Olympiakos Piraeus vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction

Olympiakos vs Leverkusen prediction: first-leg edges and value

The Olympiakos Piraeus vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction for this UEFA Champions League knockout playoff first leg comes with a familiar theme: Piraeus intensity versus German structure. It kicks off at 20:00 GMT on 2026-02-18 at the Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium, where Olympiakos have made many good teams look uncomfortable.

On the bench, the stories are almost as important as the lineups. José Luis Mendilibar has kept Olympiakos’ high-energy pressing identity, while Leverkusen are still settling into life after the Xabi Alonso era. Kasper Hjulmand, appointed in September 2025 after a short and messy spell under Erik ten Hag, has been publicly nudging his side away from “champagne football” and toward something more pragmatic for nights like this.

Team news, absences, and tactical themes

Leverkusen travel with key absences, and that changes their feel. Mark Flekken remains out with a knee ligament tear, so Janis Blaswich is set to start in goal. Nathan Tella (foot) and Eliesse Ben Seghir (ankle) are also unavailable, while Ibrahim Maza has returned to training and should make the squad. For Olympiakos, Ayoub El Kaabi is a doubt with a muscle problem, Lorenzo Pirola is managing a hamstring/back issue, and Roman Yaremchuk needs a late fitness test.

• Olympiakos approach: expected 4-2-3-1 with pressing and fast breaks, often funneled through wide runners like Gelson Martins and Daniel Podence.
• Leverkusen approach: more controlled, more compact, and likely patient—especially with a first-leg away plan.
• Head to head angle: Olympiakos won 2-0 here on 2026-01-20 (goals from Costinha and Mehdi Taremi), so Leverkusen arrive with fresh reminders of the “fortress” factor.

Form lines up with that tension. Olympiakos finished 18th in the League Phase but have looked lively in big European moments (they also shocked Porto away at 5.59 odds, winning 0-1). Leverkusen finished 16th and have floated around the Bundesliga’s 4th–6th range, though they showed their ceiling by winning away at Manchester City at 9.5 odds (0-2). This is also their first knockout run since the coaching changes, and identity still matters.

Olympiakos Piraeus vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction and odds

Markets call this tight: home win 2.55, draw 3.35, away win 2.87. The squad-value gap is real—Olympiakos at €136.75m versus Leverkusen at €422.75m—but the stadium narrows that difference quickly.

NerdyTips betting tips: what the numbers suggest

Our models see Leverkusen as slightly more likely to avoid defeat than to dominate. That fits a first-leg script: manage emotions, limit transitions, and keep the tie alive.

• Best wager: X2 (Leverkusen win or draw) at 1.57 odds, confidence 8.5/10.
• 1X2 lean: “2” (Leverkusen win) with 7.2 trust, odds 2.87.
• Goals market: Under 3.5 goals at 1.36, confidence 7.3/10.

Stats projections reinforce the “tight margins” idea: possession 45%–55% (Olympiakos–Leverkusen), shots 12–11, on-target 3–4, corners 4–4 (8 total), and yellows 2–1. That reads like a tense tactical game rather than an open shootout—good news for under backers.

Correct score lean

The expected scoreline is 0-1, with a 0-0 half-time. In plain terms, the Olympiakos Piraeus vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction points to Leverkusen surviving the early wave, then stealing a key moment. It won’t erase the January head to head result, but it would be a very “European away leg” response.