Pisa vs Bologna

Pisa vs Bologna prediction: survival nerves meet Europe joy

The Pisa vs Bologna prediction story writes itself ahead of Monday, 2026-03-02 (17:30 GMT) at the Arena Garibaldi – Stadio Romeo Anconetani: Pisa are scrapping for air near the bottom, while Bologna arrive with that confident “we’ve been travelling in Europe” stride.

Pisa sit 19th on 15 points and the recent run has been hard reading (L-L-D-L). The latest step was a 1-0 loss to Fiorentina on February 23, and the wider problem is bigger: just one league win in their last 24. Bologna, by contrast, are 8th with 36 points and have won three straight in all competitions. Four days before this trip they also booked a Europa League Round of 16 place by beating SK Brann 1-0 (1.95 on aggregate). Good vibes, but also tired legs.

Team news, tactics, and the little details that matter

Pisa’s biggest headline is in goal, and it’s not the kind you want. Both Adrian Šemper (knee) and Simone Scuffet (muscle) are out, so 37-year-old Nicolas is expected to start, with 16-year-old Tommaso Guizzo on the bench. If you like calm evenings, this is not ideal.

• Pisa injuries: Šemper, Scuffet, Calvin Stengs, Isak Vural, Daniel Denoon out; Raul Albiol a major doubt.
• Bologna injuries: Juan Miranda and Charalampos Lykogiannis out; Thijs Dallinga not fully fit (ankle); Torbjorn Heggem has back spasms; Federico Bernardeschi is back and featured in Europe.

Oscar Hiljemark, appointed in early February, is still chasing his first win. His early work has leaned toward defensive structure (the 0-0 against Verona was a clear “lock the doors” performance), but goals remain a struggle, with Stefano Moreo (5) carrying much of the threat. Bologna coach Vincenzo Italiano has his intense pressing game clicking now, and with Remo Freuler and Lewis Ferguson running the midfield, Bologna have looked comfortable controlling matches. Up top, Santiago Castro and Joao Mario (the match-winner against Brann) are the names Pisa’s back line will hear in their sleep.

There’s also a referee note for the planners: Feliciani takes the whistle, with Di Paolo on VAR. And if you’re looking at head to head notes, Pisa’s recent record isn’t pretty: they’ve lost three of the last four against Bologna, including a 4.55 defeat earlier this season.

Pisa did try to buy momentum in the winter window, spending over €15m on additions such as Rafiu Durosinmi and Rosen Bozhinov, but the league table has not moved much. In raw market value it’s also a mismatch: Pisa (€111.80m) vs Bologna (€283.00m).

Betting tips: NerdyTips angles, odds, and predicted game flow

The bookmakers lean Bologna: Home win 4.55, Draw 3.5, Away win 1.95. That lines up with our Pisa vs Bologna Prediction models, but with one important warning label: Bologna’s Europa League schedule could bring a small “European hangover,” making a tight win more likely than a party.

Our best bets and model picks

• Main betting tip (safest): X2 (Bologna win or draw) at 1.25, trust score 8.5/10.
• 1X2 prediction: Away win (2) at 1.95, confidence 8.0/10.
• Goals market: Under 3.5 goals at 1.29, trust rating 6.7/10.

Stat-wise, we’re projecting Bologna to have a bit more of the ball (45% vs 55%) and more volume going forward (shots 10–15, on target 3.5). Corners are pegged at 9 total (4.55), and cards look fairly calm (Pisa 2, Bologna 1). Put together, it paints a picture of Bologna edging territory without turning it into a goal-fest—especially with Pisa trying to keep shape under Hiljemark.

Correct score lean

• Expected final score: 0:1
• Half-time prediction: 0:0

One last bit of recent-context humility: Pisa already ripped up a script by drawing 1-1 with Atalanta on 2026-01-16 as massive outsiders (home odds 6.75). Bologna have also been involved in surprises, like Inter only managing 1-1 against them on 2025-12-19 despite Inter being priced around 1.8. Still, when you blend form, squad value, and the head to head trend, the Pisa vs Bologna prediction stays consistent: Bologna avoid defeat, and a narrow away win is the most likely way it lands.