Match Prediction
Match Prediction
World
Preview
Mark your calendars for 2026-02-26 at 17:45 GMT: this Samsunspor vs Shkendija prediction preview covers the second leg of the UEFA Europa Conference League knockout round play-off at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu. Samsunspor bring a slim 1-0 advantage from Skopje, where Marius Mouandilmadji struck in the 77th minute. It’s the kind of lead that feels comforting… right until the first scary counter-attack arrives.
This match is more than a regular European night. It’s a historic milestone: the first time either club has reached the knockout stages of a major UEFA competition, and Shkendija are also the first North Macedonian club to get this far in the UEFA Europa Conference League. The first leg could have looked very different too—Samsunspor’s Cherif Ndiaye missed a 6th-minute penalty, leaving the door open for a much more tense return match.
Samsunspor, now under Thorsten Fink (the club’s third straight German coach), lean toward a possession-first 4-2-3-1. Fink has spoken about control and transitions, and you can see the idea: keep the ball, squeeze the space, and make the opponent chase until they crack. The problem is that “control” does not automatically equal “goals,” as their recent 0-0 league draw with Fatih Karagümrük showed—66% possession, but no shots on target.
Shkendija, guided by Jeton Beqiri for over two years, are built for the kind of European tie where frustration becomes a weapon. They were defensively organized in the first leg and are expected to play a pragmatic counter-attacking plan again, looking for the away goal that flips the story.
On nerdytips.com we always try to connect form, match context, and betting odds into a readable plan for sports betting. The market strongly leans home: Home win 1.35, Draw 5.5, Away win 11.5. That fits the squad value gap too—Samsunspor at €56.78m versus Shkendija at €6.82m—but football has a long memory for surprises.
Our models forecast a game that looks one-sided in territory but not necessarily in goals:
The funny part: shots on goal are projected at 0-0. That reads like a spreadsheet having a bad day, but it also matches the wider theme—Samsunspor can dominate without finishing, and Shkendija can defend deep and live for a few decisive moments.
After analyzing historical patterns and current odds, the most valuable angle is under 3.5 goals (max three total). It comes with odds of 1.5 and a trust score of 5.5/10. With Samsunspor protecting a lead and Shkendija likely cautious early, this line fits a second leg where the first half may be played with the handbrake on.
The main Samsunspor vs Shkendija prediction for the 1X2 market is X2 at odds of 3.5, but with low confidence (2.0). This is less about saying “Shkendija are better” and more about acknowledging match dynamics: Samsunspor have shown they can be held (remember the surprising 0:0 at Fenerbahce on 2025-10-05, with huge pre-match odds against them), and Shkendija already proved they can steal big away wins (their 1:2 at FCSB on 2025-07-30 at odds of 10.25).
For readers looking for head to head context, this tie’s “head to head” story so far screams control, nerves, and small margins. If Samsunspor stay patient and Shkendija stay clinical, a draw is very live—while the safer sports betting route remains under 3.5 goals for this Samsunspor vs Shkendija prediction.
