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Philadelp

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2 May19:30
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Philadelp vs Nashville SC Prediction Major League Soccer

Philadelphia Union vs Nashville SC prediction: form, news, odds

The Philadelphia Union vs Nashville SC prediction for Sunday, 2026-05-03 (kickoff 00:30 GMT) comes with a very clear storyline: a struggling Union side trying to grind out answers at Subaru Park, against a Nashville team that currently looks like it has solutions for everything. For bettors, this is one of those games where team news, rest, and game state may matter as much as raw quality.

Match setting, momentum, and what each team wants

Nashville arrive in first place with 22 points and a four-game league winning run, while Philadelphia sit down in 15th with only 5 points from nine matches (1 win, 2 draws, 6 losses). That gap isn’t just numbers; it shows in confidence. Nashville have been scoring freely, while the Union often look like they need three good moments to create one great chance.

  • Venue: Subaru Park, Chester, Pennsylvania
  • Table context: Nashville 1st, Philadelphia 15th
  • Recent vibe: Nashville rolling; Union searching

Team news that can bend the tactics

Philadelphia’s problems are not only tactical. They are also medical. Jim Curtin is missing attackers and a key defender, which limits both pressing rotations and ball progression. Nashville’s headline is up top: Sam Surridge (Golden Boot pace) is week-to-week, and his status changes how direct Nashville can be.

  • Philadelphia absences: Augustín Anello (hamstring) and Quinn Sullivan (muscle) out until mid-May; Japhet Sery Larsen suspended; Ian Glavinovich out long-term; Eddy Davis III a doubt.
  • Nashville absences: Chris Applewhite and Thomas Williams out; Sam Surridge questionable (back/hamstring).

How the game may look on the pitch

Expect Philly to lean into what they usually do best at home: pressure, duels, and trying to turn midfield chaos into quick attacks. The issue is finishing. Nashville, meanwhile, can play through Hany Mukhtar and use runners around him; if Surridge can’t go, Warren Madrigal is the next “please score for us” option, with Mukhtar and Ahmed Qasem supplying the ideas.

One extra twist: Nashville are juggling fixture congestion after a Champions Cup semifinal first leg on April 28. Short rest and travel can flatten intensity, especially late. Philadelphia will hope that turns the second half into a survival test for the visitors.

Head to head notes and the psychological edge

The latest head to head meeting (2025-03-16) ended Philadelphia 1-3 Nashville. That day, the betting odds liked the Union (1.83) and Nashville still walked away smiling. Philly also proved they can be stubborn on the road with a 1-1 at Club America (2026-03-19) at huge odds, while Nashville shocked Club America too, winning 0-1 away (2026-04-15). Both teams have shown they can travel, but Nashville have been doing it with more consistency.

Our AI picks: odds, total goals, and score prediction

Now to the numbers NerdyTips readers come for. The market is tight: home win 2.2, draw 3.35, away win 3.35. Still, our models lean away from Philadelphia.

  • Best tip: X2 (Nashville win or draw) at 1.72, confidence 7.6/10
  • 1X2 prediction: 2 (Nashville win) at 3.35, trust 6.0/10
  • Total goals: Under 3.55 at 1.33, confidence 4.3/10

Why this shape of picks? The projected match stats suggest a close midfield game (49% vs 51% possession), with Philadelphia actually expected to shoot more (13 vs 10) but with slightly worse accuracy (3 on target vs 4). That often points to “effort without reward,” especially against a Nashville side that has been more clinical.

Our expected script: a tight first half (predicted break score 0-0), then Nashville’s quality decides it. Final score call: 0-2. In short, this Philadelphia Union vs Nashville SC prediction favors Nashville avoiding defeat, with a cautious lean toward the away win if you want the bigger price.

