Real Sociedad II vs Malaga Prediction

Real Sociedad II vs Malaga prediction for Monday night points

The Real Sociedad II vs Malaga prediction starts with a simple idea: Monday nights in San Sebastián rarely feel simple. On 2026-02-16, Sanse welcome Málaga to the Reale Arena at 19:30 GMT (20:30 local time) for Round 26 of the Segunda División, and the table gives this one real weight. Málaga arrive 5th on 41 points chasing promotion, while Real Sociedad II sit 17th on 28 points, still close enough to the bottom four to keep everyone checking the live table like it’s a group chat.

Context, form, and why this game has edge

Málaga’s recent run reads like a team that has finally found its rhythm: four wins in their last five league matches (W-L-W-W-W), including valuable away results at Sporting Gijón and Córdoba. Sanse, meanwhile, are living the classic “young team season”: flashes of good football, followed by spells where the points disappear. Their latest boost was a 2-1 win over Andorra, but the overall sequence (W-D-L-D-D) still screams “work in progress.”

Key people and absences to watch

This match is also a test of who can cope best with missing pieces. Málaga’s injury list is long enough to need its own press conference, while Sanse are not exactly at full power either.

• Sanse danger man: Gorka Carrera leads the hosts with 10 goals and will fancy his chances if Málaga’s back line loses shape.
• Sanse organizer: Luken Beitia, the 21-year-old captain, anchors the defence and sets play from deep (already well over 700 passes this season).
• Sanse creator: Dani Díaz is a steady source of threat, leading the team in shots on target per match.
• Málaga finisher: Chupete tops the visitors’ scoring chart and is usually the one on the end of the move.
• Málaga supplier: David Larrubia has created the most big chances (8) for Málaga, a key detail for any sports betting read.
• Málaga safety net: Veteran keeper Alfonso Herrero has been huge in keeping their promotion push calm.

Injuries and suspensions: Sanse miss Iker Calderón and Iñaki Rupérez, while Alberto Dadie is suspended. Málaga are without Ramón Enríquez, Álex Pastor, Luismi Sánchez, Darko Brašanac, Dani Sánchez, and Víctor García, but Diego Murillo is expected back after a yellow-card suspension.

How it may look on the pitch (and on the nerves)

Ion Ansotegi has said his side cannot simply defend for 90 minutes, and that fits Sanse’s identity: brave on the ball, trying to move it side to side. Málaga, now led by Juan Francisco Funes (promoted from Atlético Malagueño in November 2025), often line up 4-2-3.15 or 4-3-3, looking for high recoveries through players like Murillo and Izan Merino before feeding runners quickly. Youth versus experience is the theme, even if Málaga’s injuries force more academy minutes than planned.

Real Sociedad II vs Malaga prediction: tips, odds, and AI call

The betting odds show a tight game: Home win 3.15, Draw 3.35, Away win 2.45. That away price reflects Málaga’s stronger league position and form, but Sanse’s home energy keeps it from being shorter.

• Best tip (NerdyTips): AS (away team will score) at 1.28 odds, trust 7.5/10.
• 1x2 prediction: 2 (Málaga win) at 2.45 odds, confidence 4.1.
• Goals market: Under 3.5 goals at 1.34 odds, trust 4.0.
• AI correct score: 1:2, with an anticipated half-time score of 0:1.

Those picks connect neatly with the story. Málaga’s away scoring angle (AS) fits a team creating big chances through Larrubia and finishing through Chupete, while Sanse’s need to be “brave” can leave transition gaps. Under 3.5 also feels logical in Segunda División terms: even promotion chasers often win by small margins, and Herrero’s presence helps keep games controlled.

For head to head context, Sanse won the last meeting on 2022-02-19 by 2-0 (with Real Sociedad II priced 2.13 and Málaga 3.5), and Málaga took the reverse fixture this season 1-0 in August 2025 thanks to a late Rafa Rodríguez goal. Add in recent surprise results—Sanse’s 0-3 win at La Coruna at massive 7.5 odds, and Málaga’s unexpected 1-1 draw at Valladolid priced at 5.1—and you get a match where discipline matters as much as talent.

Final lean for sports betting: Málaga to score looks like the most reliable route, and the Real Sociedad II vs Malaga prediction on 1x2 edges toward an away win, 1-2, with Málaga leading 0-1 at the break. If Sanse make it messy, it’s usually because they’ve earned it—and because Segunda División loves ruining everyone’s accumulator.