Phoenix Rising welcomes FC Tulsa to Phoenix Rising Stadium on March 9, 2025, for what promises to be an intriguing USL Championship clash. With the home side priced at 1.55 for the win, the bookmakers clearly favor them, but can Tulsa pull off another surprise like they did against New Mexico United? Let’s break it down.

Historically, Phoenix Rising has had the upper hand, winning their last head-to-head meeting 1-0. Given that Tulsa has struggled against them in the past, the 1X double chance at 1.11 seems like a safe, albeit low-value, option. However, the real betting value lies in our AI’s best tip: Under 3.5 goals at 1.44.

Why? Well, the stats back it up. Only 30.1% of USL Championship matches see more than 3.5 goals, and Phoenix Rising’s last encounter with Tulsa ended with just a single goal. Our AI predicts a 1-0 final score, meaning a tight, low-scoring affair is likely. If you’re looking for a bet with a reasonable balance of risk and reward, under 3.5 goals is the way to go.

Phoenix Rising’s squad value of €4.65m dwarfs Tulsa’s €3.22m, but as Tulsa showed against New Mexico United, they’re capable of defying the odds. That said, Phoenix’s home advantage is significant—home teams win 42.2% of USL Championship matches, compared to just 27.1% for away sides.

If you’re feeling adventurous, a correct score bet on 1-0 could offer excellent returns. But for a more calculated approach, stick with Under 3.5 goals at 1.44. It’s not the flashiest bet, but in a game that looks set to be cagey, it’s the smartest play.