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Match Prediction

River Plate vs Sarmiento Junin Prediction

Finished

River Plate

€6.41m

12 Oct18:15
0 : 1

Sarmiento

€12.62m

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River Plate vs Sarmiento Prediction Liga Profesional Argentina

River Plate vs Sarmiento Junin Prediction: Odds, Tips & Analysis

If you’re searching for the best River Plate vs Sarmiento Junin prediction, you’ve come to the right place. This Liga Profesional Argentina fixture on October 12, 2025, promises plenty of drama, not least because River Plate will take the field at the Estadio Mâs Monumental with a squad resembling a hospital waiting room. Let’s break down the team news, tactics, betting odds, and our AI’s top tips for sports betting fans.

Team News: River Plate’s Patchwork XI Faces a Test

River Plate, or simply “River” to their fans, are in a real bind for this one. The injury list reads like a who’s who of their starting eleven: Matías Rojas, Enzo Pérez, Pity Martínez, Germán Pezzella, and more are either out or racing the clock to return. Even coach Marcelo Gallardo has been vocal about his frustration, especially since the match falls during the FIFA international break. Key players like Montiel, Acuña, and Quintero are away on national team duty, and Juan Portillo plus Maximiliano Salas are suspended. It’s not all doom and gloom, though—young Lautaro Rivero, who once sold alfajores on the streets, is set to start in defense and has earned his first Argentina call-up.

Despite their possession-based, attacking style, River have struggled of late. Only one win in their last six matches, averaging less than a goal per game, is not what fans expect from a team sitting fourth in the standings. Their inefficiency in front of goal and defensive lapses have cost them dearly, even if they still dominate the ball (expect around 67% possession here).

Sarmiento Junin: Steady, Resilient, and Ready to Frustrate

Sarmiento Junin, or just “Sarmiento,” are quietly confident. While they don’t boast the star power or budget of River, they’re ninth in the league and have shown a knack for grinding out results. Their away form at the Monumental is impressive: one win, two draws, and just one loss in their last four visits. They’ve kept clean sheets in 42% of their last 12 away games—no small feat.

With Jhon Rentería away on international duty and Pablo Magnin still recovering from injury, Sarmiento will stick to their tried-and-true tactics: strong defensive lines and quick counter-attacks. Expect them to cede possession (around 33%) but look for opportunities to pounce on River’s makeshift defense.

Head to Head: History Favors River, But…

  • Last 9 meetings: River Plate 5 wins, Sarmiento 1 win, 3 draws
  • Most common result: 1-1
  • Last match: River Plate 1-0 Sarmiento (July 2024)

Bookmakers have River as heavy favorites (1.44 for a home win), but recent form and absences make this less of a sure thing than the odds suggest.

River Plate vs Sarmiento Junin Prediction & Betting Tips

Now, let’s get to the part every sports betting fan loves: the River Plate vs Sarmiento Junin prediction and tips. Our AI analysis chewed through all the stats, head to head records, and current betting odds to come up with the smartest bets for this match.

  1. Under 3.5 Goals (Odds: 1.25, Trust Score: 7.6/10)
    With River’s attacking woes and Sarmiento’s defensive focus, don’t expect fireworks. Our AI strongly recommends under 3.5 goals as the best tip. Both teams have been involved in low-scoring games recently, and with so many absentees for River, goals could be at a premium.
  2. 1x2 Market: Away Win (Odds: 7.6, Trust Score: 2.1/10)
    If you’re feeling brave (or lucky), the AI does give a slim nod to Sarmiento pulling off a shock win—just like they did away to Velez Sarsfield earlier this year. The trust rating isn’t high, but the odds are juicy.
  3. Predicted Score: 0-1 Sarmiento
    The AI’s simulated match sees Sarmiento sneaking a 1-0 win, with the only goal coming in the first half. River may dominate possession and shots, but Sarmiento’s disciplined defense could hold firm.

Final Thoughts: Should You Trust the AI?

