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Match Prediction

Penedense vs ASA Prediction

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13 Jul15:00
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Penedense vs ASA Prediction Serie D

Penedense vs ASA Prediction: Can the Underdogs Defy the Odds Again?

The Penedense vs ASA prediction for this Serie D encounter paints a clear picture on paper: ASA are heavy favorites, with bookmakers offering a mere 1.33 for an away win, while Penedense sit at a staggering 8.5. Our AI model agrees, projecting a 0-2 victory for ASA, with a 0-1 halftime lead. But football—especially in Serie D—rarely follows the script so neatly. Let’s peel back the layers of this intriguing matchup.

The Favorite vs The Underdog: A Tale of Two Realities

ASA’s dominance in the betting odds suggests a straightforward away win, but Serie D’s notorious unpredictability throws a wrench into that logic. Consider this:

  • Away wins are rare in Serie D—just 18.7% of matches end with three points for the visitors.
  • Draws are rampant, making up 43.7% of results. Penedense’s gritty 0-0 draw against Jequie on June 8th, despite being 8.5 underdogs, proves they can stifle superior teams.
  • The last head-to-head in January 2025 ended 0-0, back when the odds were nearly even (Penedense 2.65, ASA 2.6). Why such a drastic shift now?

Why Our AI’s Confidence Wavers

Our model’s Penedense vs ASA prediction leans toward ASA, but its confidence is shockingly low—just 3.1/10 for the away win and 3.2 for the 1x2 market. This uncertainty hints at hidden complexities:

  1. Defensive resilience: Penedense’s recent clean sheets suggest they’re no pushovers at home.
  2. Low-scoring trends: The Under 2.5 goals market (1.67 odds) aligns with both teams’ recent goalless history.
  3. Serie D’s draw curse: With nearly half the matches ending level, a repeat of January’s stalemate isn’t far-fetched.

Tactical Nuances: Where the Game Could Be Won (or Drawn)

ASA’s quality should, in theory, overpower Penedense. But football isn’t played on spreadsheets. Penedense’s compact defending and Serie D’s unforgiving nature could turn this into a war of attrition. Here’s what to watch for:

  • Set-piece battles: If Penedense can exploit dead-ball situations, they might sneak a goal against the run of play.
  • Midfield control: ASA’s ability to break down deep blocks will determine if they justify their sports betting favoritism.
  • Mental fatigue: Long away trips in Serie D often sap energy—will ASA’s sharper squad depth matter?

Final Thoughts: Trust the Odds or Trust the Trends?

The Penedense vs ASA prediction is a classic clash of perception vs reality. While ASA’s talent and odds suggest dominance, Serie D’s love for draws and Penedense’s stubbornness create a compelling counter-narrative. Our AI’s low confidence in a high-scoring affair—coupled with the 0-2 scoreline prediction—hints at a tense, tactical battle rather than a rout.

For sports betting enthusiasts, the value might lie in Under 2.5 goals or even a cheeky punt on Penedense +1.5. After all, in Serie D, the underdog often bites back when least expected.

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AI Predictions
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Warning

ASA has an unusually high recent form

Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for Penedense vs ASA

2 -303

ASA is expected to win with odds of -303
3/10

1x2 Tip

2 -303

ASA is expected to win with odds of -303
3/10

Total Goals

Under 2.5 -154

No more than 2 goals will be scored in the match
1/10

Both Teams To Score

No -222

At least one team is not expected to score
3/10

Bet Builder Tip

X2&U3.5 -244

Away win/draw and under 3.5 goals
3/10
Both Teams To Score

Correct Score

0:2

Average / Match

1.8
Total Goals
2.8
0.3
Goals Scored
2
1.5
Goals Against
0.8

Overview Last 10 Matches

0
Wins
6
4
Over 1.5 Goals
6
2
Over 2.5 Goals
6
2
Over 3.5 Goals
5
2
Both Teams Scored
4
0
Unexpected Wins
0
0
Unexpected Loses
0

Head to Head

Penedense
0 - 3 - 2
ASA
ASA ASA 03-May-25
1:0
Penedense Penedense
Penedense Penedense 22-Jan-25
0:0
ASA ASA
ASA ASA 19-Jan-25
1:1
Penedense Penedense
ASA ASA 21-Feb-24
0:0
Penedense Penedense
Penedense Penedense 18-Feb-24
1:2
ASA ASA

Profile time Recent Matches of Penedense

29 Jan CSE CSE.
-
Penedense. Penedense
25 JanD Coruripe Coruripe.
1:1
Penedense. Penedense

Profile time Recent Matches of ASA

31 JanCRB CRB.
-
ASA.ASA
25 JanWCSE CSE.
1:2
ASA.ASA

Brazil - Serie D Brazil - Serie D

Team Matches Goals Points
1 ASA ASA14
27-8
31
2 Lagarto Lagarto14
20-16
23
3 Sergipe Sergipe14
16-10
22
4 Juazeirense Juazeirense14
12-15
22
5 União Carmolandense União14
14-16
19
6 Jequié Jequié14
15-16
16
7 Barcelona BA Barcelona BA14
9-20
11
8 Penedense Penedense14
5-17
8
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