icon back

Match Prediction

PSV vs Excelsior Prediction

Finished
Netherlands flag Netherlands
Eredivisie

PSV

€275.00m

10 Jan14:00
5 : 1

Excelsior

€16.25m

Preview

PSV vs Excelsior Prediction Eredivisie

PSV vs Excelsior Prediction: Full Match Analysis and Best Bets

Welcome to our PSV vs Excelsior prediction, where we break down everything you need to know about this Eredivisie fixture set for Saturday, January 10, 2026, at Philips Stadion. With PSV Eindhoven in top form and Excelsior looking to cause an upset, our detailed analysis covers team tactics, recent form, injuries, head to head stats, and the best betting odds. Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just curious about the match, this preview will guide you through the numbers and the narrative.

PSV Eindhoven vs Excelsior: Team Form and Tactical Overview

PSV Eindhoven, or simply PSV, are flying high at the top of the Eredivisie table. With 46 points from 17 matches—15 wins, 1 draw, and just 1 loss—they are the team to beat this season. Peter Bosz has his side playing fast, attacking football, and their six consecutive home wins at Philips Stadion speak volumes about their dominance. Recent results include a 2-1 win over FC Utrecht, a 3-0 cup victory against GVVV Veenendaal, and a dramatic 4-3 triumph against Heracles. PSV's tactical approach is possession-based and aggressive, often overwhelming opponents with their pace and technical quality.

Excelsior, on the other hand, find themselves in 12th place with 19 points from 16 matches. Their recent form is a mixed bag: a 2-1 win against PEC Zwolle and a stunning 2-1 away win at Ajax, but also a 0-2 defeat to FC Groningen. Excelsior's tactical plan is more pragmatic, focusing on defensive organization and quick transitions. They know they’ll see less of the ball, so expect them to sit deep and look for rare counter-attacking opportunities.

Head to Head: PSV vs Excelsior

  • PSV vs Excelsior head to head is overwhelmingly in favor of the home side. In their last 18 meetings, PSV have won 17, with just one draw and zero wins for Excelsior.
  • Across all 24 games since 2006, PSV have 22 wins and 2 draws, with a goal difference of 74-21.
  • The last encounter ended 2-1 for PSV, but the previous season saw a wild 5-4 scoreline, showing Excelsior can sometimes surprise.

Injuries and Suspensions: Who’s In and Who’s Out?

  • PSV Eindhoven are missing several key players due to injuries and international duty, including C. Driouech, N. Olij, Ismael Saibari, and Adamo Nagalo. Joey Veerman, a creative force, is at risk of suspension with four yellow cards, while Sergiño Dest faces similar disciplinary concerns.
  • Excelsior are also dealing with a long injury list. Key absentees include C. Nadje, S. van Gassel, L. Hartjes, and M. Tielemans. Several others are doubtful or recovering, which could limit their options from the bench.

Key Stats and Interesting Facts

  • PSV have scored 57 goals and Excelsior 15 in their last 18 meetings.
  • PSV have a 100% win rate against Excelsior in their past four matches.
  • Joey Veerman is second in the league for big chances created, while Excelsior’s Stijn van Gassel is second in saves per match—he’ll likely be busy again.
  • PSV’s squad value is €275 million compared to Excelsior’s €16.25 million.

Expected Match Stats and Tactical Insights

  • Projected ball possession: 73% PSV, 27% Excelsior
  • Total shots: 17 for PSV, 6 for Excelsior
  • Shots on goal: 7 for PSV, 2 for Excelsior
  • Expected corners: 7 for PSV, 2 for Excelsior
  • Yellow cards: 1 for PSV, 2 for Excelsior

PSV vs Excelsior Prediction: Betting Odds and AI Tips

The bookmakers are not pulling any punches: a home win is priced at just 1.18, a draw at 8.9, and an Excelsior win at a whopping 17.0. The gulf in quality is clear, and the numbers back it up.

  • Our AI system’s best tip: PSV to win by at least two goals (H1), with a confidence of 10/10 and odds of 1.47. The data points to a comfortable home victory.
  • 1x2 prediction: Home win (1), confidence level 10/10, odds 1.18.
  • Over/Under market: Over 2.5 total goals is recommended, with a trust score of 5.1 and odds of 1.25. PSV’s attack is likely to deliver multiple goals, and Excelsior’s defense is leaky on the road.
  • Final score prediction: 3:0 in favor of PSV, with a projected half-time score of 1:0.

Why These Predictions Make Sense

  • PSV’s recent home form is exceptional, and their dominance in head to head meetings with Excelsior is hard to ignore.
  • Despite some injury concerns, PSV’s squad depth and tactical discipline should see them control the match from start to finish.
  • Excelsior have shown they can spring a surprise—like their win at Ajax—but their away record against PSV is dire.
  • With PSV expected to control possession and create plenty of chances, a multi-goal win is the logical PSV vs Excelsior prediction.

Conclusion: PSV vs Excelsior Prediction and Best Bets

All signs point to a dominant performance from PSV Eindhoven in this Eredivisie encounter. The betting odds, recent form, and head to head record all support a confident home win. Our PSV vs Excelsior prediction is a 3:0 victory for the hosts, with the best value found in backing PSV to win by at least two goals and over 2.5 total goals. For those seeking a safer option, the straight home win is as close to a sure thing as you’ll find this weekend.

