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Olympiakos

€136.75m

18 Feb15:00
0 : 2

Leverkusen

€422.75m

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Olympiakos vs Leverkusen Prediction UEFA Champions League

Olympiakos vs Leverkusen prediction: first-leg edges and value

The Olympiakos Piraeus vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction for this UEFA Champions League knockout playoff first leg comes with a familiar theme: Piraeus intensity versus German structure. It kicks off at 20:00 GMT on 2026-02-18 at the Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium, where Olympiakos have made many good teams look uncomfortable.

On the bench, the stories are almost as important as the lineups. José Luis Mendilibar has kept Olympiakos’ high-energy pressing identity, while Leverkusen are still settling into life after the Xabi Alonso era. Kasper Hjulmand, appointed in September 2025 after a short and messy spell under Erik ten Hag, has been publicly nudging his side away from “champagne football” and toward something more pragmatic for nights like this.

Team news, absences, and tactical themes

Leverkusen travel with key absences, and that changes their feel. Mark Flekken remains out with a knee ligament tear, so Janis Blaswich is set to start in goal. Nathan Tella (foot) and Eliesse Ben Seghir (ankle) are also unavailable, while Ibrahim Maza has returned to training and should make the squad. For Olympiakos, Ayoub El Kaabi is a doubt with a muscle problem, Lorenzo Pirola is managing a hamstring/back issue, and Roman Yaremchuk needs a late fitness test.

  • Olympiakos approach: expected 4-2-3-1 with pressing and fast breaks, often funneled through wide runners like Gelson Martins and Daniel Podence.
  • Leverkusen approach: more controlled, more compact, and likely patient—especially with a first-leg away plan.
  • Head to head angle: Olympiakos won 2-0 here on 2026-01-20 (goals from Costinha and Mehdi Taremi), so Leverkusen arrive with fresh reminders of the “fortress” factor.

Form lines up with that tension. Olympiakos finished 18th in the League Phase but have looked lively in big European moments (they also shocked Porto away at 5.59 odds, winning 0-1). Leverkusen finished 16th and have floated around the Bundesliga’s 4th–6th range, though they showed their ceiling by winning away at Manchester City at 9.5 odds (0-2). This is also their first knockout run since the coaching changes, and identity still matters.

Olympiakos Piraeus vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction and odds

Markets call this tight: home win 2.42, draw 3.5, away win 3.05. The squad-value gap is real—Olympiakos at €1.63.75m versus Leverkusen at €422.425m—but the stadium narrows that difference quickly.

NerdyTips betting tips: what the numbers suggest

Our models see Leverkusen as slightly more likely to avoid defeat than to dominate. That fits a first-leg script: manage emotions, limit transitions, and keep the tie alive.

  • Best wager: X2 (Leverkusen win or draw) at 1.63 odds, confidence 8.5/10.
  • 1X2 lean: “2” (Leverkusen win) with 7.2 trust, odds 3.05.
  • Goals market: Under 3.5 goals at 1.36, confidence 7.3/10.

Stats projections reinforce the “tight margins” idea: possession 45%–55% (Olympiakos–Leverkusen), shots 12–11, on-target 3.5, corners 4–4 (8 total), and yellows 2–1. That reads like a tense tactical game rather than an open shootout—good news for under backers.

Correct score lean

The expected scoreline is 0-1, with a 0-0 half-time. In plain terms, the Olympiakos Piraeus vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction points to Leverkusen surviving the early wave, then stealing a key moment. It won’t erase the January head to head result, but it would be a very “European away leg” response.

