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Match Prediction

Porto vs Guimaraes Prediction

Finished
Portugal flag Portugal
Primeira Liga

Porto

€350.20m

11 Aug15:45
3 : 0

Guimaraes

€50.55m

Preview

Porto vs Guimaraes Prediction Primeira Liga

Porto vs Guimaraes Prediction: Odds, Tactics, and Insights for 2025

The new Primeira Liga season kicks off with a bang as Porto welcome Vitória Guimarães to Estádio do Dragão on August 9, 2025, at 20:30 GMT. If you’re searching for the best Porto vs Guimaraes prediction, you’re in the right place. We’ve gathered the latest team news, tactical insights, and betting odds to help you get ahead of the game—whether you’re a die-hard fan or just looking to spice up your Saturday night.

Team Form and Tactical Rundown

Let’s start with the hosts. Porto, under the guidance of Francesco Farioli, enter the new campaign with a blend of hope and pressure. Their pre-season was solid, and they recently edged out Twente Enschede 2-1 and even managed a gritty 1-0 win over Atlético Madrid. While their last five fixtures show a mixed bag—one win, two draws, and two losses—they ended the previous Primeira Liga season with a convincing 3-0 victory against CD Nacional.

  • Porto’s Strengths: Home advantage at Estádio do Dragão, a squad valued at a whopping €350.20m, and the arrival of Luuk de Jong add some extra firepower up front.
  • Porto’s Weaknesses: Defensive lapses have crept in, with eight goals conceded in their last four games. Red card suspensions for N. Pérez, Gonçalo Borges, and Nico González could force Farioli to shuffle his pack.
  • Key Player Watch: Froholdt, who recently scored his first goal for Porto, is one to keep an eye on—especially if he keeps earning those standing ovations.

On the other side, Vitória Guimarães—sometimes just called Guimarães or Vitória—have had a rollercoaster run-in. Three wins and two losses in their last five matches show they can be dangerous, but consistency is a bit of a stranger. Their most recent outing was a morale-boosting 1-0 win over Celta de Vigo, yet they struggled in their final league match last season, losing 0-2 to Sporting CP.

  • Guimarães’ Strengths: Only one loss in their last eight away games and a knack for pulling off surprises—remember that 2-2 draw at Real Betis with odds of 5.07?
  • Guimarães’ Weaknesses: Scoring just four goals and conceding nine in their last five fixtures tells its own story. Plus, 16 yellow cards in recent matches could spell trouble if discipline slips.
  • Tactical Approach: Coach Luis Carlos Batalha Freire is still searching for the right formula, especially when facing the league’s elite.

Head to Head: History Favors the Hosts

If you’re a fan of stats, the head to head record reads like a Porto love letter. Out of 61 meetings, Porto have won 50 times, Guimarães just four, with seven draws sprinkled in. Their last Primeira Liga encounter ended 1-1, so Guimarães know how to make things tricky, but Porto’s home ground is called a fortress for a reason.

Betting Odds and AI Prediction

Now, let’s talk numbers. The current betting odds stack up like this:

  • Home win (Porto): 1.53
  • Draw: 4.15
  • Away win (Guimarães): 5.9

Our AI leans towards a Porto win, giving it a trust rating of 4.9/10—not exactly a slam dunk, but the odds of 1.53 reflect Porto’s dominance at home. The most likely outcome in the 1x2 market is a home victory, with a confidence level of 5.0. If you’re looking at total goals, the over 1.5 market is favored, with a trust level of 4.7 and odds of 1.25. The predicted final score? 2:0 to Porto, with a 1:0 lead expected at half-time.

Porto vs Guimaraes Prediction: Final Thoughts

While Guimarães have shown they can punch above their weight, especially away from home, the smart money—and our Porto vs Guimaraes prediction—leans heavily towards the hosts. Porto’s firepower, home advantage, and historical record make them the clear favorites, even if a few suspensions and defensive hiccups add a pinch of uncertainty. Expect a solid start from Porto, with Guimarães needing something special to spoil the party.

