NK Varazdin vs Din. Zagreb Prediction

NK Varazdin vs Din. Zagreb prediction for Sunday afternoon

The NK Varazdin vs Din. Zagreb prediction for 2026-02-22 (kick-off 14:00 GMT) comes with a familiar theme in the HNL: Dinamo Zagreb arrive as the league’s pace-setters, while NK Varaždin keep trying to prove they’re more than just a nice story. They meet at Stadion Anđelko Herjavec (Varteks), and the mood is simple: Varaždin want another big scalp, Dinamo want the points without the drama.

How the game may look on the pitch

Dinamo are expected to control the match with their usual ball-heavy style, and the numbers back it up: projected possession is 39% for Varaždin and 61% for Dinamo. That fits the table picture too—Dinamo sit 1st on 48 points, while Varaždin are 4th with 32, very much in the European places and enjoying their “surprise package” label.

Form-wise, Dinamo’s week has been busy. They come in after a 0–2 home loss to Genk in the Europa League on February 19, but their HNL form still looks strong, including a 4–0 win over Istra and a 0–0 with Rijeka. Mario Kovačević has talked about the “every three days” rhythm—European life—so rotation and fresh legs could matter.

Varaždin, coached by Nikola Šafarić, are coming off a 3–1 defeat to Rijeka (February 14). Still, they had just put together a three-game winning streak earlier in February, and Šafarić has been clear: stay calm, believe, and don’t freeze just because the shirt is blue.

Key angles: injuries, set pieces, and that familiar head to head story

• Dinamo injuries: Ismaël Bennacer is out (hamstring/calf), and Raúl Torrente remains sidelined long term (ACL).
• Varaždin absences: Frane Maglica and Roberto Punčec are expected to miss out; plus Leon Belcar has recently left for Lokomotiva.
• Set-piece warning: Šafarić has mentioned frustration with set-piece defending—Dinamo’s bigger targets, like Dion Drena Beljo, won’t ignore that.
• Counter threat: Varaždin can play more “rasterećenije” against giants, using speed (Šego, Vuk) to break quickly.
• Head to head: historically rough for Varaždin—20 losses in the last 22 meetings—though the last meeting on 2025-08-30 ended 2–2.

AI picks, betting odds, and score prediction

Now to the sports betting part. The current betting odds price this as a Dinamo-forward game: Home win 5.9, Draw 4.0, Away win 1.59. That lines up with our NK Varazdin vs Din. Zagreb prediction leaning to the visitors, even if Dinamo’s Europa League “hangover” risk is real.

Best bets from our model

• Main tip: Over 1.5 goals (odds 1.26), confidence 5.1/10.
• 1X2 prediction: Away win (2) at 1.59, trust rating 5.0/10.
• Expected final score: 0:2 (HT 0:1).

The stats projections support that story: Dinamo are forecast for 15 shots to Varaždin’s 10, with 5 on target vs 3. Corners are expected to be fairly balanced (4–3 to Dinamo, 7 total), and cards lean slightly toward the hosts (2–1), which often happens when you’re chasing shadows and shirt-tugging becomes a hobby.

One more reality check: squad value. Varaždin are around €9.55m, Dinamo €58.20m. Money doesn’t score goals by itself, but depth helps—especially after European nights.

How to use this in sports betting

1. Safer angle: Over 1.5 goals fits a 0:2 type script and doesn’t require Varaždin to contribute.
2. Result angle: Dinamo to win matches the head to head trend and the away-win betting odds.

If Varaždin repeat their “we fear nobody” moments—like that surprise 1–1 at Hajduk when odds were against them—this could get sweaty. Still, the clean model path points to Dinamo Zagreb doing the job, with at least two goals in the match.