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AI Predictions
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Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for Philadelp vs Nashville SC

X2 -139

Nashville SC to win or draw with odds of -139
7/10

1x2 Tip

2 235

Nashville SC is expected to win with odds of 235
6/10

Total Goals

Under 3.5 -313

No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match
4/10

Both Teams To Score

No 105

At least one team is not expected to score
1/10

Bet Builder Tip

X2&U4.5 -101

Away win/draw and under 4.5 goals
4/10
Both Teams To Score

Correct Score

0:2

Stats Predictions

1.21
xG
0.97
49%
Ball Possession
51%
13
Total Shots
10
3
Shots on Goal
4
6
Shots Off Goal
4
5
Corners
3
2
Yellow Cards
1

Average / Match

1.23
Expected Goals
1.2
2.5
Total Goals
2.1
0.9
Goals Scored
1.6
1.6
Goals Against
0.5
48%
Possession
50%
12.8
Total Shots
11.8
3.2
Shots on Goal
4.8
6.2
Shots off Goal
5
16.3
Fouls
11.7
6
Corners
4.4
1.1
Offsides
1.3
2.2
Yellow Cards
1.5
373
Total Passes
485

Overview Last 10 Matches

1
Wins
6
7
Over 1.5 Goals
5
5
Over 2.5 Goals
3
2
Over 3.5 Goals
2
6
Both Teams Scored
3
0
Unexpected Wins
2
0
Unexpected Loses
0

Head to Head

Philadelphia Union
4 - 3 - 5
Nashville SC
Philadelphia Union Philadelp 16-Mar-25
1:3
Nashville SC Nashville SC
Philadelphia Union Philadelp 21-Jul-24
3:0
Nashville SC Nashville SC
Philadelphia Union Philadelp 08-Oct-23
0:0
Nashville SC Nashville SC
Philadelphia Union Philadelp 28-Nov-21
1:1
Nashville SC Nashville SC
Philadelphia Union Philadelp 24-Oct-21
1:0
Nashville SC Nashville SC
Nashville SC Nashville SC 17-Sep-25
3:1
Philadelp Philadelphia Union
Nashville SC Nashville SC 06-Jul-25
1:0
Philadelp Philadelphia Union
Nashville SC Nashville SC 07-Apr-24
1:2
Philadelp Philadelphia Union
Nashville SC Nashville SC 14-Feb-23
2:0
Philadelp Philadelphia Union

Profile time Recent Matches of Philadelp

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14 MayL Orlando C Orlando C 4 Philadelp Philadelp 3
10 MayL New E New E 2 Philadelp Philadelp 1
03 MayD Philadelp Philadelp 0 Nashville SC Nashville SC 0
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23 AprD Toronto FC Toronto FC 3 Philadelp Philadelp 3
19 AprD Philadelp Philadelp 0 DC United DC United 0
11 AprW CF Montreal CF Montreal 1 Philadelp Philadelp 2
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Profile time Recent Matches Of Nashville SC

24 MayWNashville SC Nashville SC 2 New Y New Y 1
18 MayWNashville SC Nashville SC 3 Los A Los A 2
14 MayWNew E New E 0 Nashville SC Nashville SC 3
10 MayDNashville SC Nashville SC 2 DC United DC United 2
06 MayLTigres UANL Tigres UANL 1 Nashville SC Nashville SC 0
03 MayDPhiladelp Philadelp 0 Nashville SC Nashville SC 0
29 AprLNashville SC Nashville SC 0 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 1
26 AprWNashville SC Nashville SC 4 Charlotte Charlotte 2
19 AprWAtlanta U Atlanta U 0 Nashville SC Nashville SC 2
15 AprWClub America Club America 0 Nashville SC Nashville SC 1

USA - Major League Soccer USA - Major League Soccer

Team M G P
1 Nashville SCNashville SC1329-1030
2 Inter MiamiInter Miami1433-2428
3 New England RevolutionNew England1322-1725
4 Chicago FireChicago Fire1325-1523
5 New York City FCNew York City1424-1919
6 New York Red BullsNew York Red1423-3119
7 CharlotteCharlotte1423-2318
8 DC UnitedDC United1417-2117
9 FC CincinnatiFC Cincinnati1430-3517
10 Orlando City SCOrlando City1421-3814
11 Toronto FCToronto FC1321-2714
12 CF MontrealCF Montreal1318-2713
13 Columbus CrewColumbus Crew1419-2313
14 Atlanta United FCAtlanta United1314-2111
15 Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia1414-247
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