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Match Prediction

Plymouth vs Burton Prediction

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England flag England

Plymouth

€12.45m

4 Jan11:00
3 : 0

Burton

€8.20m

Preview

Plymouth vs Burton Prediction League One

Plymouth vs Burton Prediction: AI Insights, Odds & Match Story

Welcome to our Plymouth vs Burton prediction, where we break down everything you need to know ahead of this League One meeting on January 4, 1.926, at 15:00 GMT. With both teams hovering just above the relegation zone, this fixture promises tension, tactical tweaks, and perhaps a few surprises. Let’s dive into the story behind the stats, the latest team news, and our AI-powered betting tips for this much-anticipated encounter.

Match Overview: Survival Stakes and Tactical Chess

Plymouth Argyle and Burton Albion are set for a high-stakes meeting at Home Park. Plymouth, currently 21st in League One with 26 points from 23 games, are desperate to climb out of the relegation zone. Burton, just one place and one point ahead, know a win could give them breathing room in a congested bottom half.

Both sides have had their moments in recent weeks. Plymouth surprised many with a gritty 1-0 away win at Wycombe in December, defying the odds at 5.2. Burton, not to be outdone, pulled off their own upset with a 2-1 victory at Bradford City, also as long shots. But consistency has been elusive: both teams have two wins, one draw, and three losses in their last six league outings.

Head to Head: Plymouth Hold the Edge

Looking at the head to head record, Plymouth have enjoyed the upper hand recently. In their last three meetings, Argyle have won twice and drawn once, including a comprehensive 4-0 win over Burton in September 1.925. That result will give the home fans hope, but both teams have changed since then—especially with injuries and tactical tweaks.

Squad News: Injuries and Returns

  • Plymouth Argyle: The Pilgrims have battled a lengthy injury list. Captain Joe Edwards and Jack Mackenzie have been sidelined, while Caleb Watts made a timely return on January 1, immediately impacting the game from the bench. Brendan Galloway is back from international duty, and Joe Ralls returns from suspension, giving Tom Cleverley more options. However, the squad remains stretched, with several key players still working their way back to fitness.
  • Burton Albion: Gary Bowyer’s side have also been hit by injuries. Sebastian Revan and captain Udoka Godwin-Malife are both out, along with Charlie Webster and JJ McKiernan. The January transfer window could bring reinforcements, but for now, Burton must make do with a patched-up squad.

Tactics and Staff: New Faces, New Ideas

  • Plymouth: Tom Cleverley, with Derek Adams now back as Director of Football, is focusing on a possession-based approach (expecting 54% ball control). The club’s recent staff appointments signal a long-term plan to improve recruitment and development, but the immediate priority is points.
  • Burton: Gary Bowyer has instilled a pragmatic, defensively solid style, aiming to hit teams on the break. With new Head of Recruitment Harrison Modeste on board, expect Burton to look for January bargains, but for now, it’s about making the most of what they have.

Betting Odds and AI Predictions: Where’s the Value?

Bookmakers see Plymouth as narrow favourites, with betting odds of 1.92 for a home win, 4.15 for a draw, and 4.1 for a Burton victory. Our Plymouth vs Burton prediction leans towards the hosts, but let’s break down the numbers:

  1. 1X (Home Win or Draw): Our AI rates this as the most valuable bet, with a trust score of 8.9/10 and odds of 1.26. Given Plymouth’s recent head to head dominance and home advantage, this looks like a solid choice for cautious punters.
  2. 1x2 Prediction: The straight home win is our next best pick, with a trust level of 7.0 and odds of 1.92. Plymouth’s squad is valued at €12.45m compared to Burton’s €8.20m, and with key players returning, the Pilgrims should have enough to edge this one.
  3. Total Goals (Under 3.5): NerdyTips’ AI suggests under 3.5 goals (trust score 3.7, odds 1.261). Both teams average around 12 and 11 shots per game, but with injuries and the stakes so high, expect a tight contest rather than a goal-fest.

