Rivadavia vs Sarmiento Junin Prediction

Rivadavia vs Sarmiento Junin prediction for a tight night

The Rivadavia vs Sarmiento Junin Prediction brings us to Mendoza for a late kick-off that should feel like classic Argentine league football: tactical, tense, and decided by details. Independiente Rivadavia host Sarmiento de Junín at the Estadio Bautista Gargantini (around 24,000 seats) on 2026-02-04 at 00:15 GMT (February 3, 18:15 local time), in Liga Profesional Argentina Apertura, Fecha 3. Rivadavia arrive flying around 4th in the early table, while Sarmiento sit closer to mid-pack (about 14th) and looking for a response after a narrow loss.

Setting the scene in Mendoza: styles make the story

Rivadavia under Alfredo Berti have built a reputation for doing the “simple” things well: staying compact, breaking quickly, and making opponents work for every clean shot. They come in with momentum after a 2-1 win over Huracán, and the home pitch has been kind to them too, with only one defeat in their last five home league games. This is the kind of ground where visitors often discover that the ball moves faster for the home team.

• Rivadavia approach: likely 4-3-3 or 4-2-3.25, using width and quick transitions.
• Key threats: Alex Arce as the main finisher, Sebastián Villa for pace and delivery, and goalkeeper Ezequiel Centurión setting the base.
• Team news: Victorio Ramis is out with a thigh injury; otherwise the squad is mostly available, with a couple of minor fitness checks.

Sarmiento, coached by Facundo Sava, rarely show up to play open, chaotic football on the road. Their early season profile is familiar: organized, stubborn, and sometimes short of ideas in the final third. A 1-0 loss to Argentinos Juniors is not a crisis, but it does underline the problem—goals can be hard to find.

• Sarmiento setup: often 4-4-2 or 5-3-2, protecting the middle and hunting set-pieces.
• Key men: Diego Churín as the reference point up front and Javier Burrai in goal to keep it close.
• New factor: Mauricio “Caramelo” Martínez (signed Jan 28, 2026) could debut or play a big role in calming the midfield.
• Absences: Joel Godoy and G. Gonzalez remain out long-term (cruciate injuries); Jhon Rentería and Osmar Giménez are away on international duty.

The head to head adds to the “don’t overreact” feel: in the last 11 meetings, Sarmiento edge it (4 wins to Rivadavia’s 3, plus 4 draws). Balanced series, balanced expectations—just with Rivadavia looking sharper right now.

Recent context that keeps bettors humble

Both teams have already shown they can rip up the script. Rivadavia shocked Defensa y Justicia away on 2025-11-17, winning 0-2 as a big underdog (win odds were 4.9). Sarmiento also pulled a gritty surprise on 2025-11-15, drawing 1-1 away at San Lorenzo with huge odds (6.0). In other words: both know how to survive when the plan is “suffer first, smile later.”

Betting odds and NerdyTips angle

The market leans home, but not overwhelmingly. Current 1X2 betting odds are 1.98 (Rivadavia), 3.25 (draw), and 4.9 (Sarmiento). That fits the expected game script: Rivadavia on the front foot, Sarmiento trying to keep the match in the narrow channels.

• Main NerdyTips bet: Under 2.5 total goals at 1.47 (trust level 5.6/10).
• AI under/over pick: Under 2.5 again, trust score 4.4, odds 1.47.
• 1X2 prediction: Home win (1) with confidence 4.6 and odds 1.98.
• Correct score call: 1-0, with a 0-0 first half.

The stats behind this Rivadavia vs Sarmiento Junin prediction point toward control without chaos: projected possession 53% to 47%, shots 13 to 8, on-target 4 to 3. Corners are estimated at 8 total (5-3), which hints at steady pressure rather than a constant wave. Cards are also on the menu—2 yellows for Rivadavia, 3 for Sarmiento—exactly what you’d expect if Sarmiento spend long spells defending their box.

Put it all together and the most sensible path is low total goals, with Rivadavia’s higher squad value (€28.67m vs €11.20m) and home comfort giving them the edge. If this ends 1-0 after a cagey first half, nobody in Mendoza will complain—except maybe anyone who was hoping for a fireworks show.