Stay tuned to NerdyTips for more Eredivisie insights, and good luck with your bets!

Read More

AI Predictions
Powered by NerdyTips Logo

Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for PSV vs Excelsior

H1 -213

H1
10/10

1x2 Tip

1 -556

PSV is expected to win with odds of -556
10/10

Total Goals

Over 2.5 -385

At least 3 goals will be scored in the match
5/10

Both Teams To Score

No 107

At least one team is not expected to score
4/10
Both Teams To Score

Half-Time Score

1:0

Correct Score

3:0

Stats Predictions

1.94
xG
0.6
73%
Ball Possession
27%
17
Total Shots
6
7
Shots on Goal
2
5
Shots Off Goal
2
7
Corners
2
1
Yellow Cards
2

Average / Match

1.68
Expected Goals
1.38
3.7
Total Goals
2.3
2.7
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Against
1.3
58%
Possession
48%
13.9
Total Shots
12.7
5.7
Shots on Goal
4.2
4.9
Shots off Goal
5.2
10.3
Fouls
13.5
6.3
Corners
5.1
1.7
Offsides
0.9
1.56
Yellow Cards
1.7
528
Total Passes
408

Overview Last 10 Matches

8
Wins
4
9
Over 1.5 Goals
7
7
Over 2.5 Goals
5
4
Over 3.5 Goals
1
6
Both Teams Scored
5
1
Unexpected Wins
1
0
Unexpected Loses
1

Head to Head

PSV
20 - 1 - 0
Excelsior
Excelsior Excelsior 27-Sep-25
1:2
PSV PSV
PSV PSV 14-Jan-25
5:4
Excelsior Excelsior
Excelsior Excelsior 02-Apr-24
0:2
PSV PSV
PSV PSV 13-Jan-24
3:1
Excelsior Excelsior
PSV PSV 08-Apr-23
4:0
Excelsior Excelsior
Excelsior Excelsior 28-Aug-22
1:6
PSV PSV
Excelsior Excelsior 02-Mar-19
0:2
PSV PSV
PSV PSV 07-Dec-18
6:0
Excelsior Excelsior
Excelsior Excelsior 26-Sep-18
0:4
PSV PSV
PSV PSV 07-Feb-18
1:0
Excelsior Excelsior

Profile time Recent Matches of PSV

17 Jan Sittard Sittard.
-
PSV. PSV
14 JanW Den Bosch Den Bosch.
1:4
PSV. PSV
10 JanW PSV PSV.
5:1
Excelsior. Excelsior
21 DecW Utrecht Utrecht.
1:2
PSV. PSV
16 DecW PSV PSV.
3:0
GVVV. GVVV
13 DecW PSV PSV.
4:3
Heracles. Heracles
09 DecL PSV PSV.
2:3
Atl. Madrid. Atl. Madrid
06 DecW Heerenveen Heerenveen.
0:2
PSV. PSV
30 NovW PSV PSV.
3:0
FC Volendam. FC Volendam
26 NovW Liverpool Liverpool.
1:4
PSV. PSV

Profile time Recent Matches of Excelsior

10 JanLPSV PSV.
5:1
Excelsior.Excelsior
20 DecWExcelsior Excelsior.
2:1
Zwolle.Zwolle
05 DecLExcelsior Excelsior.
0:2
Groningen.Groningen
29 NovWExcelsior Excelsior.
1:0
NAC Breda.NAC Breda
22 NovWAjax Ajax.
1:2
Excelsior.Excelsior
08 NovLExcelsior Excelsior.
1:2
Heracles.Heracles
01 NovDTelstar Telstar.
2:2
Excelsior.Excelsior
29 OctLExcelsior Excelsior.
1:0
Excelsior.Excelsior
26 OctLGA Eagles GA Eagles.
2:0
Excelsior.Excelsior
19 OctWExcelsior Excelsior.
1:0
Sittard.Sittard

Netherlands - Eredivisie Netherlands - Eredivisie

Team Matches Goals Points
1 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven18
57-22
49
2 Feyenoord Feyenoord18
44-23
36
3 Ajax Ajax18
35-24
33
4 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen17
43-29
29
5 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar17
32-28
28
6 Groningen Groningen18
25-22
28
7 Twente Twente18
27-22
26
8 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterd18
20-31
26
9 Heerenveen Heerenveen18
31-28
24
10 Utrecht Utrecht17
28-23
23
11 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittar18
27-31
22
12 GO Ahead Eagles GO Ahead Eagle18
28-31
20
13 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle18
22-39
20
14 Excelsior Excelsior17
17-32
19
15 Telstar Telstar18
22-30
15
16 NAC Breda NAC Breda18
16-26
14
17 FC Volendam FC Volendam18
19-32
14
18 Heracles Heracles18
26-46
14
Video preview
You might also like:
Predictions - Dortmund vs St. Pauli Predictions - Angers vs Marseille Predictions - Real Sociedad vs Barcelona Predictions - Brighton vs Bournemouth Predictions - Elche vs Sevilla
Log In
Register
Bankers
All Matches