Pescara vs Mantova Prediction

Pescara vs Mantova prediction: Insigne returns at 16:15 GMT

The Pescara vs Mantova prediction for Saturday, 2026-01-31 (kick-off 16:15 GMT) is not just another Serie B game. It started as a simple relegation fight, then turned into a full stadium story at the Stadio Adriatico thanks to a famous homecoming, fresh winter signings, and two teams who badly need points more than they need pretty football.

Why this match suddenly feels bigger than the table

The main headline is the return of Lorenzo Insigne. After his Toronto FC deal ended, the 34-year-old signed for Pescara on January 28, 2026, coming back to the club where he helped create the 2012 promotion memories alongside Marco Verratti and Ciro Immobile. And Verratti is not only watching from afar anymore: he is now a 50% shareholder, a detail that reportedly helped convince Insigne to pick Pescara even with other options on the table. If you’re looking for “new manager bounce” energy, this is the Serie B version of it—only with more nostalgia.

Team news, injuries, and winter moves

Pescara have been busy in the market. Alongside Insigne, they brought back Gaston Brugman in midfield and added defender Davide Bettella. The bad news is the injury list still matters: Filippo Pellacani remains out with an ACL injury, Andrea Oliveri has a muscle issue, while Giacomo Olzer and D. Merola are doubtful with thigh problems. That means the new faces may have to carry a heavy load right away.

Mantova arrive with their own concerns. New loan signing Côme Bianay Balcot is a major doubt after leaving the pitch in tears against Venezia, and Nicolò Radaelli is also out with a thigh injury. On the brighter side, Mantova reinforced with Rachid Kouda (loan from Parma) and Tiago Gonçalves, and both are expected to feature.

Tactics: playmaking vs pressing

Pescara coach Giorgio Gorgone has leaned on 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-1-2, and Insigne’s arrival could push the shape toward giving him freedom as a central creator or a drifting left attacker. Mantova, under Francesco Modesto (appointed in December 2025), tend to play an aggressive 3-4-2-1 with high pressing, inspired by the “Gasperini school” of intensity. In simple terms: Pescara want touches and combinations; Mantova want to make those touches uncomfortable.

• Standings pressure: Pescara are 20th (14 pts) and Mantova 19th (19 pts).
• Recent mood: Pescara lost to Monza and Modena; Mantova come off a painful 5-2 loss to Venezia.
• Head to head: Mantova won the reverse fixture 2-1, but haven’t won at the Adriatico in their last three visits.

Betting tips and AI numbers for Pescara vs Mantova prediction

Now to the sports betting angle. The 1X2 betting odds are tight: Home win 2.5, Draw 3.4, Away win 2.95. That price range reflects the situation: Pescara have the emotional lift (and a sell-out vibe), while Mantova are slightly better resourced on paper (€21.73m vs €16.92m squad value) and may be more clinical.

Main bet: Under 3.5 goals looks the safest

The best tip is Under 3.5 goals at 1.41. Both AI and statistical analysis point the same way, with confidence/trust around 4.4/10 and 4.5/10. It’s not a “lock,” but in Serie B relegation games, goals often cost extra—like luggage fees.

• Best under/over bet: Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.41)
• Expected final score: 1-2
• Expected half-time score: 1-1

1X2 lean: Mantova to edge it, but expect stress

For the straight result, AI leans to Away win (prediction “2”) at odds 2.95, but with low confidence (2.7/10). That matches the match story: Pescara are likely to compete hard, yet Mantova’s structure under Modesto can punish mistakes late on. Also, both teams have shown they can surprise away from home: Pescara drew 2-2 at Juve Stabia despite long odds, and Mantova pulled a 2-2 at Palermo as big underdogs too. So yes, this can swing.

Stats that support the “tight game” idea

• Possession: Pescara 49% vs Mantova 51%
• Shots: Pescara 19 (6 on target) vs Mantova 12 (4 on target)
• Corners: 7 vs 5 (total 12)
• Cards: Pescara 1 yellow, Mantova 2 yellows

In short, our Pescara vs Mantova prediction for sports betting is to start with Under 3.5 goals for safety, and consider Mantova on the 1X2 if you can accept a bumpy ride. Insigne may add magic, but points at the bottom of Serie B are rarely handed out like souvenirs.