Neom SC vs Al Riyadh Prediction

Neom SC vs Al Riyadh prediction: smart angles for Tabuk

Neom SC vs Al Riyadh prediction time is here, and it comes with a very specific setting: Friday, February 6, 2026, at King Khalid Sport City Stadium in Tabuk, kicking off at 14:25 GMT (17:25 local). The story blends big ambition with pure survival mode, and that contrast should shape both the tactics and the betting choices.

Match context, squads, and what to expect early

Neom, the “Tabuk Club” project that has pulled plenty of attention (and investment) this season, enters the round in 9th with 24 points. Al Riyadh sit 15th on 12 points and are still looking over their shoulder at the relegation line. Interestingly, the squad value numbers lean the other way: Neom’s squad is valued around €84.90m, while Al Riyadh’s group is listed at €184.80m. On paper, that looks backwards for the table, but football has never cared much for tidy spreadsheets.

Neom’s team news remains defined by one big moment from earlier in the campaign: goalkeeper Marcin Bułka’s ACL injury ended his season, so Luís Maximiano has taken over the gloves. Further forward, the attacking shape is built around Alexandre Lacazette as the main finisher, with Saïd Benrahma adding creativity and Luciano Rodríguez offering youthful pace and movement. Abbas Al-Hassan is still out long term, but recent reports suggest the key names have been available, and Neom’s latest performance backed that up.

That performance was a 3-0 win over Damac on January 30, a strong response after a rough spell where they went six matches without a win. The catch: they have often looked more comfortable away than at home, so this Tabuk fixture is a test of consistency rather than talent.

Tactical notes: Galtier’s pressure vs Carreño’s caution

Christophe Galtier has not been shy in front of the microphones, calling out his squad’s attitude and even hinting that famous names can sit if effort drops. On the pitch, Neom usually line up in a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1, trying to feed Benrahma between the lines and give Lacazette chances inside the box.

One key statistical worry for Neom backers: nearly 70% of their conceded goals have arrived after halftime. If you like live betting, that second-half trend is worth keeping in mind.

Al Riyadh, under José Daniel Carreño since November 2025, look like a team built to “annoy” opponents into mistakes. Expect a compact 4-5.2 or even 5-4-1, with Yoann Barbet organizing the defense, Milan Borjan handling the difficult saves, and Mamadou Sylla plus Tozé carrying most of the attacking responsibility. Carreño is reportedly close to full strength again, with no major new injuries flagged after their recent game schedule.

• Head to head: Neom won the earlier meeting this season 3-2 (September 27, 2025).
• Al Riyadh away form: winless on the road this season (3 draws, 6 losses).
• Recent statement result: on 2026-01-25, Al Riyadh drew 1-1 with Al Hilal despite massive odds (reported as high as 16.0).

Neom SC vs Al Riyadh prediction: odds, totals, and best bet

The 1X2 betting odds are clear: Neom win 1.65, draw 4.45, Al Riyadh win 5.2. Markets see Neom as the likely winner, but not an automatic one—especially because Al Riyadh have recently shown they can keep games tight when they set up to defend first.

Our AI model points in the same direction on the match result, leaning to a home win (1) at 1.65, but with a modest trust score of 2.1. In plain words: Neom are favored, yet the data does not scream “easy money.” That fits the match script: Neom should have more of the ball, but Al Riyadh’s deep shape can slow the tempo and limit clean chances.

Where the model is more interested is the total goals angle. The standout pick is under 3.5 goals at 1.39, confidence 3.7/10. It’s not high confidence, but it matches how Carreño wants to play, and it also respects the idea that Neom may control the game without turning it into a goal festival.

AI picks and projected score

• Main pick: Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.39, confidence 3.7/10)
• 1X2 lean: Neom to win (odds 1.65, trust 2.1)
• Expected final score: 2-0
• First-half score call: 1-0

Final thought for bettors: this Neom SC vs Al Riyadh prediction is less about fireworks and more about control. If Neom score first, the game can look “finished” long before the final whistle—especially if Al Riyadh arrive with five defenders and the energy of a team that would happily take a point and run. Under 3.5 goals feels like the sensible umbrella bet, with Neom on the 1X2 as the more adventurous side option.