NK Varazdin vs Hajduk Split Prediction

NK Varazdin vs Hajduk Split prediction for Round 24

The NK Varazdin vs Hajduk Split prediction for Saturday, February 28, 2026 (16:45 GMT) comes with a familiar feeling: Varaždin at home is rarely comfortable for Hajduk, even when the table says it should be. They meet at Stadion Anđelko Herjavec with Hajduk in 2nd on 43 points and Varaždin in 4th on 32, but the story this season has been more complicated than “second vs fourth.”

What to expect: styles, absences, and a tricky host

Varaždin coach Nikola Šafarić has been clear about the approach: his side must be aggressive and “alive on the ball.” That sounds simple, but it is a direct response to what happened recently. Against Dinamo (0–4) and Rijeka (1–3), Varaždin had decent moments early, then fell apart after conceding. With the “Big Three” coming one after another, Šafarić’s biggest job is keeping focus for 90 minutes, not just 45.

• Varaždin’s key men: Ivan Mamut is the main finisher, while Aleksa Latković is the creative engine and a league leader for chances created (51).
• Varaždin’s problem: the back line is badly hit—Frane Maglica, Luka Škaričić, Roberto Punčec, and Mateo Barać are sidelined, and Silvio Ilinković is also out.
• Hajduk’s form: Gonzalo Garcia has them playing a more structured, watchable style, backed by wins over Rijeka (1–0) and Osijek (2–0).
• Hajduk’s stars: Marko Livaja remains the reference point, and Michele Šego (10 league goals) keeps pace in the scorer race.

Garcia’s Hajduk often leans into high-intensity, man-to-man work across the pitch. It can squeeze teams into rushed clearances, then turn those second balls into sustained pressure. One small wrinkle: Hajduk is adjusting defensively after selling teenage talent Branimir Mlačić to Udinese, and new signing Dario Marešić has been brought in to help with balance and width. Also, goalkeeper Ivica Ivušić is out, alongside Bruno Durdov, Iker Almena, and Mihael Škorić—important context for anyone considering sports betting angles like both teams to score.

And yes, Varaždin has been a “bogey team” in the head to head this season: a 2–0 win in September and a surprising 1–1 draw away in November. Even the weather has played a role in the build-up, with heavy snowfall forcing some very practical training sessions just to keep the pitch usable.

AI picks, betting odds, and how the numbers connect

Now to the market side of this NK Varazdin vs Hajduk Split prediction. The 1x2 betting odds currently read 3.7 (home), 3.4 (draw), and 2.1 (away). On squad value alone (€9.55m vs €38.50m), Hajduk’s price makes sense, but Varaždin’s recent head to head results explain why it isn’t shorter.

NerdyTips tips: safest angle first

• Best value bet: X2 (Hajduk win or draw) at 1.3, trust rating 8.5/10
• 1x2 pick: Away win (2) at 2.1, trust rating 7.9/10
• Goals market: Under 3.5 goals at 1.29, confidence 4.7/10

Why does X2 rate higher than the straight away win? Because Varaždin’s home setup can still cause friction, especially with Latković creating chances and Mamut needing only one good look. But the injury list in defense tilts the balance toward Hajduk controlling territory. The projected possession split (40% vs 60%) supports that, as do the shot estimates: 11–13 overall, with Hajduk expected to land 5 on target compared to Varaždin’s 3.

Expected game script and correct score lean

The model points to a tight start: first-half score prediction is 0:0, with a final score prediction of 0:1. Corners are set around 8 total (3–5), and discipline looks even (2 yellow cards each). Put together, it reads like Hajduk pressure without chaos—steady control, not a goal fest. Under 3.5 goals fits the script, even if the confidence is modest.

Final takeaway for sports betting: if you want the safer route, the X2 looks built for this head to head reality. If you’re chasing the bigger payout, the away win at 2.1 matches the expected match flow—and it only needs one moment of Livaja or Šego quality to land.