All signs point to a tight, tactical battle. River Plate’s squad depth will be tested, and Sarmiento Junin have shown they can frustrate the big boys. For sports betting fans, the under 3.5 goals market is the safest play, but if you fancy a punt, the away win at long odds could be worth a small stake. Either way, our River Plate vs Sarmiento Junin prediction is that this will be a match decided by fine margins, not fireworks.

Whether you’re a die-hard fan or just looking for smart betting tips, this is one to watch—and maybe one to bet on, if you like your odds long and your nerves tested!

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AI Predictions
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Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for River Plate vs Sarmiento

U3.5 -400

No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -400
7/10

1x2 Tip

2 660

Sarmiento is expected to win with odds of 660
2/10

Total Goals

Under 3.5 -400

No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match
7/10

Both Teams To Score

No -175

At least one team is not expected to score
1/10

Bet Builder Tip

X2&U4.5 198

Away win/draw and under 4.5 goals
1/10
Both Teams To Score

Correct Score

0:1

Stats Predictions

67%
Ball Possession
33%
15
Total Shots
6
4
Shots on Goal
1
5
Shots Off Goal
2
7
Corners
2
2
Yellow Cards
3

Average / Match

0.79
Expected Goals
0.9
2.3
Total Goals
1.9
1
Goals Scored
0.8
1.3
Goals Against
1.1
58%
Possession
49%
12.8
Total Shots
10
4
Shots on Goal
3.1
4.6
Shots off Goal
4.2
13.3
Fouls
15.5
6.1
Corners
4.4
1.5
Offsides
2
4
Yellow Cards
2.8
0.5
Red Cards
0
426
Total Passes
307

Overview Last 10 Matches

3
Wins
3
8
Over 1.5 Goals
5
5
Over 2.5 Goals
3
1
Over 3.5 Goals
2
6
Both Teams Scored
2
0
Unexpected Wins
0
1
Unexpected Loses
0

Head to Head

River Plate
5 - 2 - 1
Sarmiento Junin
Sarmiento Junin Sarmiento 06-Apr-25
1:1
River Plate River Plate
River Plate River Plate 28-Jul-24
1:0
Sarmiento Sarmiento Junin
Sarmiento Junin Sarmiento 20-Mar-23
0:2
River Plate River Plate
River Plate River Plate 01-Aug-22
1:2
Sarmiento Sarmiento Junin
Sarmiento Junin Sarmiento 01-May-22
0:7
River Plate River Plate
Sarmiento Junin Sarmiento 30-Aug-21
1:2
River Plate River Plate
River Plate River Plate 23-Apr-17
1:1
Sarmiento Sarmiento Junin
Sarmiento Junin Sarmiento 16-Feb-15
1:4
River Plate River Plate

Profile time Recent Matches of River Plate

28 Jan River Plate River Plate.
-
Gimnasia L.P. Gimnasia L.P.
24 JanW Barracas Barracas .
0:1
River Plate. River Plate

Profile time Recent Matches of Sarmiento

30 JanSarmiento Sarmiento.
-
Banfield.Banfield
26 JanLArgentino Argentino.
1:0
Sarmiento.Sarmiento

Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Team Matches Goals Points
1 Rosario Central Rosario16
18-8
31
2 Lanus Lanus16
20-13
30
3 Deportivo Riestra Deportivo16
19-12
28
4 Velez Sarsfield Velez16
19-12
26
5 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo16
13-11
24
6 River Plate River Plate16
20-15
22
7 Gimnasia L.P. Gimnasia L.P.16
14-16
22
8 Talleres Cordoba Talleres16
9-12
21
9 Sarmiento Junin Sarmiento16
13-17
20
10 San Martin S.J. San Martin16
13-16
19
11 Independiente Independiente16
14-13
18
12 Atletico Tucuman Atletico16
17-22
18
13 Instituto Cordoba Instituto16
9-17
16
14 Godoy Cruz Godoy Cruz16
11-19
12
15 Platense Platense16
12-25
12
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