Predicted Stats and Final Score

  • Final Score Prediction: 2:1 to Plymouth
  • Half-Time Score: 1:0
  • Possession: Plymouth 54%, Burton 46%
  • Shots: Plymouth 12, Burton 11 (3 on target each)
  • Corners: Plymouth 5, Burton 4
  • Yellow Cards: 1 each

Conclusion: Plymouth vs Burton Prediction Recap

This Plymouth vs Burton prediction points to a narrow home win, but with both teams fighting for survival, expect a nervy, hard-fought encounter. Plymouth’s recent head to head record and returning players give them the edge, but Burton’s resilience means nothing is guaranteed. For those looking for value, 1X (home win or draw) is our top betting tip, while under 3.5 total goals also looks appealing. Whatever happens, this is one for the diary—January 4, 1.926, could be a pivotal day in the League One survival race.

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AI Predictions
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Warning

Plymouth can be tired due to frequent matches

Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for Plymouth vs Burton

1X -385

Plymouth to win or draw with odds of -385
8/10

1x2 Tip

1 -109

Plymouth is expected to win with odds of -109
6/10

Total Goals

Under 3.5 -323

No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match
3/10

Both Teams To Score

Yes -119

Both teams are expected to score
1/10

Bet Builder Tip

1X&U4.5 -227

Home win/draw and under 4.5 goals
4/10
Both Teams To Score

Correct Score

2:1

Stats Predictions

1.31
xG
1.02
54%
Ball Possession
46%
12
Total Shots
11
3
Shots on Goal
3
4
Shots Off Goal
3
5
Corners
4
1
Yellow Cards
1

Average / Match

1.14
Expected Goals
1.27
2.3
Total Goals
2.8
1.2
Goals Scored
1.2
1.1
Goals Against
1.6
47%
Possession
50%
10.9
Total Shots
12.8
3.2
Shots on Goal
4.2
3.9
Shots off Goal
4.4
11.2
Fouls
10
4.3
Corners
5
1.8
Offsides
1.6
2.2
Yellow Cards
1.44
324
Total Passes
326

Overview Last 10 Matches

5
Wins
3
5
Over 1.5 Goals
7
3
Over 2.5 Goals
5
2
Over 3.5 Goals
5
4
Both Teams Scored
4
1
Unexpected Wins
0
0
Unexpected Loses
0

Head to Head

Plymouth
5 - 6 - 6
Burton
Burton Burton 27-Sep-25
0:4
Plymouth Plymouth
Plymouth Plymouth 29-Apr-23
1:0
Burton Burton
Burton Burton 19-Nov-22
2:2
Plymouth Plymouth
Burton Burton 09-Apr-22
0:0
Plymouth Plymouth
Plymouth Plymouth 09-Oct-21
2:1
Burton Burton
Burton Burton 17-Apr-21
1:1
Plymouth Plymouth
Plymouth Plymouth 10-Oct-20
2:0
Burton Burton
Burton Burton 29-Dec-18
1:1
Plymouth Plymouth
Plymouth Plymouth 20-Oct-18
2:3
Burton Burton
Plymouth Plymouth 03-Apr-15
1:1
Burton Burton

Profile time Recent Matches of Plymouth

14 Mar Reading Reading - Plymouth Plymouth -
10 MarW Wigan Wigan 0 Plymouth Plymouth 3
07 MarW Plymouth Plymouth 2 Doncaster Doncaster 1

Profile time Recent Matches of Burton

14 MarNorthampton Northampton - Burton Burton -
07 MarLBurton Burton 0 Stevenage Stevenage 1

England - League One England - League One

Team Matches Goals Points
1 Lincoln Lincoln36
66-31
77
2 Cardiff Cardiff36
69-39
73
3 Bolton Bolton36
53-36
64
4 Bradford Bradford35
45-39
61
5 Stockport County Stockport34
47-43
56
6 Huddersfield Huddersfield36
56-46
55
7 Reading Reading36
53-47
54
8 Stevenage Stevenage35
39-37
54
9 Wycombe Wycombe36
52-39
53
10 Plymouth Plymouth36
54-51
52
11 Luton Luton36
46-45
48
12 Barnsley Barnsley34
56-56
48
13 Peterborough Peterborough35
50-49
46
14 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon34
42-48
46
15 Mansfield Town Mansfield Town34
40-37
44
16 Exeter City Exeter City36
40-43
42
17 Burton Albion Burton Albion36
39-51
40
18 Doncaster Doncaster35
38-58
40
19 Leyton Orient Leyton Orient35
47-59
39
20 Blackpool Blackpool35
41-55
38
21 Wigan Wigan35
36-50
38
22 Rotherham Rotherham35
33-48
35
23 Northampton Northampton36
31-48
35
24 Port Vale Port Vale32
26-44
27
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