OFI Crete vs AEL Larissa Prediction

OFI Crete vs AEL Larissa prediction for Feb 28, 2026

The OFI Crete vs AEL Larissa prediction for 2026-02-28 (15:00 GMT) comes with that familiar late-season feeling: every point looks small on paper, then suddenly it’s massive. They meet at the Pankritio Stadium in Heraklion (26,240 seats), with OFI sitting 8th on 25 points and AEL 12th on 20 points as the regular season runs out of road.

Match context, tactics, and what to expect

OFI under Christos Kontis usually wants the ball and the width. The plan is simple: move play side to side, let the wingers stretch the pitch, and then let the forwards attack the box. It works often enough, but the defensive record still raises eyebrows: 35 goals conceded is not what you call “quiet afternoons for the goalkeeper.” The mood in Heraklion is cautiously positive, even after a 0–2 loss to Panathinaikos on February 22, because before that OFI put together a four-match unbeaten run in all competitions.

AEL Larissa, coached by Savvas Pantelidis since December 2025, has gone the other way: compact shape first, opportunities later. The 3-4-3 has been about discipline, a low block, and quick counters that try to turn one good run into one good chance. It’s not always pretty, but it has been effective enough to annoy big teams. In February, AEL earned 1–1 draws against PAOK and Panathinaikos, and PAOK were priced at 1.52 in that game—so yes, Larissa have been enjoying their “giant killer” phase.

Team news and key players

• OFI attacking leaders: Eddie Salcedo has 7 league goals, with Thiago Nuss contributing 5 goals and 4 assists. Taxiarchis Fountas remains the most valuable threat in the final third.
• OFI absences: Karachalios (hamstring), Neira (muscular), Shengelia (ankle), Koutsoupias (muscle) are expected issues to manage.
• AEL key men: Giannis Pasas leads with 4 goals, while Ľubomír Tupta and Jani Atanasov matter most in transition. January signing Yvann Maçon has strengthened right-back.
• AEL warnings: Emanuel Vignato is injured, while Facundo Pérez and Leandro Garate are one booking away from suspension.

For extra spice in the head to head, the most common score in Heraklion has been 0–0 (four times in the last eight), even though OFI won the earlier meeting this season 2.65 (November 2025). Add AEL’s pride as the only non-Athens/Thessaloniki club to win a Greek title (1988), and you can expect them to travel believing a point is there.

Betting tips, betting odds, and AI picks

Now to the part that makes fans pretend they are mathematicians: sports betting angles and betting odds. The 1X2 prices show OFI as a reasonable favorite: Home win 2.65, Draw 3.15, Away win 3.1. That aligns with squad value too (€14.68m vs €11.20m), though football has never cared much for accountants.

Our model’s read: control for OFI, but not a goal party

The AI expects OFI to have about 55% possession to AEL’s 45%, with shots projected at 10–11 and both teams landing 4 on target. That’s a big hint: chances may be shared, but not endless. Corners are set around 6 total (3.15), and cards lean slightly toward AEL (1 yellow for OFI, 2 for AEL), which fits a compact away side doing a bit more defending.

• Best tip: Under 3.5 goals @ 1.25 (confidence 4.0/10)
• 1X2 market prediction: 1X @ 1.4 (confidence 2.0/10)
• Projected final score: OFI 2.65 AEL
• Half-time call: OFI 1–0

The under 3.5 goals recommendation matches the numbers nicely. Even with a predicted 2.65, we still stay under the line, and the recent head to head trend in Heraklion has often been tight. AEL’s recent draws against strong teams also suggest they can keep games controlled, even when they don’t dominate the ball.

How to use these predictions in a smart way

If you want the safer route, under 3.5 goals at 1.25 is the “sleep better” option, even if the odds are short. If you want a more match-context approach, the 1X at 1.4 fits OFI’s home advantage and their ability to bounce back—remember their 0–1 away win at Levadiakos on 2026-02.3.1 when they were priced at 5.5. That kind of result suggests OFI can be efficient when needed.

Final thought for this OFI Crete vs AEL Larissa prediction: expect OFI to push early, AEL to resist and counter, and the game to stay within sensible scoring limits—unless someone scores a deflected goal and the match suddenly remembers it’s Greek football.