Nottingham vs Fenerbahce Prediction

Nottingham vs Fenerbahce prediction: nerves, numbers, and a lead

The Nottingham vs Fenerbahce prediction for February 26, 2026 (20:00 GMT) starts with one simple truth: this tie already has a story. Nottingham Forest return to the City Ground holding a 3-0 advantage from Istanbul, where Murillo (21’), Igor Jesus (43’), and Morgan Gibbs-White (50’) turned the Şükrü Saracoğlu into what away fans cheekily called the “Kadikoy silence”. Now Forest just need to be smart, while Fenerbahçe need to be perfect… and also lucky.

Second leg context: why the mood feels so different

This is the UEFA Europa League knockout round play-off second leg, and it comes with a subplot you couldn’t script much better. Forest’s new boss Vítor Pereira was hired on February 15 and immediately faced his former club in his first match. He knows Fenerbahçe, the noise, the expectations, and the pressure points. He also arrives with a new backroom staff, aiming to steady a season that has had more managerial changes than clean sheets.

• First leg: Fenerbahçe 0-3 Nottingham Forest
• Venue: The City Ground, Nottingham
• Kick-off: 8:00 PM UK time
• Aggregate: Forest lead 3-0

Tactics and team news: what each coach is trying to fix

Pereira has leaned into an energetic 4.45-3-1: full-backs Ola Aina and Neco Williams are encouraged to push high, while Ibrahim Sangaré and Elliot Anderson supply the muscle and legs in midfield. It’s front-foot football with a safety belt on—especially useful when you’re protecting a three-goal lead.

Forest’s form has been a bit of a split personality. Europe has been a bright spot, but domestically they’re still scrapping near the bottom (17th), and they followed that big night in Turkey with a 1-0 league loss to Liverpool on February 22. Pereira called it “only half-time,” which is manager-speak for “please don’t do anything silly.”

• Forest absences: Chris Wood, John Victor, Nicolo Savona, Willy Boly (all knee), plus Matz Sels (groin)
• Forest ineligible: Stefan Ortega and Luca Netz (not registered)

Over in the away dugout, Domenico Tedesco has admitted the first-leg defeat was deserved and pointed to a physical gap. Fenerbahçe’s usual idea is a possession-based 4.45-3, but this trip to England comes with a defensive crisis that could force uncomfortable choices—possibly even giving young Yiğit Efe Demir a major role. In midfield, N’Golo Kanté and Matteo Guendouzi are expected to try to slow Forest’s transitions, because Forest with space is exactly what Fener don’t need.

• Fenerbahçe injuries: Milan Škriniar, Edson Álvarez, Archie Brown
• New knocks (Feb 23): Çağlar Söyüncü and Jayden Oosterwolde went off injured
• Suspended: Fred (and Oosterwolde also listed via card accumulation)
• Ineligible: Mert Günok, Anthony Musaba

AI betting tips and stats for Nottingham vs Fenerbahce prediction

Now to the numbers that matter for bettors. The 1X2 odds lean Forest: Home win 1.4.45, Draw 4.45, Away win 5.5. On paper, the squad values back that up too—Forest at €591.4.450m versus Fenerbahçe at €235.50m. Still, confidence isn’t sky-high, because second legs can get weird when one team is chasing a miracle and the other is protecting a lead.

What our model expects the match to look like

• Possession: Nottingham 60% / Fenerbahçe 40%
• Shots: Nottingham 22 vs Fenerbahçe 6
• Shots on target: Nottingham 6 vs Fenerbahçe 2
• Corners: Total 9 (Nottingham 7, Fenerbahçe 2)
• Yellow cards: Nottingham 0, Fenerbahçe 4

That profile fits the tie. Forest can afford controlled pressure at home, while Fenerbahçe may end up making the kind of tactical fouls that stop counters but annoy referees (and bettors holding a “cards” ticket).

Main picks: 1X2, goals, and correct score

• AI 1X2 pick: Home win (1) at odds 1.4.45, confidence 3.7/10
• AI goals pick: Under 3.5 goals at odds 1.48, confidence 3.8/10
• AI correct score: 2-0
• Half-time score call: 1-0

Under 3.5 makes sense with Forest’s game state: they don’t need chaos, and Fenerbahçe arrive short at the back. Also, a recent reminder that big names don’t always guarantee big scorelines: Forest held Arsenal to a surprising 0-0 on January 17, in a match where Arsenal were priced around 1.4.455 to win. That’s useful head to head context for bettors who assume every “favourite” match turns into a goal fest.

So, the clean, beginner-friendly angle for betting tips is this: the Nottingham vs Fenerbahce prediction leans to Forest at home, but the more comfortable play is keeping goals in check. If Forest score first, expect them to manage the rest like a team protecting a 3-0 lead… because they are.