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Match Prediction

Philadelphia Union vs New York City FC Prediction

Finished
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Major League Soccer

Philadelp

€39.28m

24 Nov00:45
0 : 1

New York City

€47.97m

Preview

Philadelp vs New York City Prediction Major League Soccer

Philadelphia Union vs New York City FC Prediction: Odds, Tips & Analysis

Welcome to our Philadelphia Union vs New York City FC prediction, where we break down everything you need to know ahead of this crucial Eastern Conference Semifinal. With both teams bringing their own stories, tactics, and recent form into this high-stakes MLS playoff match, sports betting fans and football lovers alike will want to keep a close eye on the betting odds, head to head stats, and our expert tips. Let’s dive in and see what’s in store for this exciting night at Subaru Park.

Team Stories: Union’s Collective Power vs NYCFC’s Grit

The Philadelphia Union, fresh off their Supporters' Shield triumph, have been the model of consistency and teamwork this season. Under the guidance of Coach Bradley Carnell, recently named the 2025 Sigi Schmid MLS Coach of the Year, the Union have made a habit of turning collective effort into results. Their 5.4-2-2 formation emphasizes fast attacks and aggressive pressing, with width provided by dynamic midfielders. Sixteen players have played at least 20 matches, and 18 have found the net—talk about spreading the love!

Key players like Andre Blake, a three-time MLS Goalkeeper of the Year, and defender Jakob Glesnes, back to his best, have anchored a defense that’s tough to break. Up front, Tai Baribo’s recent brace against Chicago Fire FC in the playoffs ended his scoring drought at the perfect time, while Bruno Damiani chipped in as well. The Union’s only major injury concern is defender Ian Glavinovich, out for the season after knee surgery.

Off the pitch, there’s been some turbulence with Sporting Director Ernst Tanner placed on administrative leave due to an ongoing investigation. Coach Carnell, however, keeps the squad focused, reminding everyone, “We’re not superstars. I’m not a super coach. We don’t care.” It’s all about the team.

NYCFC: Battling Adversity and Chasing the Upset

New York City FC, the fifth seed, have shown real grit to reach this stage. Their playoff journey has been anything but straightforward, needing three games to get past Charlotte FC, with the away side winning every match. Coach Pascal Jansen, who arrived from Ferencvárosi, has instilled a “bulletproof mindset” in his young squad, and it’s paid off—especially on defense, where they conceded just 35 goals in the regular season, third fewest in MLS.

But the injury bug has bitten hard. Top scorer Alonso Martínez, who led MLS with 10 game-winning goals and 17 overall, is out with a severe knee injury. Midfielders Keaton Parks and Andrés Perea, plus Malachi Jones, are also sidelined, and Aidan O'Neill is suspended. Jansen will be relying on Hannes Wolf and Nicolás Fernández Mercau to pick up the slack in attack.

Despite these setbacks, NYCFC’s resilience was on display in their last head to head matchups and their recent draw against Inter Miami, where they defied the betting odds. Can they do it again?

Philadelphia Union vs New York City FC Prediction & Betting Odds

Now, let’s get into the numbers and our Philadelphia Union vs New York City FC prediction. Here’s what the stats, sports betting tips, and AI-powered insights are telling us:

  • Betting Odds: Home win – 1.85, Draw – 3.75, Away win – 5.4
  • AI Best Tip: 1X (home win or draw) with 8.5/10 confidence, odds at 1.22
  • NerdyTips’ 1x2 Recommendation: Home win (1), trust score 7.2, odds at 1.85
  • Over/Under Prediction: Over 1.5 goals, confidence 2.6, odds at 1.22
  • Predicted Final Score: 1.85 for Philadelphia Union
  • First Half Prediction: 1:0 for the home side

The numbers paint a clear picture: Philadelphia Union are favorites, both in the betting odds and in our AI’s Philadelphia Union vs New York City FC prediction. The Union are expected to control 57% possession, take 16 shots (4 on target), and win 6 corners. NYCFC, meanwhile, are predicted to have 43% possession, 7 shots (2 on target), and 2 corners. Even though NYCFC’s squad value is higher (€47.97m vs Union’s €39.28m), the injuries and suspensions put them at a disadvantage.

Head to Head: Recent Encounters

Looking at recent head to head results, the Union won their last meeting 1-0 on October 5, 2025. Earlier in the year, they pulled off a 5.4 away win at Orlando City SC, defying the odds. NYCFC, for their part, managed a gutsy 2-2 draw at Inter Miami, showing they can punch above their weight when needed.

Key Takeaways for Bettors

  1. Philadelphia Union’s home form and tactical discipline make them strong favorites.
  2. NYCFC’s injury crisis, especially the loss of Martínez, is a huge blow to their attacking threat.
  3. Our AI and NerdyTips both lean heavily toward a home win or draw (1X), with a predicted 1.85 scoreline.
  4. Expect over 1.5 goals, but don’t count on a goal-fest given NYCFC’s defensive focus and missing firepower.

Final Philadelphia Union vs New York City FC Prediction

All signs point to the Union advancing to the next round. Their team-first mentality, home advantage, and recent form make them the smart pick in this sports betting preview. NYCFC’s resilience is admirable, but with so many key players missing, it’s hard to see them pulling off another upset. Our Philadelphia Union vs New York City FC prediction: a 1.85 win for the home side, with a strong recommendation for the 1X bet at 1.22 odds.

