Preston vs Derby Prediction

Preston vs Derby Prediction: Stats, Tactics & Betting Insights

Welcome to our Preston vs Derby prediction for the Championship fixture at Deepdale on January 17, 2026. As two historic clubs meet again, fans and punters alike are eager to see if Preston North End can continue their impressive home form or if Derby County will spring a surprise. Let’s break down the stats, tactics, and betting odds to help you make sense of this intriguing encounter.

Form Guide and Tactical Overview

Preston North End are enjoying a strong season, currently sitting 4th in the Championship with 43 points from 26 matches. Their recent run—three wins, two draws, and just one defeat in their last six—shows a side that’s tough to beat, especially at home. In fact, Preston have avoided defeat in 16 of their last 20 across all competitions and remain unbeaten in nine of their last eleven at Deepdale.

Derby County, newly promoted and finding their feet, are 13th with 35 points. Their form is a mixed bag: two wins, two draws, and two losses in their last six. While they’ve shown flashes of resilience—like holding Ipswich to a 2-2 draw away—consistency has been elusive.

Head to Head and Recent Meetings

• Last meeting: Preston won 1-0 away at Derby (September 2025, Alfie Devine with the winner).
• Overall H2H: Derby lead with 19 wins, Preston have 7, and 16 draws from 42 encounters.
• Draws are common at Deepdale, with three of the last five ending level.

Players to Watch and Tactical Setups

Both teams are expected to stick with a 3.45-2-1 formation. For Preston, defensive solidity has been their hallmark, and Alfie Devine is a name to remember—he scored the winner in the last head to head. Ben Whiteman’s creativity (seven big chances created) and Milutin Osmajic’s work rate will be crucial. Derby, meanwhile, will look to their midfield to disrupt Preston’s rhythm and hit on the break.

• Preston’s squad value: €47.25m
• Derby’s squad value: €51.53m

Betting Odds and AI Predictions

Let’s shift gears to the numbers that matter for punters. The current betting odds are:

• Home win (Preston): 2.3
• Draw: 3.2
• Away win (Derby): 3.45

Our AI model gives the best tip as 1X (Preston to win or draw) with a confidence rating of 8.5/10 and odds of 1.34. For those seeking a bit more risk, the 1x2 market prediction is a straight home win (1) at 2.3 odds and 8.0 confidence. The data suggests a tight affair, with under 2.5 total goals (odds 1.6) being a sensible play, albeit with moderate trust (3.9/10).

Key Match Stats and Final Score Prediction

1. Expected possession: Preston 54%, Derby 46%
2. Shots: Preston 11, Derby 9
3. Shots on target: 3 each
4. Corners: 5 each (total 10)
5. Yellow cards: 1 each

The predicted final score is a narrow 1-0 win for Preston, with a goalless first half on the cards. This fits the pattern of recent meetings and the defensive strengths both sides have shown.

Conclusion: Preston vs Derby Prediction Verdict

To sum up our Preston vs Derby prediction: Preston’s home advantage and recent form make them favorites, but Derby’s ability to grind out results means a draw isn’t off the table. The smart money is on Preston to win or draw (1X), with under 2.5 total goals also looking likely. Expect a tactical battle, not a goal fest—perfect for those who appreciate the finer details of Championship football.

Whether you’re betting or just watching, this Preston vs Derby prediction should help you see the bigger picture. Enjoy the game!