Read More
U3.5 -200
No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -200X2 255
Shkendija to win or drawUnder 3.5 -200
No more than 3 goals will be scored in the matchYes 123
Both teams are expected to scoreX2&U5.5 291
Away win/draw and under 5.5 goals
0:0
1:1
|
|
1
-
0
-
0
|
|
 Shkendija |
19-Feb-26
0:1
| Samsunspor  |
Recent Matches of Samsunspor| 12 Mar |
Samsunspor
| - |
Vallecano
| - | |
| 08 Mar | L |
Fenerbahce
| 3 |
Samsunspor
| 2 |
| 05 Mar | W |
Antalyaspor
| 0 |
Samsunspor
| 2 |
| 01 Mar | D |
Samsunspor
| 0 |
Gaziantep FK
| 0 |
| 26 Feb | W |
Samsunspor
| 4 |
Shkendija
| 0 |
| 22 Feb | D |
Karagumruk
| 0 |
Samsunspor
| 0 |
| 19 Feb | W |
Shkendija
| 0 |
Samsunspor
| 1 |
| 13 Feb | L |
Antalyaspor
| 3 |
Samsunspor
| 1 |
| 07 Feb | L |
Samsunspor
| 0 |
Trabzonspor
| 3 |
| 03 Feb | W |
Samsunspor
| 2 |
Bodrumspor
| 0 |
Recent Matches of Shkendija
| 09 Mar | D | Shkendija |
1 |  Akademija |
1 |
| 05 Mar | W |  Vardar |
0 | Shkendija |
1 |
| 02 Mar | W | Shkendija |
2 |  Pelister |
1 |
| 26 Feb | L | Samsunspor |
4 | Shkendija |
0 |
| 22 Feb | W |  Sileks |
1 | Shkendija |
2 |
| 19 Feb | L | Shkendija |
0 | Samsunspor |
1 |
| 14 Feb | W |  Tikves |
1 | Shkendija |
4 |
| 10 Feb | W | Shkendija |
2 |  Struga |
0 |
| 01 Feb | D |  Ordabasy |
1 | Shkendija |
1 |
| 28 Jan | W |  FK Sarajevo |
2 | Shkendija |
3 |
World - UEFA Europa Conference League| Team | Matches | Goals | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Strasbourg | 6 | 11-5 | 16 |
| 2 |
Raków | 6 | 9-2 | 14 |
| 3 |
AEK Athens FC | 6 | 14-7 | 13 |
| 4 |
Sparta Praha | 6 | 10-3 | 13 |
| 5 |
Rayo Vallecano | 6 | 13-7 | 13 |
| 6 |
Shakhtar | 6 | 10-5 | 13 |
| 7 |
FSV Mainz 05 | 6 | 7-3 | 13 |
| 8 |
AEK Larnaca | 6 | 7-1 | 12 |
| 9 |
Lausanne | 6 | 6-3 | 11 |
| 10 |
Crystal Palace | 6 | 11-6 | 10 |
| 11 |
Lech Poznan | 6 | 12-8 | 10 |
| 12 |
Samsunspor | 6 | 10-6 | 10 |
| 13 |
Celje | 6 | 8-7 | 10 |
| 14 |
AZ Alkmaar | 6 | 7-7 | 10 |
| 15 |
Fiorentina | 6 | 8-5 | 9 |
| 16 |
HNK Rijeka | 6 | 5-2 | 9 |
| 17 |
Jagiellonia | 6 | 5-4 | 9 |
| 18 |
Omonia Nicosia | 6 | 5-4 | 8 |
| 19 |
FC Noah | 6 | 6-7 | 8 |
| 20 |
Drita | 6 | 4-8 | 8 |
| 21 |
KuPS | 6 | 6-5 | 7 |
| 22 |
Shkendija | 6 | 4-5 | 7 |
| 23 |
Zrinjski | 6 | 8-10 | 7 |
| 24 |
Sigma Olomouc | 6 | 7-9 | 7 |
| 25 |
Universitatea | 6 | 6-8 | 7 |
| 26 |
Lincoln Red Imps | 6 | 7-15 | 7 |
| 27 |
Dynamo Kyiv | 6 | 9-9 | 6 |
| 28 |
Legia Warszawa | 6 | 8-8 | 6 |
| 29 |
Slovan | 6 | 5-9 | 6 |
| 30 |
Breidablik | 6 | 6-11 | 5 |
| 31 |
Shamrock | 6 | 7-13 | 4 |
| 32 |
BK Hacken | 6 | 5-8 | 3 |
| 33 |
Hamrun | 6 | 4-11 | 3 |
| 34 |
Shelbourne | 6 | 0-7 | 2 |
| 35 |
Aberdeen | 6 | 3-14 | 2 |
| 36 |
Rapid Vienna | 6 | 3-14 | 1 |
