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Match Prediction

Porto vs Nacional Prediction

Finished
Portugal flag Portugal
Primeira Liga

Porto

€312.70m

17 May13:00
3 : 0

Nacional

€16.67m

Preview

Porto vs Nacional Prediction Primeira Liga

Porto vs Nacional Prediction: Stats, Betting Tips & Preview for 2025-05-17

If you’re searching for the ultimate Porto vs Nacional prediction for the big match at Estádio Do Dragão on May 17th, 2025, you’ve come to the right place. This fixture is more than just a meeting of two Primeira Liga sides—it’s a classic David vs Goliath story, with Porto sitting comfortably in 3rd place on 68 points, while Nacional finds themselves down in 13th with just 34 points after 33 matches. With a 34-point gap and a 10-place difference, the numbers tell quite a tale—but as we’ve seen in their head to head history, football always has room for surprises!

Porto vs Nacional Prediction: Odds, Form & Key Stats

Let’s start with the betting odds. Porto are the clear favorites at 1.28 for a home win, while a draw is priced at 5.75, and a Nacional away win is a distant 10.0. NerdyTips’ AI is all in on Porto, giving a home win (1) a trust level of 10.0/10 and odds of 1.28. The 1x2 market prediction also screams Porto with the same trust rating and odds. If you’re feeling adventurous, the over 2.5 goals market is suggested at 1.64, but with a lower trust score of 3.7.

  • Predicted final score: 3:0 for Porto
  • Predicted half-time score: 1:0 for Porto
  • Predicted possession: Porto 68%, Nacional 32%
  • Shots: Porto 13, Nacional 8
  • On target: Porto 5, Nacional 1
  • Corners: Porto 5, Nacional 1
  • Yellow cards: Porto 2, Nacional 1

The numbers paint a clear picture: Porto is expected to dominate possession, create more chances, and keep Nacional’s opportunities to a minimum. With a squad valued at €312.70m compared to Nacional’s €16.67m, the gulf in resources is as wide as the Douro River.

Primeira Liga Trends & What They Mean for This Match

Primeira Liga stats show that home teams win 43.5% of matches, away teams 32.4%, and 24.1% end in a draw. Both teams score in 48.5% of games, while 72% of matches see over 1.5 goals, 48.6% go over 2.5, and 26.8% over 3.5. These numbers support the Porto vs Nacional prediction for a high-scoring home win, especially with Porto’s recent attacking form.

  • Porto have won 7 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per game, with 5 matches over 2.5 goals.
  • Nacional, on the other hand, have just 3 wins in their last 10, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.6 goals per game, but have seen 6 matches go over 2.5 goals.
  • Porto average 60.4% possession and 12.3 shots per game, while Nacional manage 51% possession and 14 shots per game.

Despite Nacional’s ability to get shots off, their conversion rate and defensive record suggest Porto should be able to keep them at bay. The predicted 3:0 scoreline fits well with both teams’ recent trends and the league’s over 2.5 goals frequency.

Head to Head: Can Nacional Upset the Odds Again?

History has its quirks. Porto thumped Nacional 4-1 on July 13, 2024, but Nacional stunned everyone with a 2-0 win on January 12, 2025, at massive 8.0 odds. While lightning rarely strikes twice, this serves as a reminder that betting tips should always account for football’s unpredictability. Still, with Porto’s home advantage and superior stats, another upset seems unlikely.

Betting Tips & Final Thoughts

  1. Home Win (1): The Porto vs Nacional prediction is a confident home win, with both AI and stats aligning at 1.28 odds and a trust level of 10.0/10.
  2. Over 2.5 Goals: With both teams featuring in high-scoring games recently, over 2.5 goals at 1.64 is worth considering, though with moderate confidence (trust score 3.7).
  3. Correct Score: 3:0 for Porto is the predicted outcome, reflecting the teams’ recent forms and attacking/defensive records.

In summary, all signs point to a comfortable Porto win. The stats, betting odds, and recent form make this Porto vs Nacional prediction one of the most straightforward of the round—though as always, football loves a surprise. For those looking to make the most of their betting tips, the home win is the AI’s top pick, and it’s hard to argue with the numbers.

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AI Predictions
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Warning

Nacional no motivation!

Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for Porto vs Nacional

1 -357

Porto is expected to win with odds of -357
10/10

1x2 Tip

1 -357

Porto is expected to win with odds of -357
10/10

Total Goals

Over 2.5 -204

At least 3 goals will be scored in the match
3/10

Both Teams To Score

No -118

At least one team is not expected to score
1/10

Bet Builder Tip

1X&O2.5 -167

Home win/draw and over 2.5 goals
3/10
Both Teams To Score

Correct Score

3:0

Stats Predictions

68%
Ball Possession
32%
13
Total Shots
8
5
Shots on Goal
1
4
Shots Off Goal
3
5
Corners
1
2
Yellow Cards
1

Average / Match

2.6
Total Goals
2.7
1.5
Goals Scored
1.1
1.1
Goals Against
1.6
60%
Possession
52%
12.3
Total Shots
14.3
4.7
Shots on Goal
4.1
4.4
Shots off Goal
6.7
15.1
Fouls
12.3
4.7
Corners
4.6
1.5
Offsides
1.8
2.4
Yellow Cards
1.8
0.1
Red Cards
0.2
505
Total Passes
346

Overview Last 10 Matches

7
Wins
3
8
Over 1.5 Goals
7
5
Over 2.5 Goals
6
2
Over 3.5 Goals
2
5
Both Teams Scored
5
0
Unexpected Wins
0
1
Unexpected Loses
0

Head to Head

Porto
18 - 2 - 2
Nacional
Porto FC Porto 17-May-25
3:0
Nacional Nacional
Nacional Nacional 12-Jan-25
2:0
FC Porto Porto
Porto FC Porto 13-Jul-24
4:1
Nacional Nacional
Nacional Nacional 18-Apr-21
0:1
FC Porto Porto
Nacional Nacional 12-Jan-21
2:4
FC Porto Porto
Porto FC Porto 20-Dec-20
2:0
Nacional Nacional
Nacional Nacional 12-May-19
0:4
FC Porto Porto
Porto FC Porto 07-Jan-19
3:1
Nacional Nacional
Porto FC Porto 04-Mar-17
7:0
Nacional Nacional

Profile time Recent Matches of FC Porto

07 Dec Tondela Tondela.
-
FC Porto. FC Porto
04 DecL FC Porto FC Porto.
1:3
Guimaraes. Guimaraes
30 NovW FC Porto FC Porto.
1:0
Estoril. Estoril

Profile time Recent Matches of Nacional

07 DecAlverca Alverca.
-
Nacional.Nacional

Portugal - Primeira Liga Portugal - Primeira Liga

Team Matches Goals Points
1 Sporting CP Sporting CP34
88-27
82
2 Benfica Benfica34
84-28
80
3 FC Porto FC Porto34
65-30
71
4 SC Braga SC Braga34
55-30
66
5 Santa Clara Santa Clara34
36-32
57
6 Guimaraes Guimaraes34
47-37
54
7 Famalicao Famalicao34
44-39
47
8 Estoril Estoril34
48-53
46
9 Casa Pia Casa Pia34
39-44
45
10 Moreirense Moreirense34
42-50
40
11 Rio Ave Rio Ave34
39-55
38
12 Arouca Arouca34
35-49
38
13 GIL Vicente GIL Vicente34
34-47
34
14 Nacional Nacional34
32-50
34
15 Estrela Estrela34
24-50
29
16 AVS AVS34
25-60
27
17 Farense Farense34
25-46
27
18 Boavista Boavista34
24-59
24
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