Match Prediction
Match Prediction
Uruguay
Penarol
€26.58m
Cerro
€5.70m
Preview
The Penarol vs Cerro prediction is the talk of the town as anticipation builds for this Primera Division - Apertura encounter, set for 2025-06-28 at 19:00 GMT. The stage is Estadio Campeón del Siglo, where the air will be thick with expectation and the whistle in the hands of Uruguay’s own Andres Matonte. With Penarol’s home win odds at a commanding 1.25, a draw at 5.0, and Cerro’s chances priced at a distant 11.75, the betting odds paint a clear picture—but as any seasoned fan knows, football loves a surprise.
It’s hard to ignore the gulf in resources and ambition between these two sides. Penarol, with a squad valued at a hefty €26.58m, are not just favorites—they’re expected to dominate. Cerro, by comparison, arrive with a squad worth €5.70m, making them the clear underdogs. This disparity is reflected in the Penarol vs Cerro prediction and the betting odds, but football’s beauty lies in its unpredictability.
While Penarol are the favorites, both teams have recently shown they can defy the script. Penarol’s gritty 1-0 away win over Flamengo on 2024-09-19, at long odds of 7.4, proved they can deliver when underestimated. Cerro, meanwhile, earned a hard-fought 0-0 away draw with Liverpool Montevideo on 2025-05-25, holding out against odds of 5.0 for a win. These results remind us that upsets are possible—but also why Penarol’s consistency keeps them at the top of every Penarol vs Cerro prediction.
Looking at the league-wide stats gives us more context for our Penarol vs Cerro prediction:
The AI’s predictions align with the stats: the best tip is a home win (1) with an 8.0/10 confidence rating and odds of 1.25. The 1x2 prediction also strongly favors Penarol. For total goals, the under 3.5 pick (confidence 3.0, odds 1.3) looks smart, with a projected final score of 2:0 and a first-half scoreline of 1:0. Recent defensive records from both teams—Penarol’s clean sheets and Cerro’s ability to grind out low-scoring draws—support this cautious approach.
While Cerro have shown they can frustrate bigger teams and even snatch a surprise result, the weight of evidence—odds, squad value, head to head history, and league stats—leans heavily toward Penarol. For those looking for the most intelligent bets, Penarol to win and under 3.5 total goals stand out as the top picks for this Primera Division - Apertura encounter.
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Derby match
1 -400
Penarol is expected to win with odds of -4001 -400
Penarol is expected to win with odds of -400Under 3.5 -333
No more than 3 goals will be scored in the matchNo -233
At least one team is not expected to score1X&U3.5 -213
Home win/draw and under 3.5 goals
2:0
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|
15
-
4
-
4
|
|
 Penarol |
27-Apr-25
3:1
| Cerro  |
| Cerro |
22-Sep-24
0:5
| Penarol |
| Penarol |
09-Mar-24
3:0
| Cerro |
| Cerro |
19-Aug-23
1:1
| Penarol |
| Penarol |
04-Feb-23
2:0
| Cerro |
| Cerro |
16-Jan-21
1:1
| Penarol |
| Penarol |
15-Feb-20
2:1
| Cerro |
| Cerro |
06-Nov-19
1:3
| Penarol |
| Penarol |
20-Apr-19
1:1
| Cerro |
| Penarol |
02-Sep-18
3:2
| Cerro |
Recent Matches of Penarol| 13 Jan | D |
Penarol.
|
0:0
| Central Esp..
|
Recent Matches of Cerro
| 15 Jan |  Racing M. |
- |
CA Cerro. |
Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura| Team | Matches | Goals | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Penarol | 7 | 15-5 | 16 |
| 2 |
Defensor Sport | 7 | 12-10 | 14 |
| 3 |
Wanderers | 7 | 6-5 | 12 |
| 4 |
Plaza Colonia | 7 | 6-7 | 8 |
| 5 |
Liverpool Mont | 7 | 10-12 | 8 |
| 6 |
Cerro | 7 | 7-9 | 8 |
| 7 |
CA River Plate | 6 | 4-8 | 4 |
| 8 |
Cerro Largo | 6 | 5-9 | 2 |
