Match Prediction
Match Prediction
Brazil
Preview
As the Serie D season unfolds, all eyes turn to the Estádio Municipal Pedro Alelaf for a compelling fixture. This Parnahyba vs Sampaio Correa prediction dives into a match that carries significant weight for both clubs' promotion dreams. On one side, we have a Parnahyba side that has turned their home ground into a fortress. On the other, a Sampaio Correa team with higher league standing but some fresh dents in their armour. The stage is set for a cagey encounter on July 20, 2025.
Looking at the Group A2 table, Sampaio Correa sits in a healthier 3rd position with 19 points. Their journey has been steady, built on a foundation of disciplined play. Parnahyba, meanwhile, is in 6th place with 9 points, knowing that a victory here is crucial to keep pace. While their overall campaign has been mixed, their recent form, particularly at home, has been commendable. They are reportedly unbeaten in their last five matches, a run fuelled by strong performances in front of their own fans, where they have scored in their last four games.
The head to head record gives a slight edge to the visitors. Sampaio Correa secured a tight 1-0 victory when the teams met earlier this season on April 26. This history, combined with Sampaio's tactical organisation under coach Gerson Luiz Gusmão, suggests they know how to manage these high-stakes games.
This is where the plot thickens for Sampaio Correa. They travel to Parnaíba without two key starters. Midfielder Alan Stence is out on suspension, and defender Yan Cristian is sidelined with a concussion. To make matters worse, these two were responsible for both goals in their recent win over Tocantinópolis. Their absence leaves a significant void in both defence and attack.
Parnahyba, coached by Gilberto Carlos Nascimento, will look to exploit this. With creative midfielder Joaozinho pulling the strings and top scorer Bismarck Vinicius Freire do Nascimento (4 goals) leading the line, they have the tools to trouble a weakened Sampaio defence. Parnahyba’s resilience at home is their biggest asset, but they face a Sampaio side that has kept three clean sheets in their last five outings.
The betting market reflects the uncertain nature of this match. The odds are incredibly tight: a home win for Parnahyba is at 2.955, a draw at 3.00, and an away win for Sampaio Correa at 2.33.0. This tells us the bookmakers see it as anyone's game, which aligns with our analysis of Parnahyba's home form versus Sampaio's league pedigree being offset by injuries.
Given the circumstances, our AI's primary recommendation focuses on the goal count. The best tip for this Parnahyba vs Sampaio Correa match is Under 2.3 goals.
With odds of 1.48 and a trust rating of 4.5/10, this feels like the most logical play. It respects Sampaio's defensive strength while acknowledging their weakened attack.
For those looking for a match-winner, our AI model cautiously leans towards the visitors. The algorithm generated an expected final score of 0:1, favouring Sampaio Correa. It even anticipates a 0:1 scoreline at half-time. However, this prediction comes with a very low trust rating of just 1.8/10. It suggests that if a goal is to be scored, the team with the superior squad value (€1.05m for Sampaio) and tactical discipline might just find a way to grind out a narrow win. But given their missing players and Parnahyba's home record, this is a speculative bet at best. The Under 2.3 goals market remains the most sensible path for this intriguing Serie D contest.
Read More
Sampaio C no motivation!
U2.5 -208
No more than 2 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -2082 195
Sampaio Correa is expected to win with odds of 195Under 2.5 -208
No more than 2 goals will be scored in the matchNo -152
At least one team is not expected to scoreX2&U3.5 -114
Away win/draw and under 3.5 goals
0:1
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0
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0
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1
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 Sampaio C |
26-Apr-25
1:0
| Parnahyba  |
Recent Matches of Parnahyba| 26 Jan | L |
Piaui.
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1:0
| Parnahyba.
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Recent Matches of Sampaio C
| 28 Jan |  Tuntum. |
- |
Sampaio C. |
Brazil - Serie D| Team | Matches | Goals | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Altos | 14 | 22-14 | 26 |
| 2 |
Imperatriz | 14 | 17-15 | 24 |
| 3 |
Sampaio Correa | 14 | 17-11 | 21 |
| 4 |
Maranhão | 14 | 18-12 | 19 |
| 5 |
Iguatu | 14 | 15-15 | 18 |
| 6 |
Tocantinópoli | 14 | 11-17 | 15 |
| 7 |
Parnahyba | 14 | 16-22 | 14 |
| 8 |
Maracanã | 14 | 12-22 | 9 |