  • Best Tip: Porto to win (odds 1.53)
  • Predicted Score: Porto 2-0 Guimarães
  • Half-Time Score: Porto 1-0 Guimarães
  • Over/Under: Over 1.5 total goals

So, whether you’re betting, watching, or just here for the stats, this opener promises drama, goals, and a few talking points for the week ahead. For more on the Porto vs Guimaraes prediction and all things Primeira Liga, keep it locked on NerdyTips.

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Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for Porto vs Guimaraes

1 -189

Porto is expected to win with odds of -189
4/10

1x2 Tip

1 -189

Porto is expected to win with odds of -189
4/10

Total Goals

Over 1.5 -455

At least 2 goals will be scored in the match
4/10

Both Teams To Score

No -109

At least one team is not expected to score
1/10

Bet Builder Tip

1X&U4.5 -294

Home win/draw and under 4.5 goals
4/10
Both Teams To Score

Correct Score

2:0

Average / Match

2.7
Total Goals
3.2
1.5
Goals Scored
2
1.2
Goals Against
1.2
59%
Possession
57%
13
Total Shots
14.6
4.3
Shots on Goal
3.8
4.9
Shots off Goal
6.2
13.4
Fouls
14
6.3
Corners
7.2
1
Offsides
2.2
1.83
Yellow Cards
2.8
0.14
Red Cards
0
468
Total Passes
434

Overview Last 10 Matches

5
Wins
5
7
Over 1.5 Goals
8
5
Over 2.5 Goals
7
2
Over 3.5 Goals
1
4
Both Teams Scored
4
0
Unexpected Wins
0
2
Unexpected Loses
1

Head to Head

Porto
28 - 5 - 3
Guimaraes
Porto FC Porto 11-Aug-25
3:0
Guimaraes Guimaraes
Porto FC Porto 24-Feb-25
1:1
Guimaraes Guimaraes
Guimaraes Guimaraes 21-Sep-24
0:3
FC Porto Porto
Porto FC Porto 17-Apr-24
3:1
Guimaraes Guimaraes
Porto FC Porto 07-Apr-24
1:2
Guimaraes Guimaraes
Guimaraes Guimaraes 03-Apr-24
0:1
FC Porto Porto
Guimaraes Guimaraes 11-Nov-23
1:2
FC Porto Porto
Porto FC Porto 27-May-23
3:0
Guimaraes Guimaraes
Guimaraes Guimaraes 21-Jan-23
0:1
FC Porto Porto

Profile time Recent Matches of FC Porto

11 Dec FC Porto FC Porto.
-
Malmo FF. Malmo FF
07 DecW Tondela Tondela.
0:2
FC Porto. FC Porto
04 DecL FC Porto FC Porto.
1:3
Guimaraes. Guimaraes

Profile time Recent Matches of Guimaraes

08 DecDGuimaraes Guimaraes.
0:0
Gil Vicente.Gil Vicente
04 DecWFC Porto FC Porto.
1:3
Guimaraes.Guimaraes

Portugal - Primeira Liga Portugal - Primeira Liga

Team Matches Goals Points
1 FC Porto FC Porto12
25-3
34
2 Sporting CP Sporting CP12
31-6
31
3 Benfica Benfica12
25-7
28
4 GIL Vicente GIL Vicente12
16-6
23
5 Famalicao Famalicao12
13-7
20
6 SC Braga SC Braga12
23-11
19
7 Moreirense Moreirense12
18-17
19
8 Guimaraes Guimaraes12
14-17
17
9 Alverca Alverca12
14-19
14
10 Estoril Estoril12
19-18
13
11 Rio Ave Rio Ave12
15-20
13
12 Santa Clara Santa Clara12
10-14
12
13 Nacional Nacional12
12-17
12
14 Estrela Estrela12
13-18
11
15 Casa Pia Casa Pia12
13-26
9
16 Tondela Tondela12
7-20
9
17 Arouca Arouca12
13-34
9
18 AVS AVS12
8-29
3
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