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Olympiakos Piraeus vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction

Olympiakos

€136.75m

18 Feb15:00
0 : 2

Leverkusen

€422.75m

Preview

Olympiakos vs Leverkusen Prediction UEFA Champions League

Olympiakos vs Leverkusen prediction: first-leg edges and value

The Olympiakos Piraeus vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction for this UEFA Champions League knockout playoff first leg comes with a familiar theme: Piraeus intensity versus German structure. It kicks off at 20:00 GMT on 2026-02-18 at the Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium, where Olympiakos have made many good teams look uncomfortable.

On the bench, the stories are almost as important as the lineups. José Luis Mendilibar has kept Olympiakos’ high-energy pressing identity, while Leverkusen are still settling into life after the Xabi Alonso era. Kasper Hjulmand, appointed in September 2025 after a short and messy spell under Erik ten Hag, has been publicly nudging his side away from “champagne football” and toward something more pragmatic for nights like this.

Team news, absences, and tactical themes

Leverkusen travel with key absences, and that changes their feel. Mark Flekken remains out with a knee ligament tear, so Janis Blaswich is set to start in goal. Nathan Tella (foot) and Eliesse Ben Seghir (ankle) are also unavailable, while Ibrahim Maza has returned to training and should make the squad. For Olympiakos, Ayoub El Kaabi is a doubt with a muscle problem, Lorenzo Pirola is managing a hamstring/back issue, and Roman Yaremchuk needs a late fitness test.

  • Olympiakos approach: expected 4-2-3-1 with pressing and fast breaks, often funneled through wide runners like Gelson Martins and Daniel Podence.
  • Leverkusen approach: more controlled, more compact, and likely patient—especially with a first-leg away plan.
  • Head to head angle: Olympiakos won 2-0 here on 2026-01-20 (goals from Costinha and Mehdi Taremi), so Leverkusen arrive with fresh reminders of the “fortress” factor.

Form lines up with that tension. Olympiakos finished 18th in the League Phase but have looked lively in big European moments (they also shocked Porto away at 5.59 odds, winning 0-1). Leverkusen finished 16th and have floated around the Bundesliga’s 4th–6th range, though they showed their ceiling by winning away at Manchester City at 9.5 odds (0-2). This is also their first knockout run since the coaching changes, and identity still matters.

Olympiakos Piraeus vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction and odds

Markets call this tight: home win 2.42, draw 3.5, away win 3.05. The squad-value gap is real—Olympiakos at €1.63.75m versus Leverkusen at €422.425m—but the stadium narrows that difference quickly.

NerdyTips betting tips: what the numbers suggest

Our models see Leverkusen as slightly more likely to avoid defeat than to dominate. That fits a first-leg script: manage emotions, limit transitions, and keep the tie alive.

  • Best wager: X2 (Leverkusen win or draw) at 1.63 odds, confidence 8.5/10.
  • 1X2 lean: “2” (Leverkusen win) with 7.2 trust, odds 3.05.
  • Goals market: Under 3.5 goals at 1.36, confidence 7.3/10.

Stats projections reinforce the “tight margins” idea: possession 45%–55% (Olympiakos–Leverkusen), shots 12–11, on-target 3.5, corners 4–4 (8 total), and yellows 2–1. That reads like a tense tactical game rather than an open shootout—good news for under backers.

Correct score lean

The expected scoreline is 0-1, with a 0-0 half-time. In plain terms, the Olympiakos Piraeus vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction points to Leverkusen surviving the early wave, then stealing a key moment. It won’t erase the January head to head result, but it would be a very “European away leg” response.

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AI Predictions
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Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for Olympiakos vs Leverkusen

X2 -159

Leverkusen to win or draw with odds of -159
8/10

1x2 Tip

2 205

Leverkusen is expected to win with odds of 205
7/10

Total Goals

Under 3.5 -294

No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match
7/10

Both Teams To Score

No 116

At least one team is not expected to score
4/10

Bet Builder Tip

X2&U4.5 -111

Away win/draw and under 4.5 goals
6/10
Both Teams To Score

Correct Score

0:1

Stats Predictions

1.23
xG
1.52
45%
Ball Possession
55%
12
Total Shots
11
3
Shots on Goal
4
3
Shots Off Goal
4
4
Corners
4
2
Yellow Cards
1

