Match Prediction
Match Prediction
Preview
The Hudson River Derby is always a date to circle on the calendar, and this year’s New York Red Bulls vs New York City FC prediction has fans, punters, and stat-heads buzzing. With both teams hungry for points as the Major League Soccer season heads into its final stretch, the stakes are high for this September 28, 2025, encounter. Let’s break down the teams, tactics, and numbers to see what might unfold when these New York rivals meet again.
The Red Bulls, currently in 17th with 40 points, have had a rollercoaster season. Their recent form is a mixed bag: a strong 2-0 win away at CF Montréal was a welcome boost, but it followed a rough patch of two defeats and a draw. If there’s a silver lining, it’s their home record—10 wins, 3 draws, and just 2 losses at Red Bull Arena. That’s a fortress most teams would envy.
NYCFC, meanwhile, are riding higher in the standings at 8th with 50 points. They’ve already clinched a playoff spot, powered by 16 wins and a 53% win rate. While their home form is sparkling (11 wins from 15), their away record is more modest: 5 wins, 5 draws, 5 losses. Still, they recently pulled off a gritty 2-2 away draw at Inter Miami—a result that raised eyebrows and perhaps a few hopes for their road resilience.
Injuries are biting both squads. The Red Bulls are missing key contributors like Lewis Morgan, who can’t seem to catch a break with his recurring quad troubles. Cameron Harper’s season is likely over after MCL surgery, and the injury list reads like a hospital roll call: Wiktor Bogacz, S. Ngoma, Kyle Duncan, Marcelo Morales, J. McCarthy, and long-term absentee A. Marcucci. NYCFC aren’t faring much better, with Keaton Parks, Malachi Jones, and Nico Cavallo all sidelined due to leg injuries. Thiago Martins and Hannes Wolf have also spent time in the treatment room, making squad rotation a tactical necessity.
Under Sandro Schwarz, the Red Bulls have focused on defensive solidity and swift counter-attacks. Schwarz isn’t afraid to mix things up, even rolling out three center-backs during last year’s playoffs. Off the pitch, there’s been movement too: Vedad Ibisevic has moved on, Ibrahim Sekagya has stepped up, and Michael Bradley is now head coach—yes, that Michael Bradley, bringing his USMNT know-how to the Big Apple.
NYCFC, for their part, have stuck to a possession-based style, but injuries have forced them to get creative, especially in midfield. Their squad value stands at €42.47m, a touch higher than the Red Bulls’ €37.40m, and that depth could be crucial in a derby where every inch matters.
Now, let’s get nerdy with the numbers. The current betting odds for this New York Red Bulls vs New York City FC prediction show the home win at 2.48, the draw at 3.5, and the away win at 2.7. Our AI, never one to shy away from a calculated risk, suggests under 3.5 total goals as the best tip—odds of 1.4 and a trust rating of 4.6/10. Not the most confident pick, but hey, that’s what makes derbies fun.
Looking at the stats, a tight contest is expected. The Red Bulls are projected to edge possession (53% to NYCFC’s 47%), with 12 shots to NYCFC’s 10. Both sides are expected to hit the target four times and rack up a combined seven corners. Even the yellow cards are predicted to be perfectly balanced: two apiece. The most likely final score? Our AI leans 2-1 to the Red Bulls, with a 1-0 halftime lead.
Recent head to head meetings have been unpredictable. The last time these two met, NYCFC ran riot with a 5-1 victory, but that result was a big outlier. With both teams missing key players and both sets of coaches known for tactical surprises, this derby could be decided by a single moment—or a single mistake.
So, for our New York Red Bulls vs New York City FC prediction: expect a hard-fought derby, likely under 3.5 goals, and a slight edge for the Red Bulls to take revenge for last year’s drubbing. Just don’t bet the house—this is MLS, after all, where anything can happen!
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New York Red Bulls didn't play better in the last H2H match!
U3.5 -250
No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -2501 148
New Y is expected to win with odds of 148Under 3.5 -250
No more than 3 goals will be scored in the matchYes -167
Both teams are expected to score1X&U4.5 -143
Home win/draw and under 4.5 goals
2:1
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16
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4
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11
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 New Y |
17-May-25
2:0
| New Y  |
| New Y |
23-Nov-24
0:2
| New Y |
| New Y |
29-Sep-24
1:5
| New Y |
| New Y |
19-May-24
2:1
| New Y |
| New Y |
16-Sep-23
0:0
| New Y |
| New Y |
04-Aug-23
1:0
| New Y |
| New Y |
14-May-23
1:0
| New Y |
| New Y |
17-Sep-22
2:0
| New Y |
| New Y |
17-Jul-22
0:1
| New Y |
| New Y |
23-Jun-22
3:0
| New Y |
USA - Major League Soccer| Team | Matches | Goals | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Philadelphia | 34 | 57-35 | 66 |
| 2 |
FC Cincinnati | 34 | 52-40 | 65 |
| 3 |
Inter Miami | 34 | 81-55 | 65 |
| 4 |
Charlotte | 34 | 55-46 | 59 |
| 5 |
New York City | 34 | 50-44 | 56 |
| 6 |
Nashville SC | 34 | 58-45 | 54 |
| 7 |
Columbus Crew | 34 | 55-51 | 54 |
| 8 |
Chicago Fire | 34 | 68-60 | 53 |
| 9 |
Orlando City | 34 | 63-51 | 53 |
| 10 |
New York Red | 34 | 48-47 | 43 |
| 11 |
New England | 34 | 44-51 | 36 |
| 12 |
Toronto FC | 34 | 37-44 | 32 |
| 13 |
CF Montreal | 34 | 34-60 | 28 |
| 14 |
Atlanta United | 34 | 38-63 | 28 |
| 15 |
DC United | 34 | 30-66 | 26 |
