here. A win could secure safety; a loss might drag either team into the relegation dogfight. Recent form adds spice: Nacional’s shock 2-0 win over FC Porto in January (at odds of 8.0!) proved they can punch above their weight, while Rio Ave’s gritty 2-2 draw with Porto in February showed their resilience. But past heroics don’t guarantee future glory—especially when the head-to-head history is a mixed bag. Nacional won their last meeting 2-0 in 2022, but Rio Ave’s deeper squad (€40.15m market value vs. Nacional’s €16.77m) suggests they’ve got the tools to flip the script.

What the Numbers Say: Possession, Shots, and a Likely Goalfest?

Stats paint a picture of a game where Nacional dominates the ball (56% possession expected) but Rio Ave waits to strike. Here’s the projected breakdown:

  • Shots: 18 for Nacional, 11 for Rio Ave
  • On target: 4 vs. 3
  • Corners: 6 for Nacional, 3 for Rio Ave
  • Yellow cards: 1 for Nacional, 2 for Rio Ave

But here’s the kicker: Primeira Liga games average just 2.6 goals, with only 26.8% exceeding 3.5 goals. That’s why NerdyTips’ AI recommends under 3.5 total goals (odds 1.33, trust 7.7/10). It’s a safe bet in a league where defenses often outshine attacks.

The AI’s Crystal Ball: Why Rio Ave or Draw (X2) Makes Sense

Despite Nacional’s home advantage, the AI leans toward Rio Ave or draw (X2) at odds of 1.89 (trust level 2.0/10). Why? A few clues:

  1. League trends: Away teams win 32.4% of Primeira Liga matches—not far off home wins (43.6%).
  2. Financial muscle: Rio Ave’s squad value is more than double Nacional’s, hinting at superior depth.
  3. Predicted score: The AI forecasts a 0-1 Rio Ave win, with a goalless first half. Tight, tense, and decided by a single moment.

That said, Nacional’s recent giant-killing acts remind us that stats don’t always tell the full story. But at odds of 1.95 for a home win vs. 3.75 for an away victory, the market isn’t fully convinced either.

Final Verdict: Trust the Trends, But Expect a Grind

This Nacional vs Rio Ave prediction boils down to one word: caution. With both teams desperate to avoid mistakes, the smart money aligns with the AI’s picks:

  • Under 3.5 goals (1.33): A near-perfect fit with league averages and both teams’ scoring habits.
  • Rio Ave or draw (X2) (1.89): Slight edge to the visitors, but don’t bet the house—this one’s tight.

So grab your popcorn, but don’t expect a fireworks display. In Madeira, it’s likelier to be a battle of wits—and maybe one decisive slip-up.

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AI Predictions
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Warning

Meaningless match!

Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for Nacional vs Rio Ave

U3.5 -303

No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -303
7/10

1x2 Tip

X2 -118

Rio Ave to win or draw
2/10

Total Goals

Under 3.5 -303

No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match
7/10

Both Teams To Score

No 110

At least one team is not expected to score
1/10

Bet Builder Tip

X2&U4.5 114

Away win/draw and under 4.5 goals
1/10
Both Teams To Score

Correct Score

0:1

Stats Predictions

56%
Ball Possession
44%
18
Total Shots
11
4
Shots on Goal
3
8
Shots Off Goal
5
6
Corners
3
1
Yellow Cards
2

Average / Match

2.2
Total Goals
2.5
0.8
Goals Scored
0.9
1.4
Goals Against
1.6
51%
Possession
48%
14
Total Shots
11.3
4
Shots on Goal
3.6
6.6
Shots off Goal
5.5
12.6
Fouls
14.1
4.8
Corners
3.8
2
Offsides
2.3
1.9
Yellow Cards
2.5
0.2
Red Cards
0
347
Total Passes
358

Overview Last 10 Matches

3
Wins
2
6
Over 1.5 Goals
9
5
Over 2.5 Goals
4
1
Over 3.5 Goals
1
4
Both Teams Scored
4
0
Unexpected Wins
0
0
Unexpected Loses
0

Head to Head

Nacional
6 - 8 - 9
Rio Ave
Nacional Nacional 10-May-25
3:3
Rio Ave Rio Ave
Rio Ave Rio Ave 29-Dec-24
2:1
Nacional Nacional
Rio Ave Rio Ave 31-Jul-24
1:1
Nacional Nacional
Nacional Nacional 10-Apr-22
2:0
Rio Ave Rio Ave
Rio Ave Rio Ave 28-Nov-21
1:0
Nacional Nacional
Nacional Nacional 19-May-21
1:2
Rio Ave Rio Ave
Rio Ave Rio Ave 05-Feb-21
0:0
Nacional Nacional
Nacional Nacional 17-Mar-19
0:1
Rio Ave Rio Ave
Rio Ave Rio Ave 05-Nov-18
3:3
Nacional Nacional
Nacional Nacional 29-Apr-17
0:2
Rio Ave Rio Ave

Profile time Recent Matches of Nacional

13 Dec Nacional Nacional.
-
Tondela. Tondela
07 DecL Alverca Alverca.
1:0
Nacional. Nacional

Profile time Recent Matches of Rio Ave

13 DecRio Ave Rio Ave.
-
Guimaraes.Guimaraes
06 DecWAFS AFS.
1:2
Rio Ave.Rio Ave

Portugal - Primeira Liga Portugal - Primeira Liga

Team Matches Goals Points
1 Sporting CP Sporting CP34
88-27
82
2 Benfica Benfica34
84-28
80
3 FC Porto FC Porto34
65-30
71
4 SC Braga SC Braga34
55-30
66
5 Santa Clara Santa Clara34
36-32
57
6 Guimaraes Guimaraes34
47-37
54
7 Famalicao Famalicao34
44-39
47
8 Estoril Estoril34
48-53
46
9 Casa Pia Casa Pia34
39-44
45
10 Moreirense Moreirense34
42-50
40
11 Rio Ave Rio Ave34
39-55
38
12 Arouca Arouca34
35-49
38
13 GIL Vicente GIL Vicente34
34-47
34
14 Nacional Nacional34
32-50
34
15 Estrela Estrela34
24-50
29
16 AVS AVS34
25-60
27
17 Farense Farense34
25-46
27
18 Boavista Boavista34
24-59
24
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