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Progreso vs Atletico Torque prediction: revenge, control, and value
Progreso vs Atletico Torque prediction time arrives again very quickly, with kickoff set for 14:00 GMT on 2026-05-23. Even though many fans still talk about it as “Apertura season mood,” the calendar says this one actually belongs to the Torneo Intermedio (Serie B, Round 2), played at Estadio Abraham Paladino. And yes, these two have barely had time to unpack their kits: they met again on May 10, when Torque turned a deficit into a 2-1 win.
That recent head to head had everything: an early Progreso goal from Nahuel López, a clever moment in the build-up, and then the classic “law of the ex” doing laps. Torque’s equaliser and winner both came from players with Progreso history, including a scorer who even looked sorry about it. Progreso will take that personally, but they also need points for more than pride—because the table pressure is real.
How the game may look at Paladino
Tabaré Silva’s Progreso have been stuck in a rough stretch and it shows in their approach. When confidence dips, teams simplify: defend lower, keep the lines tight, and hope one good counter makes the difference. They conceded around 1.333 goals per game recently, and after opening the Intermedio with a 2-0 loss away to Juventud, the priority is likely “don’t give gifts.”
- Progreso plan: sit deep, protect the box, and look for Nahuel López and Agustín Codagnone to spark transitions.
- Key structure: Mehring in goal, with Carroso and G. Silva among the defenders; Colombino and Lemmo trying to connect the phases.
- Main risk: if Progreso chase the game too early, the spaces behind them can get very expensive.
Marcelo Méndez’s Montevideo City Torque generally prefer the opposite rhythm: keep the ball, move it patiently, and turn territory into chances. Their squad value edge (€8.10m vs €5.75m) fits the eye test too—Torque usually look a bit sharper across the pitch. The only complication is schedule weight: they’ve been mixing domestic matches with a demanding Copa Sudamericana run, and that can reduce energy late on. Still, even in their Intermedio opener (a 2-1 loss to Nacional after scoring first), they showed they can control spells of play.
Progreso vs Atletico Torque prediction: odds and AI betting tips
The market leans away from the home side: Home win 3.5, Draw 3.25, Away win 2.2. Given Progreso’s form (five losses in the last six) and Torque’s ability to manage games with the ball, that pricing makes sense. And history adds spice: the most recent listed H2H before this run included a 0-5 result, so Progreso know what happens when Torque find their groove.
Main picks (NerdyTips style)
- Best safety pick: X2 (Torque or Draw) at 1.33, confidence 8.8/10. This matches the expected game script: Torque with slightly more control and fewer chaotic moments.
- 1X2 lean: Away win (2) at 2.2, confidence 8.5/10. If you want value, this is where it lives.
- Goals: Under 3.5 at 1.25, confidence 4.6/10. Not the strongest confidence, but it fits the forecast of a tight match.
Our projections paint a very “Torque away win by patience” picture: 46% vs 54% possession, shots 7-11, and on-target only 2-3. Corners are close (4-5), suggesting long phases of control rather than constant chaos. Cards could be a factor too (3 for Progreso, 2 for Torque), which often happens when the home side defends deep and arrives a half-step late.
Correct score call: 0-1, with a half-time score of 0-0. So the story we’re betting on is simple: Progreso hold on early, Torque keep knocking, and one moment decides it. For anyone building betting tips, the safer angle is X2; the bolder play is the away win at 2.2. Either way, this Progreso vs Atletico Torque prediction points to Torque leaving Paladino with something—maybe not fireworks, but points.
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Warning
Derby match
Best Tip
The best betting football prediction for Progreso vs TorqueX2 -303
Torque to win or draw with odds of -3031x2 Tip
2 120
Torque is expected to win with odds of 120Total Goals
Under 3.5 -400
No more than 3 goals will be scored in the matchBoth Teams To Score
No -115
At least one team is not expected to scoreBet Builder Tip
X2&U4.5 -204
Away win/draw and under 4.5 goalsCorrect Score
0:1
Stats Predictions
Average / Match
Overview Last 10 Matches
Head to Head
|
|
5
-
6
-
10
|
|
Latest Matches
 Torque |
10-May-26
2:1
| Progreso  |
| Torque |
13-Jun-25
3:1
| Progreso |
| Torque |
04-May-25
2:3
| Progreso |
| Torque |
05-Oct-22
1:2
| Progreso |
| Torque |
04-Dec-21
1:0
| Progreso |
| Torque |
05-Apr-14
6:0
| Progreso |
| Torque |
11-Apr-15
2:1
| Progreso |
| Torque |
28-Nov-15
2:2
| Progreso |
| Torque |
15-Feb-20
1:3
| Progreso |
| Torque |
10-Feb-18
0:3
| Progreso |
Recent Matches of Progreso
| 07 Jun | L |
Progreso
| 1 |
Albion FC
| 2 |
| 30 May | W |
Danubio
| 1 |
Progreso
| 2 |
| 23 May | L |
Progreso
| 1 |
Torque
| 2 |
| 16 May | L |
Juventud
| 2 |
Progreso
| 0 |
| 10 May | L |
Torque
| 2 |
Progreso
| 1 |
| 03 May | L |
Progreso
| 0 |
Cerro Largo
| 1 |
| 27 Apr | L |
Defensor S
| 1 |
Progreso
| 0 |
| 18 Apr | W |
Progreso
| 2 |
Wanderers
| 1 |
| 12 Apr | L |
Juventud
| 1 |
Progreso
| 0 |
| 04 Apr | L |
Progreso
| 0 |
Penarol
| 2 |
Recent Matches Of Torque
| 06 Jun | L | Torque |
2 |  Deportivo M |
4 |
| 31 May | W |  Albion FC |
1 | Torque |
2 |
| 26 May | D |  Gremio |
2 | Torque |
2 |
| 23 May | W | Progreso |
1 | Torque |
2 |
| 19 May | W | Torque |
4 |  Deportivo R |
1 |
| 16 May | L | Torque |
1 |  Club N |
2 |
| 10 May | W | Torque |
2 | Progreso |
1 |
| 06 May | W | Torque |
1 |  Palestino |
0 |
| 03 May | D |  Racing M |
1 | Torque |
1 |
| 29 Apr | L | Deportivo R |
2 | Torque |
1 |
Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura
| Team | M | G | P | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
 Racing | 15 | 23-14 | 31 |
| 2 |
 Deportivo | 15 | 24-16 | 29 |
| 3 |
Albion FC | 15 | 26-16 | 28 |
| 4 |
Penarol | 15 | 23-16 | 27 |
| 5 |
 Central | 15 | 23-22 | 24 |
| 6 |
Atletico | 15 | 22-16 | 23 |
| 7 |
 Club Nacional | 15 | 26-21 | 22 |
| 8 |
Defensor | 15 | 13-11 | 21 |
| 9 |
 Liverpool | 15 | 20-18 | 20 |
| 10 |
Wanderers | 15 | 16-21 | 20 |
| 11 |
Danubio | 15 | 17-21 | 18 |
| 12 |
Cerro Largo | 15 | 16-19 | 17 |
| 13 |
 Boston River | 15 | 14-20 | 17 |
| 14 |
Juventud | 15 | 17-22 | 15 |
| 15 |
Progreso | 15 | 12-23 | 10 |
| 16 |
 Cerro | 15 | 8-24 | 10 |