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AI Predictions
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Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for Olympiakos vs Leverkusen

X2 -159

Leverkusen to win or draw with odds of -159
8/10

1x2 Tip

2 205

Leverkusen is expected to win with odds of 205
7/10

Total Goals

Under 3.5 -294

No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match
7/10

Both Teams To Score

No 116

At least one team is not expected to score
4/10

Bet Builder Tip

X2&U4.5 -111

Away win/draw and under 4.5 goals
6/10
Both Teams To Score

Correct Score

0:1

Stats Predictions

1.23
xG
1.52
45%
Ball Possession
55%
12
Total Shots
11
3
Shots on Goal
4
3
Shots Off Goal
4
4
Corners
4
2
Yellow Cards
1

Average / Match

1.46
Expected Goals
1.77
1.9
Total Goals
2.9
1.4
Goals Scored
1.9
0.5
Goals Against
1
55%
Possession
61%
15.4
Total Shots
12.4
5.3
Shots on Goal
4.8
5.4
Shots off Goal
4.6
14.8
Fouls
8.6
6.3
Corners
5.1
2.2
Offsides
1.4
2.22
Yellow Cards
1.67
428
Total Passes
685

Overview Last 10 Matches

6
Wins
6
7
Over 1.5 Goals
8
3
Over 2.5 Goals
6
0
Over 3.5 Goals
4
2
Both Teams Scored
4
0
Unexpected Wins
0
1
Unexpected Loses
0

Head to Head

Olympiakos Piraeus
1 - 1 - 1
Bayer Leverkusen
Olympiakos Piraeus Olympiakos 18-Feb-26
0:2
Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen
Olympiakos Piraeus Olympiakos 20-Jan-26
2:0
Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen

Profile time Recent Matches of Olympiakos

13 MayW Olympiakos Olympiakos 1 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos 0
10 MayD Olympiakos Olympiakos 1 PAOK PAOK 1
03 MayL PAOK PAOK 3 Olympiakos Olympiakos 1
19 AprW Panathinaikos Panathinaikos 0 Olympiakos Olympiakos 2
05 AprL Olympiakos Olympiakos 0 AEK A AEK A 1
22 MarD Olympiakos Olympiakos 0 AEL Larissa AEL Larissa 0
14 MarW OFI Crete OFI Crete 0 Olympiakos Olympiakos 3
08 MarD Olympiakos Olympiakos 0 PAOK PAOK 0
01 MarW Panserraikos Panserraikos 1 Olympiakos Olympiakos 2
24 FebD Leverkusen Leverkusen 0 Olympiakos Olympiakos 0

Profile time Recent Matches Of Leverkusen

16 MayDLeverkusen Leverkusen 1 Hamburger Hamburger 1
09 MayLVfB S VfB S 3 Leverkusen Leverkusen 1
02 MayWLeverkusen Leverkusen 4 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 1
25 AprW1. FC Koln 1. FC Koln 1 Leverkusen Leverkusen 2
22 AprLLeverkusen Leverkusen 0 Bayern M Bayern M 2
18 AprLLeverkusen Leverkusen 1 FC Augsburg FC Augsburg 2
11 AprWBorussia D Borussia D 0 Leverkusen Leverkusen 1
04 AprWLeverkusen Leverkusen 6 VfL W VfL W 3
21 MarDHeidenheim Heidenheim 3 Leverkusen Leverkusen 3
17 MarLArsenal Arsenal 2 Leverkusen Leverkusen 0

World - UEFA Champions League World - UEFA Champions League

Team M G P
1 ArsenalArsenal823-424
2 Bayern MünchenBayern822-821
3 LiverpoolLiverpool820-818
4 TottenhamTottenham817-717
5 BarcelonaBarcelona822-1416
6 ChelseaChelsea817-1016
7 Sporting CPSporting CP817-1116
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12 NewcastleNewcastle817-714
13 JuventusJuventus814-1013
14 Atletico MadridAtletico817-1513
15 AtalantaAtalanta810-1013
16 Bayer LeverkusenBayer813-1412
17 Borussia DortmundBorussia819-1711
18 Olympiakos PiraeusOlympiakos810-1411
19 Club Brugge KVClub Brugge KV815-1710
20 GalatasarayGalatasaray89-1110
21 MonacoMonaco88-1410
22 QarabagQarabag813-2110
23 Bodo/GlimtBodo/Glimt814-159
24 BenficaBenfica810-129
25 MarseilleMarseille811-149
26 PafosPafos88-119
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30 NapoliNapoli89-158
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35 VillarrealVillarreal85-181
36 Kairat AlmatyKairat Almaty87-221
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