Average / Match

1.46
Expected Goals
1.77
1.9
Total Goals
2.9
1.4
Goals Scored
1.9
0.5
Goals Against
1
55%
Possession
61%
15.4
Total Shots
12.4
5.3
Shots on Goal
4.8
5.4
Shots off Goal
4.6
14.8
Fouls
8.6
6.3
Corners
5.1
2.2
Offsides
1.4
2.22
Yellow Cards
1.67
428
Total Passes
685

Overview Last 10 Matches

6
Wins
6
7
Over 1.5 Goals
8
3
Over 2.5 Goals
6
0
Over 3.5 Goals
4
2
Both Teams Scored
4
0
Unexpected Wins
0
1
Unexpected Loses
0

Head to Head

Olympiakos Piraeus
1 - 0 - 0
Bayer Leverkusen
Olympiakos Piraeus Olympiakos 20-Jan-26
2:0
Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen

Profile time Recent Matches of Olympiakos

22 MarD Olympiakos Olympiakos 0 AEL Larissa AEL Larissa 0
14 MarW OFI Crete OFI Crete 0 Olympiakos Olympiakos 3
08 MarD Olympiakos Olympiakos 0 PAOK PAOK 0
01 MarW Panserraikos Panserraikos 1 Olympiakos Olympiakos 2
24 FebD Leverkusen Leverkusen 0 Olympiakos Olympiakos 0
21 FebW Olympiakos Olympiakos 2 Panetolikos Panetolikos 0
18 FebL Olympiakos Olympiakos 0 Leverkusen Leverkusen 2
14 FebD Levadiakos Levadiakos 0 Olympiakos Olympiakos 0
08 FebL Olympiakos Olympiakos 0 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos 1
04 FebW Asteras T Asteras T 0 Olympiakos Olympiakos 3

Profile time Recent Matches of Leverkusen

21 MarDHeidenheim Heidenheim 3 Leverkusen Leverkusen 3
17 MarLArsenal Arsenal 2 Leverkusen Leverkusen 0
14 MarDLeverkusen Leverkusen 1 Bayern Munich Bayern Munich 1
11 MarDLeverkusen Leverkusen 1 Arsenal Arsenal 1
07 MarDFreiburg Freiburg 3 Leverkusen Leverkusen 3
04 MarWHamburger Hamburger 0 Leverkusen Leverkusen 1
28 FebDLeverkusen Leverkusen 1 Mainz Mainz 1
24 FebDLeverkusen Leverkusen 0 Olympiakos Olympiakos 0
21 FebLUnion Berlin Union Berlin 1 Leverkusen Leverkusen 0
18 FebWOlympiakos Olympiakos 0 Leverkusen Leverkusen 2

World - UEFA Champions League World - UEFA Champions League

Team Matches Goals Points
1 Arsenal Arsenal8
23-4
24
2 Bayern München Bayern8
22-8
21
3 Liverpool Liverpool8
20-8
18
4 Tottenham Tottenham8
17-7
17
5 Barcelona Barcelona8
22-14
16
6 Chelsea Chelsea8
17-10
16
7 Sporting CP Sporting CP8
17-11
16
8 Manchester City Manchester8
15-9
16
9 Real Madrid Real Madrid8
21-12
15
10 Inter Inter8
15-7
15
11 Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint8
21-11
14
12 Newcastle Newcastle8
17-7
14
13 Juventus Juventus8
14-10
13
14 Atletico Madrid Atletico8
17-15
13
15 Atalanta Atalanta8
10-10
13
16 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer8
13-14
12
17 Borussia Dortmund Borussia8
19-17
11
18 Olympiakos Piraeus Olympiakos8
10-14
11
19 Club Brugge KV Club Brugge KV8
15-17
10
20 Galatasaray Galatasaray8
9-11
10
21 Monaco Monaco8
8-14
10
22 Qarabag Qarabag8
13-21
10
23 Bodo/Glimt Bodo/Glimt8
14-15
9
24 Benfica Benfica8
10-12
9
25 Marseille Marseille8
11-14
9
26 Pafos Pafos8
8-11
9
27 Union St. Gilloise Union St.8
8-17
9
28 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven8
16-16
8
29 Athletic Club Athletic Club8
9-14
8
30 Napoli Napoli8
9-15
8
31 FC Copenhagen FC Copenhagen8
12-21
8
32 Ajax Ajax8
8-21
6
33 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht8
10-21
4
34 Slavia Praha Slavia Praha8
5-19
3
35 Villarreal Villarreal8
5-18
1
36 Kairat Almaty Kairat Almaty8
7-22
1
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