Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor Prediction

Black Sea Derby prediction: Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor story

The Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor prediction writes itself as soon as you look at the calendar: February 7, 2026, 17:00 GMT, under the lights of Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, with a derby crowd that never needs a warm-up. Trabzonspor arrive 3rd on 42 points, Samsunspor sit 7th with 30, and yet the odds (2.55 home, 3.35 draw, 2.9 away) say this will be decided by details, not reputations.

Both teams come in after Turkish Cup action on February 3. Samsunspor handled Bodrum FK 2-0 and looked like a side enjoying its own company. Trabzonspor, meanwhile, were held to a 0-0 by Fethiyespor, another reminder that chance creation is fine—finishing is the part that pays rent.

Derby context, form, and why this feels tight

Samsunspor’s league run has been built on resilience: unbeaten since mid-December 2025, including a 1-0 win over Kasımpaşa and a 0-0 with Kocaelispor. They’ve also already shown they can frustrate elite opponents; just ask Fenerbahçe, who were priced at 1.63 and still left with a 0-0 on October 5, 2025.

Trabzonspor’s season has been steadier overall—only two league losses—and their away record is one of the best around (6 wins in 10 away league matches). They even walked out of Galatasaray’s stadium with a 0-0 on November 1, 2025, despite huge odds (6.37). That result screamed “we can suffer,” which is a useful derby skill.

Tactical notes: two 4-2-3-1 shapes, different problems

Thomas Reis has Samsunspor organized and patient, usually in a 4-2-3-1 with a strong defensive base. At home they often like to keep the ball (they’ve been known to push over 60% possession in Samsun), but injuries could force a more direct plan.

• Samsunspor absences: Emre Kılınç (calf), Afonso Sousa (ankle), Tanguy Coulibaly (ligament), plus Bedirhan Çetin (ACL).
• Key outlets: Marius Mouandilmadji as the reference point, Carlo Holse asked to knit play together, and Rick van Drongelen leading the defensive line.

Fatih Tekke, a Trabzonspor legend now in the away dugout, also leans 4-2-3-1. His team can travel well, but injuries are biting hard, especially in wide areas and the back line.

• Trabzonspor absences: Oleksandr Zubkov (muscle), Edin Višća (broken leg), Stefan Savić (hamstring), Rayyan Baniya (thigh), Boran Başkan (suspended).
• Key pieces: Paul Onuachu’s return is huge (12 league goals), Ernest Muçi as the main creator, and André Onana providing calm in goal.

The head to head gives Samsunspor belief too: they won 2-1 in the most recent meeting (January 4, 2025), and the first meeting of this season ended 1-1, with Mouandilmadji scoring a late equalizer. Derbies don’t do foregone conclusions—mostly because they enjoy being dramatic.

Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor prediction: AI picks and betting tips

Now for the numbers that guide our betting tips. NerdyTips’ best-rated angle is simple: AS (Trabzonspor to score), trust 7.4/10, odds 1.3. That fits the match script: Samsunspor are missing creators, while Trabzonspor still bring Onuachu plus Muçi, and our projected shot map leans away—15 total shots and 5 on target for Trabzonspor versus 12 and 3 for Samsunspor.

What the model expects (and what it means for markets)

• Full-time 1X2 lean: Away win (2) at 2.9 odds, but with low trust (2.1) — more “edge” than “banker.”
• Goals: Under 3.5 at 1.3.35 odds, trust 4.5 — consistent with a tense derby rhythm.
• Correct score: 0:1, with 0:0 at half-time — a slow burn, then one moment decides it.

Possession is projected almost even (49% vs 51%), and corners suggest mild Trabzonspor pressure (3-5, total 8). Even the discipline forecast is modest (1 yellow vs 2), which usually means the referee has a good day… or the players are saving their arguments for the second half.

Finally, the squad values (€57.65m vs €108.20m) hint at Trabzonspor’s deeper resources, but derby nights ignore spreadsheets. Still, for this Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor prediction, the cleanest route is: back Trabzonspor to find the net, expect a low-scoring game, and treat the away win as a value swing rather than a certainty.