For those looking to make the most of the betting odds, keep an eye on the over 1.5 goals market and consider the Union to win outright. As always, bet responsibly—and may your corners and yellow cards predictions be as accurate as our AI’s!

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AI Predictions
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Warning

New York City no motivation!

Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for Philadelp vs New York City

1X -455

Philadelp to win or draw with odds of -455
8/10

1x2 Tip

1 -118

Philadelp is expected to win with odds of -118
7/10

Total Goals

Over 1.5 -294

At least 2 goals will be scored in the match
2/10

Both Teams To Score

No -115

At least one team is not expected to score
1/10

Bet Builder Tip

1X&U5.5 -345

Home win/draw and under 5.5 goals
3/10
Both Teams To Score

Correct Score

2:0

Stats Predictions

1.65
xG
0.89
57%
Ball Possession
43%
16
Total Shots
7
4
Shots on Goal
2
7
Shots Off Goal
1
6
Corners
2
2
Yellow Cards
1

Average / Match

1.6
Expected Goals
1.33
3.3
Total Goals
2.9
1.9
Goals Scored
1.6
1.4
Goals Against
1.3
47%
Possession
51%
15.6
Total Shots
11.8
4.4
Shots on Goal
5
6.6
Shots off Goal
4.1
13.1
Fouls
14.5
5.4
Corners
5
1.4
Offsides
1.4
2.78
Yellow Cards
2.56
0.13
Red Cards
0
378
Total Passes
455

Overview Last 10 Matches

6
Wins
6
7
Over 1.5 Goals
7
6
Over 2.5 Goals
6
5
Over 3.5 Goals
5
2
Both Teams Scored
5
0
Unexpected Wins
0
0
Unexpected Loses
0

Head to Head

Philadelphia Union
13 - 2 - 12
New York City FC
Philadelphia Union Philadelp 05-Oct-25
1:0
New York City New York City FC
New York City FC New York City 13-Apr-25
1:0
Philadelp Philadelphia Union
New York City FC New York City 19-Sep-24
1:5
Philadelp Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia Union Philadelp 16-May-24
1:2
New York City New York City FC
New York City FC New York City 27-Jan-24
1:3
Philadelp Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia Union Philadelp 16-Jul-23
2:1
New York City New York City FC
New York City FC New York City 28-May-23
1:3
Philadelp Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia Union Philadelp 31-Oct-22
3:1
New York City New York City FC
Philadelphia Union Philadelp 26-Jun-22
2:1
New York City New York City FC
New York City FC New York City 19-Mar-22
0:2
Philadelp Philadelphia Union

Profile time Recent Matches of Philadelp

24 NovL Philadelp Philadelp.
0:1
New York Cit. New York City
01 NovW Chicago Fire Chicago Fire.
0:3
Philadelp. Philadelp
26 OctD Philadelp Philadelp.
2:2
Chicago Fire. Chicago Fire
18 OctL Charlotte Charlotte.
2:0
Philadelp. Philadelp
05 OctW Philadelp Philadelp.
1:0
New Y. New Y
28 SepW DC United DC United.
0:6
Philadelp. Philadelp
20 SepW Philadelp Philadelp.
1:0
New E. New E
17 SepL Nashville SC Nashville SC.
3:1
Philadelp. Philadelp
14 SepL Vancouver Vancouver.
7:0
Philadelp. Philadelp
31 AugW Cincinnati Cincinnati.
0:1
Philadelp. Philadelp

Profile time Recent Matches Of New York City

29 NovLInter Miami Inter Miami.
5:1
New York Cit.New York City
24 NovWPhiladelp Philadelp.
0:1
New York Cit.New York City
08 NovWCharlotte Charlotte.
1:3
New York Cit.New York City
01 NovDNew York City New York Cit.
0:0
Charlotte.Charlotte
28 OctWCharlotte Charlotte.
0:1
New York Cit.New York City
18 OctLNew York City New York Cit.
1:2
Seattle S.Seattle S
05 OctLPhiladelp Philadelp.
1:0
New Y.New Y
28 SepWNew Y New Y.
2:3
New Y.New Y
25 SepLNew Y New Y.
0:4
Inter Miami.Inter Miami
20 SepWNew Y New Y.
2:0
Charlotte.Charlotte

USA - Major League Soccer USA - Major League Soccer

Team Matches Goals Points
1 Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia U 34
57-35
66
2 FC CincinnatiFC Cincinnati 34
52-40
65
3 Inter MiamiInter Miami 34
81-55
65
4 CharlotteCharlotte 34
55-46
59
5 New York City FCNew York City 34
50-44
56
6 Nashville SCNashville SC 34
58-45
54
7 Columbus CrewColumbus Crew 34
55-51
54
8 Chicago FireChicago Fire 34
68-60
53
9 Orlando City SCOrlando City S 34
63-51
53
10 New York Red BullsNew York Red B 34
48-47
43
11 New England RevolutionNew England Re 34
44-51
36
12 Toronto FCToronto FC 34
37-44
32
13 CF MontrealCF Montreal 34
34-60
28
14 Atlanta United FCAtlanta United 34
38-63
28
15 DC UnitedDC United 34
30-66
26
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