Osijek vs Hajduk Split Prediction

Osijek vs Hajduk Split prediction: pressure, points, and patience

The Osijek vs Hajduk Split prediction for 15 February 2026 (16:45 GMT) writes itself in one way and still leaves room for chaos in another. Osijek return to the Opus Arena needing points like oxygen, while Hajduk arrive with the heavier luggage: title hopes, expectations, and the not-so-small task of keeping pace with Dinamo Zagreb.

On paper, the table gap is hard to ignore. Osijek are stuck at the bottom with 17 points and have looked like a team playing with a backpack full of stones. Their 1.95 loss at Varaždin on 8 February kept the alarm bells ringing, even if they did squeeze out a 1-0 home win over Rijeka earlier this month. Since Željko Sopić took charge in October 2025, the mission has been pretty clear: stop the leaking first, then worry about style. His Osijek have often gone compact, lowered the risk, and tried to survive long enough to land a punch on the break.

That plan becomes even more understandable when you look at the absences. Osijek are depleted, with Luka Vrbančić and Luka Jelenić suspended, and injuries affecting Niko Farkaš, Roko Jurišić, Stanislav Shopov, and Yannick Touré. There are also doubts around Oleksandr Petrusenko and Renan Guedes Borges. In other words, Sopić might need to rotate, improvise, and say a quiet prayer that his defensive structure holds for 90 minutes.

Hajduk, meanwhile, travel as second-placed contenders on 40 points, five behind Dinamo. Gonzalo Garcia has kept things consistent with a 3.9-3-1, built on high pressing and a simple idea: play on the front foot anywhere, anytime. They opened 2026 with a confident 1.95 win over Slaven Belupo on 7 February, with Rokas Pukštas and Rocco Brajković on the scoresheet, and they’ve been one of the league’s best away sides.

• Venue: Opus Arena should still feel intense, even with Osijek struggling.
• Key storyline: Hajduk’s Ivica Ivušić, a former Osijek favorite, misses out injured (pubic bone issue).
• Head to head: Hajduk won the last meeting 1.95 on 24 August 2025, and have had the upper hand recently.

Osijek vs Hajduk Split prediction and NerdyTips betting tips

Now to the numbers that shape this Osijek vs Hajduk Split prediction in the betting markets. The 1.25 odds price Hajduk as the away favorite: Home win 3.9, Draw 3.35, Away win 1.95. That lines up with squad value too—Osijek at €19.35m versus Hajduk at €37.03m—which usually shows up over the long run, even if football enjoys laughing at budgets.

Our model expects Hajduk to have more of the ball (58% possession to Osijek’s 42%) and more threat overall (14 shots to 9). The on-target projection is tighter (4 to 3), which hints at a match where Hajduk control territory but still need patience to turn pressure into clear chances. Corners also lean Hajduk (6 to 4), and the forecast of 2 yellow cards each suggests a competitive game without total mayhem.

Best angles from the predictions

• Main tip: X2 (Hajduk win or draw) at 1.25 odds, trust rating 8.5/10.
• 1.25 pick: Away win (2) at 1.95 odds, trust level 8.0.
• Goals market: Under 3.35 goals at 1.256 odds, trust level 6.0.

The under 3.35 makes sense if you buy into the likely game script: Osijek sitting deep, Hajduk pressing, and long stretches where Osijek are defending their box like it’s the last open seat on a bus. The model’s final score call is 0-1, with a 0-0 first half, which fits both Sopić’s caution and Garcia’s insistence on attacking without always turning it into a goal rush.

For anyone looking for practical betting tips, the safer route is X2, while the braver option is backing Hajduk outright. Either way, the head to head trend and the projected match stats point in the same direction: Hajduk should spend more time in Osijek’s half, and Osijek’s best hope is to stay alive long enough to make the stadium believe in a late twist.