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Match Prediction

Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze Prediction

Finished
Poland flag Poland
Ekstraklasa

Piast Gliwice

€11.25m

17 May16:30
2 : 0

Gornik Zabrze

€14.10m

Preview

Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze Prediction Ekstraklasa

Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze Prediction: Derby Drama, Tactical Chess, and Betting Insights

The Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze prediction for May 17, 2.08, promises more than just local bragging rights—it’s a tactical chess match with a narrative shaped by recent form, historical head to head data, and razor-thin statistical margins. As Piast host Gornik at Stadion Miejski (16:30 GMT), only four points separate the sides after 32 matches: Piast sit 11th with 42 points, Gornik 6th on 46. With both teams eyeing a strong finish, this Silesian derby is set to be as much about psychology and precision as it is about passion and grit.

Head to Head: Recent History and Momentum

Rewind to February 2.084: Gornik Zabrze, unfancied by the bookmakers (4.0 odds), stunned Piast with a 3-1 away victory, despite Piast’s shorter odds (1.92). That result not only tilted the recent head to head balance but also injected extra spice into this encounter. Gornik have shown they can punch above their weight, as seen in their gritty 1-1 stalemate with Legia Warszawa last September, where they defied 5.02 odds as underdogs. These results underline Gornik’s ability to thrive when overlooked, a trait worth considering for your betting odds strategy.

Tactical Trends: Possession, Precision, and Set-Piece Threats

On paper, this fixture is a study in equilibrium. Gornik shade possession (51% vs 49%), but both teams are projected for an identical 13 total shots and 4 on target—a statistical standoff that hints at a midfield battle rather than an open shootout. Yet, Piast’s home advantage—where their €11.25m squad value meets the energy of Stadion Miejski—could be the intangible edge that tips the scales.

  • Possession Battle: Gornik’s slight edge in ball retention could see them dictate tempo, but Piast’s compactness at home often frustrates more expansive sides.
  • Set-Pieces: With Gornik predicted to win 6 corners to Piast’s 4, expect dead-ball situations to play a pivotal role—especially with both teams averaging just 4 shots on target.
  • Discipline: The AI expects a relatively clean affair—1 yellow for Piast, 2 for Gornik—suggesting tactical fouls over reckless challenges.

Key Statistics: What the Numbers Reveal

The statistical tapestry of this derby is fascinating:

  1. Total Goals: Only 48.1% of Ekstraklasa matches go over 2.5 goals, and both teams’ shot efficiency (4 on target each) reinforces the likelihood of a low-scoring affair.
  2. BTTS (Both Teams to Score): The league average sits at 51.74%, but with both sides defensively disciplined and closely matched, a 1-1 seems the logical outcome.
  3. Squad Value: Gornik’s €14.10m squad value signals greater depth, but Piast’s home form and tactical discipline often neutralize such disparities.

Betting Insights: Odds, AI Predictions, and Value Bets

For those seeking a sharp Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze prediction, NerdyTips’ AI offers a nuanced approach:

  • 1X (Double Chance): At 1.36 odds (2.0 trust), the AI leans toward Piast avoiding defeat—a nod to their home resilience and the derby’s typically tight margins.
  • Under 2.5 Goals: With 1.74 odds (3.4 trust), this market aligns with both teams’ shot patterns and the league’s historic scoring trends. The predicted 1-1 (HT 0-0) further supports this angle, appealing to those wary of high-risk punts.

Smart bettors will note that while Gornik have the higher squad value and recent away success, Piast’s home advantage and the derby’s tense dynamics level the field. The expected corners (Piast 4, Gornik 6) hint at set-piece drama, but with both teams struggling for clinical finishing, a cagey, low-scoring affair is the likeliest script.

Final Verdict: Tactical Stalemate or Derby Drama?

This isn’t just another mid-table meeting—it’s a derby where pride, positioning, and psychology intertwine. The Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze prediction leans toward a 1-1 draw, with neither side likely to gamble recklessly given the narrow four-point gap and what’s at stake. Expect a tactical battle, moments of set-piece tension, and a result that rewards patience over panache.

  • Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals (1.74 odds) fits the stats, the story, and the stakes.
  • Value Option: 1X (1.36 odds), banking on Piast’s home resilience.

For those seeking betting odds value and a deep tactical read, this Silesian derby offers a compelling blend of narrative, numbers, and nuance—just the way football, and smart betting, should be.

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AI Predictions
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Warning

Meaningless match!

Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze

U2.5 -135

No more than 2 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -135
3/10

1x2 Tip

1X -333

Piast Gliwice to win or draw
2/10

Total Goals

Under 2.5 -135

No more than 2 goals will be scored in the match
3/10

Both Teams To Score

Yes -120

Both teams are expected to score
1/10

Bet Builder Tip

1X&U4.5 -222

Home win/draw and under 4.5 goals
1/10
Both Teams To Score

Correct Score

1:1

Stats Predictions

49%
Ball Possession
51%
13
Total Shots
13
4
Shots on Goal
4
5
Shots Off Goal
4
4
Corners
6
1
Yellow Cards
2

Average / Match

2.8
Total Goals
2.1
1.3
Goals Scored
1.2
1.5
Goals Against
0.9
52%
Possession
55%
13.1
Total Shots
13.6
4.4
Shots on Goal
4.7
5.7
Shots off Goal
4.2
12
Fouls
8.7
4.9
Corners
5.9
2.3
Offsides
1.3
1.75
Yellow Cards
1.7
0
Red Cards
0
410
Total Passes
459

Overview Last 10 Matches

3
Wins
3
9
Over 1.5 Goals
7
6
Over 2.5 Goals
5
3
Over 3.5 Goals
1
7
Both Teams Scored
5
0
Unexpected Wins
0
0
Unexpected Loses
0

Head to Head

Piast Gliwice
7 - 6 - 2
Gornik Zabrze
Piast Gliwice Gliwice 17-May-25
2:0
Gornik Gornik Zabrze
Gornik Zabrze Gornik 24-Nov-24
1:0
Gliwice Piast Gliwice
Piast Gliwice Gliwice 10-Feb-24
1:3
Gornik Gornik Zabrze
Gornik Zabrze Gornik 05-Aug-23
0:0
Gliwice Piast Gliwice
Piast Gliwice Gliwice 31-Mar-23
1:0
Gornik Gornik Zabrze
Gornik Zabrze Gornik 10-Sep-22
3:3
Gliwice Piast Gliwice
Piast Gliwice Gliwice 26-Feb-22
0:0
Gornik Gornik Zabrze
Piast Gliwice Gliwice 09-Feb-22
0:0
Gornik Gornik Zabrze
Gornik Zabrze Gornik 28-Aug-21
0:1
Gliwice Piast Gliwice

Profile time Recent Matches of Gliwice

06 Dec Piast Gliwice Piast Gliwic.
-
Legia. Legia
03 DecL Piast Gliwice Piast Gliwic.
0:2
Lech Poznan. Lech Poznan

Profile time Recent Matches of Gornik

05 DecLechia Gdansk Lechia Gdans.
-
Gornik Zabrz.Gornik Zabrze
02 DecWLechia Gdansk Lechia Gdans.
1:3
Gornik Zabrz.Gornik Zabrze

Poland - Ekstraklasa Poland - Ekstraklasa

Team Matches Goals Points
1 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan34
68-31
70
2 Raków Częstochowa Raków Często34
51-23
69
3 Jagiellonia Jagiellonia34
56-42
61
4 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin34
59-40
58
5 Legia Warszawa Legia Warszawa34
60-45
54
6 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krako34
58-53
51
7 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin34
48-59
49
8 GKS Katowice GKS Katowice34
49-47
49
9 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze34
43-39
47
10 Piast Gliwice Piast Gliwice34
37-36
45
11 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce34
37-45
45
12 Radomiak Radom Radomiak Radom34
48-52
41
13 Widzew Łódź Widzew Łódź34
38-49
40
14 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk34
44-59
37
15 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin34
33-51
36
16 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec34
39-56
31
17 Slask Wroclaw Slask Wroclaw34
38-53
30
18 Puszcza Niepołomice Puszcza Niepo34
37-63
28
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