Paks vs Ferencvaros Prediction

Paks vs Ferencvaros prediction for NB I Sunday thriller

The Paks vs Ferencvaros prediction story writes itself: it’s February 1, 2026 (14:15 GMT), and the top end of the NB I table is squeezed so tight you could barely fit a match ball in it. Paks are 2nd on 36 points, Ferencváros are 3rd on 34, and this feels like one of those “six-pointer” afternoons where every tackle sounds louder.

Context, venue, and why this one matters

Paks welcome Fradi to Fehérvári úti Stadion (about 6,500 seats), and the small ground usually makes big games feel even bigger. With Győr setting the pace, both sides know that a slip here can turn a title chase into a “nice effort, see you next year” story.

• Date & time: 2026-02-01, 14:15 GMT (16:15 local)
• 1x2 betting odds: Home 3.1, Draw 3.65, Away 2.25
• Table pressure: Paks above Ferencváros by two points

Team form and tactical angles (simple, but important)

Paks come in feeling good after a 2-1 win over Puskás Akadémia on January 24, and they’ve been tough at home. György Bognár’s approach is rarely shy: an aggressive, direct style and a physical two-striker look that can make NB I defenses feel like they forgot their lunch money. Daniel Böde is still the reference point up top, with József Windecker and Attila Osváth giving Paks energy and structure in key moments.

Ferencváros, meanwhile, are dealing with the “European schedule tax.” They lost 1-3 to Győr on January 25, then took a heavy 4-0 defeat against Nottingham Forest in the Europa League on January 29. Robbie Keane has to rotate wisely, because tired legs don’t track runners well—especially in a noisy, tight stadium. Injuries to Stefan Gartenmann and Habib Maiga don’t help, and the squad is still adapting after Barnabás Varga’s move to AEK Athens and Alex Tóth’s departure to Bournemouth. Kristoffer Zachariassen and Bamidele Yusuf look like the main hopes to keep the attack sharp.

Head to head notes and the “fatigue factor”

The head to head history leans Ferencváros overall (more wins across the years), but recent meetings have been much closer and sometimes spicy. On 2025-05-10, Paks scored 2 and Ferencváros scored 3. Then on 2025-05-14, Paks surprised many by taking a 1-1 draw away when the win price was a chunky 5.0. Paks also have a habit of bothering Fradi when European football clogs the calendar—football’s way of reminding you that recovery days are, in fact, real.

AI picks, betting tips, and value angles explained

Now to the numbers side of this Paks vs Ferencvaros prediction, where sports betting is less about vibes and more about connecting odds with match patterns. The market gives Ferencváros the edge (2.25 away win), but Paks aren’t priced like pushovers (3.1), especially at home.

Main betting recommendation: Under 3.5 goals

Our AI’s most valuable play is under 3.5 goals at 1.58, with a trust score of 3.7/10. That trust isn’t sky-high, but the logic is clear: in a tight table game, both coaches have reasons to avoid chaos—Bognár may press Fradi’s fatigue, while Keane likely prioritizes defensive discipline after recent conceding issues.

• Best value bet: Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.58)
• AI trust score: 3.7/10
• AI predicted final score: 0:1
• Half-time score prediction: 0:0

1x2 market: safer route is X2

For the 1x2 prediction, the AI leans to X2 (Ferencváros or Draw) at 1.4, confidence 2.0. That fits the squad value gap (€8.23m vs €41.25m) and Fradi’s general ability to grind points even on imperfect days—though fatigue makes it less straightforward than the away odds suggest.

Match stats forecast (and what it means for bets)

The model expects Ferencváros to have more of the ball (44% vs 56%), but shots are forecast equal (12 each). Interestingly, Paks are projected for more on-target efforts (5 vs 3), which hints at a game where Fradi control territory, while Paks create the cleaner looks. Corners are set at 5-5 (10 total), and cards are modest (2 for Paks, 1 for Ferencváros), pointing toward a competitive but not chaotic afternoon.

Putting it together: if you’re shopping betting tips, the betting odds say “away edge,” but the game script says “tight.” That’s why under 3.5 goals looks like the sensible, people-friendly pick—no need to root for a goal festival while two tired teams negotiate a title race.